Invest 95S in S Indian Ocean

[Coredesat]

B. Tropical disturbance summary:
(1) a low level circulation center (LLCC) has persisted near 4.8s
83.6e, approximately 780 nm east-northeast of Diego Garcia. Multi-
spectral satellite imagery depicts a well developed LLCC with flaring
convection on the southern periphery over last 12 hours. Upper level
analysis indicates the disturbance is in a moderate to high vertical
wind shear environment with increasing values of 850 mb vorticity.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. The Pot-
ential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within
the next 24 hours is poor.

04/2100 UTC 3.1S 88.2E T1.5/1.5 95S

[cjrciadt]

Even activity in the Indian Ocean, only the S. Atlantic lacks activity now.

[Coredesat]

For a couple days I thought this was old data because it's hard to see anything at all in that image, but the T-numbers don't lie. Something's definitely trying to develop down there.

[cycloneye]

Even activity in the Indian Ocean, only the S. Atlantic lacks activity now.

Dont forget the much less active Central Pacific.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like there season is starting. That would be interesting to get another cyclone for the south atlantic.

[Patrick99]

Even activity in the Indian Ocean, only the S. Atlantic lacks activity now.

Dont forget the much less active Central Pacific.

Doesn't the CPAC only get cranking during big El Nino years? I remember Hurricane Iniki, a couple weeks after Andrew. Other than those strong El Nino years, I guess the water is too cold out there.

[P.K.]

TD in 24 hours going by the forecast map.

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

ZONE PERTURBEE 01-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1003 HPA.
POSITION LE 05 SEPTEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 2.9 SUD / 88.7 EST
(DEUX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 4085 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST A 18 KM/H.

[Coredesat]

05/0830 UTC 4.5S 86.9E T1.5/1.5 95S

[P.K.]

Down to 1001hPa now. Latest forecast now makes this a TD in 12 hours and takes it to TS strength in 36 hours. Kalo is the next name on the list as it appears they follow on from last seasons list.

[HURAKAN]

[Coredesat]

05/1430 UTC 5.5S 84.5E T2.0/2.0 95S

[Coredesat]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for 95S:

WTXS21 PGTW 051430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 051421Z SEP 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.5S 86.4E TO 8.4S 83.2E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS­
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.9S
86.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 4.9S 86.1E, APPROXIMATELY
835 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN
AN AREA OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING 850 MB
VORTICITY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN BOTH
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIRECTIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO TIGHT CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 061430Z.//

Something else to track.

[P.K.]

The latest on this invest. Looking at the forecast track they aren't being as aggressive with development now.

Lundi, 05 septembre 2005, 22h17 (UTC+4)

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 01-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1001 HPA.
POSITION LE 05 SEPTEMBRE A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 5.0 SUD / 86.0 EST
(CINQ DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-SIX DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3710 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 18 KM/H.

[P.K.]

Pressure is up slightly, but the movement is now much faster than before.

Mardi, 06 septembre 2005, 10h22 (UTC+4)

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 01-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1002 HPA.
POSITION LE 06 SEPTEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 7.5 SUD / 85.3 EST
(SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3505 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD A 27 KM/H.

[Coredesat]

07/0230 UTC 8.1S 84.9E T1.5/2.5 95S

Convection has diminished significantly, could become a remnant low sometime tomorrow if it doesn't get its act together.