Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pic,Models Thread

[rockyman]

Since the area NE of the Turks and Caicos has taken over the previous thread, I think we need a new thread for the area over the western Bahamas...I think this is the area to watch for development that could affect the CONUS (the models for 93L are showing that system going out to sea). The 530AM TWO mentioned a surface trough in the Bahamas, and early visible loops clearly show cyclonic turning at the lower levels. Plus, upper level winds are becoming more favorable.

[spinfan4eva]

Invest 94L, here we come!!

[dixiebreeze]

New site specific thread is a good idea.

[Windsong]

Thank you. This will help all the confusion (on my part) because the other threads are infused with info on the other areas and pretty soon I don't know what the heck I am reading anymore.

Great idea especially since it's so darn close to land.

[x-y-no]

Yes, I think this may be the real area of concern say four days down the line. At least four of the globals (I haven't looked at them all) hint at something in this area in that timeframe.

The UKMET and the NOGAPS develop a system in the Bahamas and take it north then northeast, perhaps brushing the Carolinas. The NOGAPS in particular has been insisting on this idea for multiple runs.

The GFS has something in the SFL area, but never does much with it, just keeps an area of disturbed weather hanging around.

Potentially most disturbing, the European develops a low in the central Bahamas and takes it into the Gulf, where it is still a weak low at 7 days, but in a quite favorable upper-air environment. Obviously, even a TS in the central Gulf coast would be really bad at this point, so I'm hoping the other models have the better grasp on this.

[cinlfla]

Potentially most disturbing, the European develops a low in the central Bahamas and takes it into the Gulf, where it is still a weak low at 7 days, but in a quite favorable upper-air environment. Obviously, even a TS in the central Gulf coast would be really bad at this point, so I'm hoping the other models have the better grasp on this.

This would not be good at all!!!!

[deltadog03]

yeah, the euro does of have a weak low in the southern/central gulf....conditions look to be favorable too...we will have to really watch this...

[Noah]

can someone send me a link to what area we are looking at? And will this effect SW florida?

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like we have a twist in the thunderstorms north of Grand Bahama.

Here is the radar link...


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

[MiamiensisWx]

can someone send me a link to what area we are looking at? And will this effect SW florida?

Here is the area we are monitoring. See the cluster of showers and storms (convection) around southeast Florida and over into the Bahamas? That is the area. Here it is on infra-red:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Here it is on visible:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg

See it now?

About it affecting southwest Florida... it could bring some rain and storms to the area (heavier rainfall if it moves over southern Florida) but, at the moment, I don't expect significant development. Still needs to be watched, though.

[mascpa]

Incredible amount of rain early this morning. Most of the swales are overflowing and lots and lots of standiing water if people's yards. And the lightning, just spectacular. More supposed to be on the way

[MiamiensisWx]

Incredible amount of rain early this morning. Most of the swales are overflowing and lots and lots of standiing water if people's yards. And the lightning, just spectacular. More supposed to be on the way

Here in eastern Boca Raton we had a huge amount of rain last night and into the morning hours, finally tapering off by around 6AM or so. Lots of lightning and thunder as well. This is from the system just off the southeast coast of Florida and into the Bahamas.

Can you imagine MORE RAINFALL IN SOAKING SOUTH FLORIDA and ANOTHER GULF SYSTEM WHEN PEOPLE ARE JUST STARTING TO RECOVER FROM KATRINA? Gulp...

[WeatherEmperor]

Invest 94L, here we come!!

are you sure about that? i mean that area of disturbed weather seems to be moving fast enough to make landfall in FL before it ever gets a chance to develop into much of anything. Not saying it wont happen, but what about that?

<RICKY>

[aerojad]

Looks like we have a twist in the thunderstorms north of Grand Bahama.

Here is the radar link...


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

I notice that twist as well.

How about surface obs from the area. Anyone?

[SouthFloridawx]

West Palm Beach, Palm Beach International Airport
Last Update on Sep 4, 12:53 pm EDT

Light Rain Fog/Mist

75°F
(24°C)
Humidity: 95 %
Wind Speed: NE 6 MPH
Barometer: 29.95" (1014.1 mb)
Dewpoint: 73°F (23°C)
Visibility: 5.00 mi.

[tracyswfla]

I was watching the local noaa weather tv station and noticed that little twist as well.... hmmm. looks like a wet evening?

[AL Chili Pepper]

The Canadian doesn't look so good either.

NWS Mobile/New Orleans discussion:

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...NHC PREFERS TO GO WITH A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE GFS REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAHAMAS...WITH THE SYSTEM MEANDERING OVER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND REMAINING GENERALLY IN THIS POSITION THROUGH FRIDAY. BASED ON THE NHC DISCUSSION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM...THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA IN A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL
POPS IN MAINLY FOR THE DAYTIME PERIODS. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE GREATLY IF THE SOLUTION PRESENTED BY THE CANADIAN GEM PLAYS OUT...WHERE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD EXACERBATE CONDITIONS IN THE HURRICANE RAVAGED AREAS SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. /29

[SouthFloridawx]

hmmmm

[WeatherEmperor]

I dont see anything on that radar except showers/storms. Whats supposed to be there?

<RICKY>

[fci]

Miami forecast discussion notes the possibility in the latest discussion:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
214 PM EDT sun Sep 4 2005


Discussion...big challenge this forecast is potential for
tropical development off the Southeast Florida coast over the next
48 hours. Models can't seem to get a very good handle on it making
late week forecasts even more uncertain. Have made no changes
beyond Tuesday night. In the shorter term...however...have boosted
probability of precipitation somewhat East Coast zones. As low tries to get organized over
the east coastal waters and/or Bahamas...precipitation will
continue redeveloping in the moist unstable air over the warm
ocean waters. The developing circulation will keep spreading the
precipitation across South Florida...especially the East Coast
zones. Daytime highs in those areas will likely struggle to reach
the upper 80s. Have maintained northeast flow across the region
for now.

I can tell you that it has been non-stop rain here today.
Thunderstorms off and on, LOUD booms!!!
Let's see what happens....