Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pic,Models Thread

[jlauderdal]

Luis, drifting SW just like Katrina! Does this look like a real possibility to you?

completely different systema nd dynmaics at work here. I highly doubt it gets toa 1 but a TD or a weak TS is certainly possible

[cycloneye]

05/1145 UTC 25.3N 78.7W T1.0/1.0 94 -- Atlantic Ocean

[cycloneye]

CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 25.5 78.6 245./ 1.9
6 25.2 79.2 242./ 6.5
12 26.0 79.6 330./ 8.5
18 26.0 80.1 267./ 3.8
24 26.1 80.5 292./ 4.2
30 26.8 80.8 337./ 7.2
36 27.3 81.5 304./ 7.9
42 27.5 82.2 288./ 6.7
48 27.2 83.0 252./ 8.0
54 27.4 83.3 297./ 2.8
60 27.7 83.6 313./ 4.1
66 27.7 83.9 286./ 2.2
72 27.7 84.4 267./ 4.9
78 27.8 84.8 290./ 3.7
84 27.9 85.3 279./ 4.5
90 27.9 86.1 270./ 6.4
96 28.0 86.9 274./ 7.9
102 28.3 87.8 290./ 8.3
108 28.6 88.5 290./ 6.7
114 28.9 89.3 293./ 7.9
120 29.4 90.2 300./ 9.2
126 30.2 90.9 321./10.0



I can't believe what I am seeing from the 6z GFDL.Going to south coast of Louisiana.

[linkerweather]

Same track as the 00z just now the 06z has it as a moderate TS and not a major cane.

[WindRunner]

Not much development from these guys. DSHPS peaks at 31kts at 96hrs.

WHXX01 KWBC 051244
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20050905 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050905 1200 050906 0000 050906 1200 050907 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.6N 78.7W 26.7N 79.4W 28.0N 80.2W 29.2N 81.0W
BAMM 25.6N 78.7W 26.3N 79.4W 27.2N 80.3W 28.0N 81.1W
A98E 25.6N 78.7W 25.9N 78.6W 26.7N 79.6W 27.5N 80.8W
LBAR 25.6N 78.7W 26.3N 79.0W 27.4N 79.2W 28.6N 79.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050907 1200 050908 1200 050909 1200 050910 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.1N 81.2W 30.8N 81.4W 31.6N 82.1W 33.0N 81.8W
BAMM 28.7N 81.8W 29.2N 82.6W 29.6N 84.0W 30.7N 85.7W
A98E 27.7N 81.9W 27.0N 83.4W 26.2N 85.0W 25.9N 86.5W
LBAR 29.6N 79.3W 30.4N 77.4W 32.6N 75.7W 35.0N 70.5W
SHIP 45KTS 54KTS 56KTS 58KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 31KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.6N LONCUR = 78.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 25.6N LONM12 = 78.5W DIRM12 = 255DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 25.9N LONM24 = 78.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[Scott_inVA]

FREEBIE MAP as of 9AM EDT Mon:





Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[TampaFl]

[Ivanhater]

FREEBIE MAP as of 9AM EDT Mon:





Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

might as well flip a coin

[Scott_inVA]

might as well flip a coin

That's why models are tools, not decision makers

Scott

[Ivanhater]

might as well flip a coin

That's why models are tools, not decision makers

Scott

well this run is one useless tool, kind of hard to make a decision right now

[Dean4Storms]

I think we are seeing the potential track by the GFDL of a Low that develops fairly quickly and closes off compared to what the other Global models depict if the low was to struggle and not take on Tropical characteristics. It would make sense that a rapidly deepening system would try and round the ridge.

[wxwatcher91]

hmm... well can we at least rule out Cuba?

[Noah]

Chances of this low sitting off east coast causing rain in sarasota?

[vaffie]

I think it's most important to note that the GFS has switched from going up the east coast to going Northwest over Florida and into the panhandle. This seems more likely with such a strong high to the north. I might be wrong, but I think I remember from last year that the BAM models are based on the AVN, so they will probably dutifully move west too. Also, as you all know, the GFDL is a really good model, but nevertheless, it has a big margin of error. It does, though, get the trends right often from the beginning. So, I think that based on this we can guess that the models are saying that this storm is going to go west and enter the Gulf--that is about 70% likely. Then what it does is another question. I would not jump on one model right now and say, look, the GFDL says it's going to hit New Orleans--these models are not designed for that accuracy so many days out--they give general directions. Considering that my experience has been that the AVN often underpredicts the strength of High pressures and almost always turns them north far too soon. Take Katrina for instance, it predicted the panhandle of Florida, but the high was so much stronger that it moved southwest for so long and then kept pushing the forecast models further and further west, until the cold front came along. Whenever there's a cold front, AVN does well, but until there is one, it always misses it to the east. Also, considering it's almost stationary, no model really is sure what it will do. In summary, even though all the models say eastern Gulf, I would be more concerned for Central and western Gulf right now. We may see the models continue to move their targets westward. Considering I live three miles from the Astrodome, and have been in there, I pray that it does not come here, and if it does, that it is not strong, but if it has to traverse all that water (and especially if it enters the dangerously warm western Gulf), this may all be really bad news...
-vaffie

[weatherwindow]

Luis, drifting SW just like Katrina! Does this look like a real possibility to you?

that SW movement bothers me too!......i am not in anyway suggesting a repetition of katrina's intensity. just a casual look at the latest models that i have access to....as noted the gfdl, in addition to the gfs and the cmc move a system across fla and into the GOM...nogaps, ukmet north along the fla east coast. let's just hope that the gfdl does have a better grasp of the ridging than the rest of the models....that said, on average, the longer a sw motion continues the further west the recurvature will occur....its certainly worth watching.......rich

[Dean4Storms]

I'm starting to buy into the GFS and generally the GFDL solution of closing this off today and bringing it across the peninsula into the GOM, albeit slowly.

Looks like we could have a TD by the end of today looking at the trend of the past 24hrs and radar out of Miami..........

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

[WindRunner]

I think it's most important to note that the GFS has switched from going up the east coast to going Northwest over Florida and into the panhandle.

Yeah, but did you see it's short-term track? Zig-zagging up the peninsula? I'm not really following that line of thinking very well.

[Ivanhater]

I'm starting to buy into the GFS and generally the GFDL solution of closing this off today and bringing it across the peninsula into the GOM, albeit slowly.

Looks like we could have a TD by the end of today looking at the trend of the past 24hrs and radar out of Miami..........

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

i dont want to buy something that comes to our area, lol

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well, those tracks appear a little too close for comfort,
but hopefully this thing will stay weak.

[vaffie]

I'm starting to buy into the GFS and generally the GFDL solution of closing this off today and bringing it across the peninsula into the GOM, albeit slowly.

Looks like we could have a TD by the end of today looking at the trend of the past 24hrs and radar out of Miami..........

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

i dont want to buy something that comes to our area, lol

I agree with you, but as far as I'm concerned, I think it already has closed off, if you look at the Quikscat map at
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_3.html,
you will see a definitive strong west to east wind south of the storm. It has a good circulation all around it right now. It is closed off. Also, for four hours last night, Homestead had a western component in it's winds. It is all a bad sign...
-vaffie[/img]