Invest 93L=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[deltadog03]

well, IMO anything that develops out there should slowly drift W into the gulf of mexico...I hope not!!! but, the ridge should build in nicely AGAIN...and this also teleconnects with a ridge just east of japan, and one in europe...so, we will see

[Hurricaneman]

Do we in Massachusetts have to keep a close eye on this one

[spinfan4eva]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Models seem confused and at this hour, I feel that any system that forms will go out to sea cause the best looking area (Organized?) is east of the Bahamas and East of 70W. If this winds up being the parent system, 2 models send it to sea. The GFS, Canadian models seem to form 2 lows with one forming east of the bahamas and headed northeast while a weaker low develops near Fla and heads west.

Meanwhile the UKMET and NOGAPS seems to begin a low east of the bahamas which seems to tranfer energy to a New low closer to Florida which both strengthen and head up the coast of Fla.

Overall, This bears watching IMHO! Looks messy!

[DAVE440]

Local radar shows scattered showers and t-storms just east of Fl approaching the coast.

I did notice better organization in that bahamas mess around 25n 65w
and so did NHC. Could develop slowly in next few days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

W ATLANTIC...
COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES OVER THE W ATLC. TWO SURFACE LOWS ARE
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.. ONE 1011 MB LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND
ANOTHER ONE E OF THE BAHAMAS... 1008 MB.. NEAR 25.5N68W
CONNECTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES WESTWARD TO S
FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
23.5N-25.5N BETWEEN 66W-70W NEAR THE LOW AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 32N63W TO 23N70W HELPING TO
PRODUCE THE TSTMS. AN UPPER HIGH HAS MOVED IN FROM THE UNITED
STATES NOW NEAR 29N76W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT SLOW
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE REGION... THOUGH THEY DO NOT AGREE ON EXACTLY
WHERE IT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

[cycloneye]

W ATLANTIC...
AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR BERMUDA FADES AWAY... A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
26N67W APPEARS TO BE TAKING OVER E OF THE BAHAMAS . THIS IS NOT
CONCLUSIVE WITH DRIFTING BUOYS SUGGESTING THAT THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HASN'T REACHED THE SURFACE OR IS MORE SHEARED THAN
NIGHT VIS IMAGES SHOW. MIAMI RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING BROAD
TURNING IN THE NW BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
FROM THE LOW E OF THE BAHAMAS INTO S FLORIDA WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 75W-80W. AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS JUST W OF THE LOW FROM 31N64W TO 25N70W ASSISTING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME AND
COUPLED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
28N75W... COULD ALLOW SLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
COMPUTER MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY THOUGH THEY DO
NOT AGREE ON EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH.

8 AM Discussion.

[Thunder44]

Close-up visible images this morning show a LLC perhaps partly exposed on the northern edge of the convection firing up this morning.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[spinfan4eva]

I expect to see Invest 94L in the area closer to Florida as well from the other part of the disturbance noted in the TWO. Didnt we for a while see 2 invests with the beginnings of another storm?

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.

[cycloneye]

04/1145 UTC 26.2N 66.7W T1.0/1.0 93 -- Atlantic Ocean


Things are getting interesting with this system as SSD dvorak rapidly gives it 25 kts or 1.0 T Number.

[dixiebreeze]

04/1145 UTC 26.2N 66.7W T1.0/1.0 93 -- Atlantic Ocean


Things are getting interesting with this system as SSD dvorak rapidly gives it 25 kts or 1.0 T Number.

This must be terribly alarming to folks around the GOM. When will models be out?

[cycloneye]

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 25.7 67.2 360./ 2.9
6 26.3 66.7 37./ 7.7
12 26.9 65.6 59./11.6
18 27.6 64.9 47./ 9.5
24 28.8 64.4 24./12.9
30 29.9 64.4 358./10.2
36 30.4 64.3 7./ 5.2
42 30.3 64.6 247./ 2.3
48 30.3 64.5 96./ .8
54 30.5 64.4 13./ 2.1
60 30.7 64.6 328./ 2.5
66 30.7 64.8 267./ 1.5
72 30.9 64.8 342./ 2.3
78 31.2 65.1 320./ 3.8
84 31.6 65.2 342./ 3.7
90 32.1 65.3 352./ 5.1
96 33.0 65.2 8./ 8.7
102 34.0 65.1 2./10.4
108 35.0 64.2 42./12.2
114 35.9 62.9 53./14.4
120 37.2 61.0 56./19.7
126 37.8 58.9 75./17.9


GFDL goes away from the East Coast passing near Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050904 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050904 1200 050905 0000 050905 1200 050906 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.3N 66.7W 27.1N 66.8W 28.1N 66.9W 29.0N 67.1W
BAMM 26.3N 66.7W 27.4N 66.8W 28.5N 67.0W 29.3N 67.1W
A98E 26.3N 66.7W 27.3N 66.8W 28.3N 66.6W 29.2N 65.7W
LBAR 26.3N 66.7W 27.5N 66.5W 28.9N 66.3W 30.2N 66.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050906 1200 050907 1200 050908 1200 050909 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.4N 67.6W 29.8N 69.0W 31.4N 70.5W 33.8N 68.6W
BAMM 29.6N 67.6W 29.5N 69.3W 30.2N 71.3W 31.7N 71.7W
A98E 29.6N 65.4W 29.8N 65.0W 30.5N 64.5W 32.4N 63.1W
LBAR 31.1N 65.9W 32.4N 65.9W 33.9N 65.8W 36.7N 63.2W
SHIP 56KTS 67KTS 71KTS 71KTS
DSHP 56KTS 67KTS 71KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.3N LONCUR = 66.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 25.4N LONM12 = 66.6W DIRM12 = 36DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 25.0N LONM24 = 68.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00z Model guidance

All go away from East Coast.

[cycloneye]

Graphic of 12:00z models.[/b]

[Thunder44]

The BAMM still somewhat takes toward the east coast at the end there. Don mentioned the low possibility that a ridge could build to the north of it, forcing to come closer to the coast. I think Bermuda needs to watch this one the most though.

[HURAKAN]

When is RECON going?

[Thunder44]

When is RECON going?

688
NOUS42 KNHC 041500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 04 SEPTEMBER 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEP 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-099

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 INVEST MISSION
NEAR 30N 66W AT 06/1800Z.

They may send a NOAA plane on Tuesday.

[HURAKAN]

NATE, ARE YOU THERE?!?!?!?!

[Nimbus]

Well that is good news this area has been almost stationary for 24 hrs.

Only bad news is it does not look like it will stick around long enough to pull whatever develops out of ex 92L north with it.

[truballer#1]

http://flaweather.com/images/maria.JPG

[Thunder44]

465
ABNT20 KNHC 041504
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED AROUND
THE CENTER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[WeatherEmperor]

I expect to see Invest 94L in the area closer to Florida as well from the other part of the disturbance noted in the TWO. Didnt we for a while see 2 invests with the beginnings of another storm?

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.

are you sure that a 94L invest will come up from the area just off the FL east coast? Im not saying it wont happen but if you look carefully, it appears to be moving at a good enough pace to be making landfall in FL before it will have a chance to develop. Now 93L will have a good chance cause its still over the open waters.

<RICKY>