Invest 93L=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

cinlfla · #81 Postby **cinlfla** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 1:48 pm

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

Can anyone tell me what's wrond with these models what would make them crazy like this...is the high suppose to send it west then a trough pull it north, can anyone shed some light on this for me Thanks

#82 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 2:02 pm

A Ridge

#83 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 2:10 pm

looks like a depression to me how about you?

#84 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 2:11 pm

almost a depression

Nimbus · #85 Postby **Nimbus** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 3:05 pm

When I first spotted the LLC yesterday it was down around 24N 68W now it is up around 26N 67W so it is gaining latitude.

The models are showing 93L being steered southwest by the ridge behind the front in a day or so.

Above 25N storms usually get picked up by a trough and pulled out to sea if they hang around long enough.

nequad · #86 Postby **nequad** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 3:33 pm

The UK...

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 25.4N 79.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 06.09.2005 25.4N 79.4W WEAK

12UTC 06.09.2005 25.6N 79.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.09.2005 26.9N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2005 28.5N 87.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2005 30.0N 74.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 08.09.2005 33.2N 72.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2005 34.7N 68.0W WEAK BECOMING EXTRA TROPICAL

12UTC 09.09.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 27.7N 69.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.09.2005 27.7N 69.1W WEAK

00UTC 06.09.2005 27.6N 70.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2005 28.5N 69.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.09.2005 29.7N 70.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2005 30.7N 71.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2005 MERGES WITH ABOVE STORM

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #87 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 3:39 pm

It appears to have a very well defined LLC. In also the convection/outflow is banding out over the northeast quad. It looks if current trends keep up to be at least a depression for the 11pm.

If it can stay away from Merging with Maria. We should see nate out of it.

#88 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 4:33 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIA... LOCATED ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA IS
DRIFTING NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER... CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECASTER KNABB

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #89 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 4:40 pm

This system looks alot more developed in that system near Florida.

Nimbus · #90 Postby **Nimbus** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 4:58 pm

Not being picky but whats with the 8 that should be a 7 in the model data?

#91 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 6:09 pm

#92 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 6:09 pm

woops

tropicsgal05 · #93 Postby **tropicsgal05** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 6:22 pm

Is this going up the east coast or going across into the GOM?

Nimbus · #94 Postby **Nimbus** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 6:26 pm

8 letter words that begin with F?

#95 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 6:27 pm

Franklin

cinlfla · #96 Postby **cinlfla** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 6:28 pm

I'm confused are the model plots above for 93l or 94l. they seem to be to close to land to be 93l.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #97 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 7:02 pm

System slowly becoming better organized. Convection is developing over the LLC. In the outflow is improving. Quastion is can it stay far enough away from Maria.

#98 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 7:17 pm

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED
NEAR 27N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 64W-68W. THIS LOW IS MOVING N AND WILL
ALSO BE MONITORED.

From the 8 PM Discussion.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #99 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 7:23 pm

Closing in.

04/2345 UTC 27.3N 66.6W T1.5/1.5 93

#100 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:07 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050905 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050905 0000 050905 1200 050906 0000 050906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.2N 66.4W 28.1N 66.4W 28.8N 66.5W 29.1N 66.9W
BAMM 27.2N 66.4W 28.4N 66.3W 29.1N 66.1W 29.3N 66.4W
A98E 27.2N 66.4W 28.1N 66.2W 28.9N 66.0W 29.4N 65.4W
LBAR 27.2N 66.4W 28.4N 66.3W 29.5N 66.0W 30.4N 65.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050907 0000 050908 0000 050909 0000 050910 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.2N 67.4W 29.6N 68.6W 31.5N 68.1W 33.6N 62.6W
BAMM 29.1N 66.7W 28.8N 68.5W 30.4N 69.6W 33.0N 68.2W
A98E 29.5N 65.2W 30.0N 64.5W 31.1N 63.0W 33.1N 58.0W
LBAR 31.0N 65.8W 32.0N 66.2W 34.6N 65.6W 37.7N 59.9W
SHIP 49KTS 61KTS 66KTS 63KTS
DSHP 49KTS 61KTS 66KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.2N LONCUR = 66.4W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 26.3N LONM12 = 66.6W DIRM12 = 11DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 25.4N LONM24 = 66.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00z Model Guidance.

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