Geez...The 0Z GFDL

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:12 am

Does this model have no mercy?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Looks like this is an outlier...the smart $ is on a slow creep up the EC as a weak tropical storm at best.

Man I hope we can get to December without another landfall.

MW

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:13 am

Something tells me that the big guy up stairs is a little mad? :eek:

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:15 am

The GFDL did take Katrina to 125 kt in the GOM...and the southern track we did not expect...

For everyones sake..lets hope were dealing with TS Jerry 1995

sma10 · #4 Postby **sma10** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:28 am

I'd love to have seen the forecasters' reaction at the NHC when the GFDL spit this out.

Thunder44 · #5 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:05 am

The track may be right, but it's overdoing intensity again. No way this can get to a Cat 3 into the New Orleans area on that kind of track.

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:09 am

Thunder44 wrote:The track may be right, but it's overdoing intensity again. No way this can get to a Cat 3 into the New Orleans area on that kind of track.

Actually...if the upper level pattern is right, it can deepen that fast.

PTrackerLA · #7 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:17 am

Someone is very angry :eek:

. I'm hoping this was just a fluke model run.

weatherwindow · #8 Postby **weatherwindow** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:36 am

the GFDL has some inherent feedback problems with respect to intensity....lets looks at SHIPS today and see how it handles the intensity. that said, the track isnt impossible. the last global runs that i saw(12x). showed a slow north/northwest drift over the next 72 hours....then a stall near the north central fla coast or inland. apparently, the GFDL see a more persistent and more east-west oriented ridge moving the system into the GOM. i second your motion: this is likely an outlier.....MW have you seen any of the other 00z globals?...................rich...ps: NOLA doesnt need even a summer shower at this point :eek:

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:39 am

The GFDL is always bashed on intensity....although sometimes it's way off....it has an impressive past in my book:::

FORECASTING A CAT 4 CHARLEY BY FLORIDA
FORECASTING A CAT 5 IVAN SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
FORECASTING A SOUTHERN MOVEMENT AND A RAPID INCREASE IN GULF DURING HURRICANE KATRINA

Hopefully...it is not correct. Let's wait and see. Quite frankly...Im ready for Christmas.

#10 Postby **stormcloud** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:42 am

I would like to see more model consensus and a few more runs before jumping on the GFDL's bandwagon.

#11 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:49 am

stormcloud wrote:I would like to see more model consensus and a few more runs before jumping on the GFDL's bandwagon.

yep, in fact lets develop the system a bit before we all get excited about model runs

#12 Postby **ericinmia** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:59 am

The 00z candian also shows it....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... z/f120.gif

So does the 00z Euro but slower...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... z/f168.gif

Who knows... but if even a TS hits there... There are going to be a lot more problems, and some serious questions and doubts.
-Eric

Thunder44 · #13 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:14 am

~Floydbuster wrote:The GFDL is always bashed on intensity....although sometimes it's way off....it has an impressive past in my book:::

FORECASTING A CAT 4 CHARLEY BY FLORIDA
FORECASTING A CAT 5 IVAN SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
FORECASTING A SOUTHERN MOVEMENT AND A RAPID INCREASE IN GULF DURING HURRICANE KATRINA

Hopefully...it is not correct. Let's wait and see. Quite frankly...Im ready for Christmas.

It really intensifies many more system incorrectly than not. Sometimes it even disappates systems too much. To me it's just matter of doing it so much, that has to get it right once in a while Remember this system hasn't even formed yet, which make it less reliable. It was making a 92L a Cat 5 hurricane before the Lesser Antillies the other day.

johngaltfla · #14 Postby **johngaltfla** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 6:35 am

Thunder44 wrote:The track may be right, but it's overdoing intensity again. No way this can get to a Cat 3 into the New Orleans area on that kind of track.

Sure it can. Our water temps haven't been stirred up by storms and the temps are in the 90's throughout Western Florida. The upwelling didn't bring the SSTs below 82 degrees, so why not?

God help those people and this nation if this bears out in 7 days. :eek:

Thunder44 · #15 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:02 am

johngaltfla wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:The track may be right, but it's overdoing intensity again. No way this can get to a Cat 3 into the New Orleans area on that kind of track.

Sure it can. Our water temps haven't been stirred up by storms and the temps are in the 90's throughout Western Florida. The upwelling didn't bring the SSTs below 82 degrees, so why not?

God help those people and this nation if this bears out in 7 days.

It's much weaker and it too close to the coast to develop that much. I wouldn't be suprised to see a Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 hurricane though.

wxwatcher91 · #16 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:21 am

Thunder44 wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:The GFDL is always bashed on intensity....although sometimes it's way off....it has an impressive past in my book:::

FORECASTING A CAT 4 CHARLEY BY FLORIDA
FORECASTING A CAT 5 IVAN SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
FORECASTING A SOUTHERN MOVEMENT AND A RAPID INCREASE IN GULF DURING HURRICANE KATRINA

Hopefully...it is not correct. Let's wait and see. Quite frankly...Im ready for Christmas.

It really intensifies many more system incorrectly than not. Sometimes it even disappates systems too much. To me it's just matter of doing it so much, that has to get it right once in a while Remember this system hasn't even formed yet, which make it less reliable. It was making a 92L a Cat 5 hurricane before the Lesser Antillies the other day.

thank you Thunder44! I have heard just way to often people saying about the GFDL being smart with intensity and bringing up all these wicked cat 4-5 canes. If someone can find an instance where the GFDL accurately predicted a storm WEAKENING, I will give the model a little more thought...

Duffy · #17 Postby **Duffy** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:26 am

remember folks this is 7 days out....i doubt it will keep this track all the way through. these things often change alot
remember originally Katrina was supposed to go into the Florida Panhandle and look what happened?

canegrl04 · #18 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:29 am

If this comes to pass,its rubbing salt in our wounds

#19 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:33 am

ericinmia wrote:The 00z candian also shows it....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... z/f120.gif

So does the 00z Euro but slower...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... z/f168.gif

Who knows... but if even a TS hits there... There are going to be a lot more problems, and some serious questions and doubts.
-Eric

They show it, but they move it north along the FL Peninsula not to New Orleans.

wxwatcher91 · #20 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:35 am

well if a hurricane doesnt form quickly near the Bahamas and strike New England within the next 24 hours then the GFDL was nuts this run: (everyone should remember this one :wink:

)

Geez...The 0Z GFDL

Geez...The 0Z GFDL

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