Geez...The 0Z GFDL

AussieMark · #21 Postby **AussieMark** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:39 am

the GFDL works better on a system that is at least a tropical storm and not a system that is a invest or tropical depression. With those u get the crazy tracks

rockyman · #22 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:45 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:well if a hurricane doesnt form quickly near the Bahamas and strike New England within the next 24 hours then the GFDL was nuts this run: (everyone should remember this one )

That's the GFS...but still one to remember...

#23 Postby **linkerweather** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:04 am

rockyman wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:well if a hurricane doesnt form quickly near the Bahamas and strike New England within the next 24 hours then the GFDL was nuts this run: (everyone should remember this one )

That's the GFS...but still one to remember...

At that run was a 384 hour forecast

wxwatcher91 · #24 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:12 am

rockyman wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:well if a hurricane doesnt form quickly near the Bahamas and strike New England within the next 24 hours then the GFDL was nuts this run: (everyone should remember this one )

That's the GFS...but still one to remember...

ah yes sorry... excuse me while I clean my glasses lol

#25 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:29 am

Actually if anyplace along the Gulf Coast is meant to be hit it would be best that it happen to NO again. Most all of the residents are now evacuated, it can't flood much more and they have yet to spend the money and resources to fix the infrastructure.

So of all the rest of the Gulf coast a hit on LA again would be the best outcome in my opinion if a system is to get into the Gulf.

Of course we know this will play like fire in the media and on the minds of those evacuated.

Thunder44 · #26 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:38 am

If this system develops and the first track put out by TPC is anywhere near Louisana as a TS or hurricane, you are going to see the media hype this storm like no other storm before. No matter how weak it is. :eek:

#27 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:39 am

Thunder44 wrote:If this system develops and the first track put out by TPC is anywhere near Louisana as a TS or hurricane, you are going to see the media hype this storm like no other storm before. No matter how weak it is.

I agree with that, the GFDL is losing its mojo or mind hopefully with this prediction. :raincloud:

krysof · #28 Postby **krysof** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:45 am

The gfs shows it striking my area.

#29 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:46 am

krysof wrote:The gfs shows it striking my area.

you in the pcola area too?

krysof · #30 Postby **krysof** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:49 am

no, I'm in the northeast. I'm carefully tracking 93L.

#31 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:50 am

krysof wrote:no, I'm in the northeast. I'm carefully tracking 93L.

opps, so many systems, gets confusing, lol

krysof · #32 Postby **krysof** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:54 am

absolutely, 94L should definetelly be watched as well especially those in the gulf states and Florida.

#33 Postby **Windy** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:00 am

Is it just me, or is this a really, really, really messed up year?

Sorry, just got done looking at GFDL's doom plot. Fortunately, we know that nothing this far out ever verifies, so at least we know the one place it *isn't* going...

ameriwx2003 · #34 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:10 am

wxman57 wrote:
ericinmia wrote:The 00z candian also shows it....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... z/f120.gif

So does the 00z Euro but slower...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... z/f168.gif

Who knows... but if even a TS hits there... There are going to be a lot more problems, and some serious questions and doubts.
-Eric

They show it, but they move it north along the FL Peninsula not to New Orleans.

Yes and the GFS also mills it around and over Florida for several. days..
The GFDL was also making 92L a 162 kt Hurricane 3 or 4 Days ago and we we have seen how that panned out:):) So Lets see if the GFDL has a few more Model runs with this solution... before we start getting worried:):)

spinfan4eva · #35 Postby **spinfan4eva** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:17 am

That GFDL model is ummm Relentless!!!!!!!! :eek:

Bush needs to close the entire US coast to hurricanes and turn them away for the rest of 2005.

spinfan4eva · #36 Postby **spinfan4eva** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:21 am

krysof wrote:no, I'm in the northeast. I'm carefully tracking 93L.

I dont think I blame ya with a 93L model map like this. It could go anywhere :roll:

Thunder44 · #37 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:21 am

6z GFDL graphics is out on the PSU site and it takes a track still to Lousiana but much weaker. Just about 50mph TS.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

Note: It says 93L on the header but it's really the graphics for 94L.

Praxus · #38 Postby **Praxus** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:31 am

"remember originally Katrina was supposed to go into the Florida Panhandle and look what happened?"

Yeah but don't forget Oort had it heading to new orleans at the very beginning...his first call on katrina was very impressive. Didn't
forecast the southern dip but it still ended up in the same place.

#39 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:33 am

Hyperstorm · #40 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:35 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:The GFDL is always bashed on intensity....although sometimes it's way off....it has an impressive past in my book:::

FORECASTING A CAT 4 CHARLEY BY FLORIDA
FORECASTING A CAT 5 IVAN SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
FORECASTING A SOUTHERN MOVEMENT AND A RAPID INCREASE IN GULF DURING HURRICANE KATRINA

Hopefully...it is not correct. Let's wait and see. Quite frankly...Im ready for Christmas.

It really intensifies many more system incorrectly than not. Sometimes it even disappates systems too much. To me it's just matter of doing it so much, that has to get it right once in a while Remember this system hasn't even formed yet, which make it less reliable. It was making a 92L a Cat 5 hurricane before the Lesser Antillies the other day.

thank you Thunder44! I have heard just way to often people saying about the GFDL being smart with intensity and bringing up all these wicked cat 4-5 canes. If someone can find an instance where the GFDL accurately predicted a storm WEAKENING, I will give the model a little more thought...

If my memory serves me right, the GFDL accurately forecasted the sudden and unexpected weakening of Lili before it made landfall in Lousiana in 2002... But, just because it predicted the weakening for ONE storm, doesn't make it any more reliable at this point in time.

Geez...The 0Z GFDL

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