Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Hyperstorm]

Very interesting what's going on this morning.

The feature of 92L is still very disorganized, but has been first labeled as a tropical wave by TAFB. They sure had lots of trouble classifying this entity since it left off the coast. I am beginning to wonder if they are doing that just to give it continuity.

However, to give it the benefit of the doubt, I will say that sometimes waves form further west than right over Africa, so this one could be one of those. If it's a real tropical wave, it should persist as such in the southern Tropical Atlantic. I don't expect any development before it reaches the Lesser Antilles due to its disorganized nature.

It should travel near the South America/extreme southern Caribbean latitude line during the next few days...

[Nimbus]

With all the action going on at the end of that front over the Bahamas I doubt this area will get much notice for a while.

With any luck it will roll into South America unnamed.

[Hyperstorm]

Just noticed that it is no longer being labeled as Invest 92L...

[rainstorm]

thank god the atlantic shear zone is zapping everything, and they can only develop if they make it far enough north, like maria. if only katrina hadnt gotten through

[truballer#1]

looks like invest 92l is moved up north and should develope as antisipated. Slower than expected since it is below 10N. I still think it could be a major hurricane sometime.

[Thunder44]

It's back. Model runs on it this morning again.

691
WHXX01 KWBC 040720
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050904 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050904 0600 050904 1800 050905 0600 050905 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.5N 47.0W 10.7N 49.6W 10.9N 52.2W 11.2N 54.8W
BAMM 10.5N 47.0W 10.9N 50.0W 11.4N 53.1W 12.2N 56.0W
A98E 10.5N 47.0W 10.5N 49.8W 10.6N 52.8W 10.6N 55.7W
LBAR 10.5N 47.0W 10.7N 50.0W 11.3N 53.3W 11.8N 56.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050906 0600 050907 0600 050908 0600 050909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 57.4W 11.9N 62.0W 12.2N 65.9W 12.9N 69.1W
BAMM 12.9N 58.8W 14.3N 63.3W 15.4N 67.5W 16.6N 71.6W
A98E 10.6N 58.4W 10.9N 63.2W 11.3N 67.6W 11.7N 71.9W
LBAR 12.4N 60.2W 14.1N 66.4W 16.2N 70.9W 16.9N 72.7W
SHIP 49KTS 58KTS 62KTS 67KTS
DSHP 49KTS 58KTS 62KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 47.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 44.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 40.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[Nimbus]

South of Hispaniola moving WNW by Friday.

[cycloneye]

I never gave up on 92 because the most recent storm that affected Puerto Rico was Jeanne last year and formed around 60w.It was a wimpy wave but turned more organized near the islands with warmer waters west of 50w.The most it may bring is scattered showers by mid-week but let's watch it as it gets closer to the islands.

[KatDaddy]

Conditions down the road become more favorable for development. Could be another GOM threat by next weekend but hopefully not.

[Hyperstorm]

92L has come back in NRL, but the system hasn't come back per se...

This morning, an area of disorganized showers have developed associated with the tropical wave over the central Atlantic. While the system is being labeled overall as 92L, the actual area to watch is associated with the wave itself and not associated with the ITCZ disturbance we were looking at over the past few days. The wave is located further north away from the ITCZ stretching from 11N to 16N:



The system will likely struggle during the next 24-36 hours due to the outflow of Maria. Once the system moves past 50W and particularly 55W, the system will begin to enter an environment of light winds. In other words, conditions should become favorable for develolpment. It will all depend on the system if it uses this favorable environment to its benefit or continues harmlessly to the west. It appears that the system further north (wave axis) is very well defined, so if convection develops intensely, it could develop a LLC fairly quickly.

I'll be watching, although I don't think it has too much of a chance of developing significantly before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, but it could very well be in the process...

[spinfan4eva]

Here it is for those of us who need pictures

[Windsong]

Hyperstorm, a question for you.

My brain is saturated with all that's been happening, so I need some help trying to make sense of the tropics right now. Which of these have the potential to affect land and/or the gulf as of right now? As of down the road?

Thanks for your help. Tropical soup confuses me.
Windsong

[Hyperstorm]

Hyperstorm, a question for you.

My brain is saturated with all that's been happening, so I need some help trying to make sense of the tropics right now. Which of these have the potential to affect land and/or the gulf as of right now? As of down the road?

Thanks for your help. Tropical soup confuses me.
Windsong

Windsong...

I'm not sure if I understand your question correctly. However, I assume you're talking about the different disturbances going on in the Atlantic.

Right now, the area most likely to enter the Gulf of Mexico in later periods (only if it develops), is the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles. It is still to early to speculate on that, but climatology suggests that should be the future track entering from the Caribbean.

Also, the disturbance in the NW Bahamas has potential to enter the Gulf of Mexico. This is a MUCH lower potential, however. The majority of the models show a weakening of its ridge to the north as it grazes the East Coast of the United States.

[Thunder44]

I think the outflow from Maria has been hampering the development of this system for the last few days.

[Windsong]

LOL! Yes, that's what I meant. Told you I was confused.

Thank you for your prompt answer. Have a good day dear!

[Hyperstorm]

I think the outflow from Maria has been hampering the development of this system for the last few days.

Actually, Maria had been suffering from southwesterly wind shear up until yesterday. This outflow from Maria is just a recent inhibitor to the system.

LOL! Yes, that's what I meant. Told you I was confused.

Thank you for your prompt answer. Have a good day dear!

You're welcome, Windsong. You have a great day as well...

[truballer#1]

http://flaweather.com/images/maria.JPG

[truballer#1]

http://flaweather.com/images/maria.JPG

[truballer#1]

http://flaweather.com/images/maria.JPG

[Nimbus]

I know this is only a wishcast but maybe if 93L hangs around the bahamas for a while it will leave a weakness to pull 92L north?

Ophelia chasing nate?

well I can wishcast.