Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pic,Models Thread

[Ivanhater]

this is going to make already fed up people even more fed up

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Well here's some possible good news for GOM folks.
Because it is moving so slowly, if it goes to GOM, it will have to \
cross the FL peninsula, and if it crosses slowly, it could very well be torn to shreds prior to reemergence.
It is forecasted to be stationary or move slowly, so its being torn up is
a good possibility IMO.

[Scott_inVA]

I have 94L on at Mid-Atlantic WX.com now but will post a FREEBIE link here when I ingest additional Globals b/c everyone seems very jumpy right now...perhaps with good reason.

The trend is a "sit and spin" just off Florida as 94 is weak with little steering for the moment. At this time...there is some but not substantial modeling depicting a track into the GOM. NOGAPS and UKMET have been on this...NOGAPS trends general solution up SEUS coast...UKie dawdles off FLA and gets absorbed.

I would not discount all or a piece going west eventually under a building Ridge (re: into GOM)...but that IS NOT the trend at this time.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[edited add-on: MO 0Z BAMS, BAMM shifting more west...BAMD is up FL then WNW inland]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The models updated:

[ameriwx2003]

yeah the ships is very aggressive with this system. whats the difference between the SHIPS and DSHIPS?

<RICKY>

DSHIPS Intensity forecasts accounts for a Tropical System interacting with land while SHIPS does not:):):)

[truballer#1]

anything could happen by looking at the models!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

4 have it moving onto the peninsula; some of those four then turn it north,
some keep it west. 1 model takes it out to sea.

Looks like a very wet week for Florida. Flooding concerns.

[Scott_inVA]

The models updated:

Don't know the issue...but that is NOT a valid depiction of the UKMET

Scott

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yea with invalid UKMET the models are not too trustworthy now that I think
about it...

Do you think it will stall or will it come onto land?

[truballer#1]

I think it will be a weak topical storm before landfall because its so slow.

[Scott_inVA]

Yea with invalid UKMET the models are not too trustworthy now that I think
about it...

Do you think it will stall or will it come onto land?

Other models unrelated to UKMET. Broad area of LP can stall just along or off shore...essentially same result: some wind, off shore gales, +RA and so on. Most models...and sensible weather...show this pulling up generally NNW, N or NNE. Alot depends on how long it sits and how organized it becomes. Then factor in trof and HP building so there are ample options the models will depict. Important to watch what's over CONUS..

Scott

[fci]

yeah the ships is very aggressive with this system. whats the difference between the SHIPS and DSHIPS?

<RICKY>

When is the SHIPS NOT aggressive????

[Ivanhater]

Yea with invalid UKMET the models are not too trustworthy now that I think
about it...

Do you think it will stall or will it come onto land?

Other models unrelated to UKMET. Broad area of LP can stall just along or off shore...essentially same result: some wind, off shore gales, +RA and so on. Most models...and sensible weather...show this pulling up generally NNW, N or NNE. Alot depends on how long it sits and how organized it becomes. Then factor in trof and HP building so there are ample options the models will depict. Important to watch what's over CONUS..

Scott

i wonder what accuweather is seeing, they are showing an east to west flow in all the layers

[wxmann_91]

yeah the ships is very aggressive with this system. whats the difference between the SHIPS and DSHIPS?

<RICKY>

When is the SHIPS NOT aggressive????

Almost never.

Good point.

BTW DSHPS is for Decay-SHIP (or something like that), where it takes into account land interaction and such. SHIPS usually doesn't weaken storms that much when it's going to interact with land. If experts can correct me then please do it.

[truballer#1]

yeah the ships is very aggressive with this system. whats the difference between the SHIPS and DSHIPS?

<RICKY>

When is the SHIPS NOT aggressive????

Almost never.

Good point.

sometimes the ships has canes streinthing a lot over land

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 050114
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
914 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS (PW`S ~1.2" AT KTLH AND ~1.5" AT
KTBW) KEPT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
AGAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN MOST PENINSULA WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE
AXIS (PW`S 1.8 TO 2") AND FRONTAL TROUGH RESIDES. 88D RETURNS EARLY
THIS EVENING SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING WEST IN DEEP LAYERED NELY
WIND FLOW...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY FAR
SOUTH) WERE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS/SRN PENINSULA WILL KEEP A MODERATE
NELY WIND FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE FA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS THE REST
OF TONIGHT. THIS FLOW WILL HELP TO SLOWLY MOISTEN THE AIR MASS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER SRN MOST ZONES. AS MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES SHOWER ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE THE EAST COAST LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT
ADVECTS WEST INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ADJUST WEATHER/POP GRIDS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED (POPS ~20%) SHOWERS NORTH INTO CENTRAL ZONES AND
LOW END SCATTERED RANGE POPS ~30% FAR SOUTH (CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES) WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE/TROUGH EXISTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. OTHER THAN THIS NO OTHER ZONE CHANGES EXPECTED.

INCREASING RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE ON TAP FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND ALL ZONES BY MID WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH IN TANDEM WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PROGD BY
THE GFS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE FL EAST
COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING (TRACK AND
INTENSITY) OF THIS FEATURE...SO LIKE LAST NIGHT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION REMAINS RATHER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE ON TAP FOR PORTIONS OF THE FA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HELPING TO INCREASE WINDS/SEAS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. BASED ON C-MAN AND OFFSHORE
BUOY TRENDS AS WELL AS 00Z RAOB/VAD AND LATEST MODEL DATA WILL BUMP
UP WINDS TO ~15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE 3-4 FOOT RANGE FOR ALL LEGS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON MONDAY GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER WHICH
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO EXERCISE OR LOW END SCA CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

JCM

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the latest model tracks, based from SkeetobiteWeather.com...
http://skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=94

Interesting that the UKMET is not shown... maybe it has not been released or completed/compiled yet.

[SkeetoBite]

... whats the difference between the SHIPS and DSHIPS?

<RICKY>

SHIPS = forecast sustained winds over water
DSHIPS = forecast sustained winds over land

Edit: SHIPS ignores land, DSHIPS accounts for the friction of the land under the storm. DSHIPS follows SHIPS until the track encounters land.

[SkeetoBite]

Here is the latest model tracks, based from SkeetobiteWeather.com...
http://skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=94

Interesting that the UKMET is not shown... maybe it has not been released or completed/compiled yet.

We're still working to perfect our system. The UKMET has been released. Unfortunately the UKMET doesn't include any of the NHC identifiers until a storm is "Named" so we are working on a solution to include them in our automated system as they are released. We should have this fixed ASAP.

[CFL]

Ivanhater, we may be okay here. This is from our local NWS office discussion:

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY)
UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE
SHUNTED NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY
SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP AREA UNDER A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE HELD AT 30% OR LESS THRU THIS PERIOD.