Tropical Storm Maria,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[gilbert88]

Based on the excellent presentation on sat pics today and on how rapid this system has increased it's winds I would not be surprised if it becomes not a cat 2 as NHC does at 5 PM but in the 4th major of the season.But thankfully it is at fishland and will mantain as a big fish.

Definitely my favorite kind of hurricanes: big, strong fishes.

[Andrew92]

OK, this time I give a little. Maria can intensify all she wants as far as I'm concerned because she's a fish.

Is that an eye that's starting to appear on satellite?

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

Yes an eye feature is trying to develop now.

[Brent]

GO MARIA... GO MARIA... GO MARIA!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now this is the storm I went to become the cat5!!! Wahoo!!!

[Scorpion]

I think it'll hit 100 knots.

[Anonymous]

I said 20/11/7

We have had... 13/4/3

I think we will have 2 majors in September
Then two in October/November

[truballer#1]

lets see how good the gfdl is on this storm.

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 040015
A. TROPICAL STORM MARIA
B. 03/2331Z (79)
C. 26.3N/1
D. 54.5W/4
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS -03/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC WRAPS .70 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.9 (CLR EYE)

PERSINGER



Air Force T Numbers.

[Andrew92]

It does appear to have at least leveled off somewhat in convection, if not have weakened a little. We'll see what happens. Still think it becomes a hurricane tomorrow though.

-Andrew92

[truballer#1]

143mph cane

[MiamiensisWx]

It does appear to have at least leveled off somewhat in convection, if not have weakened a little. We'll see what happens. Still think it becomes a hurricane tomorrow though.

-Andrew92

Agreed. The chances are very, very much alive for Maria to reach hurricane status. It only takes sone strengthening... we'll see how conditions will continue to play out.

[truballer#1]

This is the kind of canes I like to be cat 5 to 200mph because it wont effect land

[MiamiensisWx]

This is the kind of canes I like to be cat 5 to 200mph because it wont effect land

I think we all have that feeling!

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM MARIA (AL142005) ON 20050904 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050904 0000 050904 1200 050905 0000 050905 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.5N 54.6W 28.4N 55.6W 30.2N 56.5W 31.9N 57.1W
BAMM 26.5N 54.6W 28.5N 55.6W 30.5N 56.4W 32.5N 56.9W
A98E 26.5N 54.6W 28.1N 55.6W 30.2N 56.0W 32.1N 56.4W
LBAR 26.5N 54.6W 28.5N 55.6W 30.5N 56.3W 32.6N 56.8W
SHIP 60KTS 69KTS 77KTS 82KTS
DSHP 60KTS 69KTS 77KTS 82KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050906 0000 050907 0000 050908 0000 050909 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.5N 56.8W 35.6N 51.9W 37.4N 39.3W 35.1N 25.3W
BAMM 34.3N 56.5W 36.6N 52.2W 37.2N 42.9W 35.0N 32.0W
A98E 33.9N 55.7W 37.4N 49.6W 41.9N 33.2W 42.8N 21.0W
LBAR 34.5N 56.9W 38.3N 54.2W 40.4N 46.6W 38.7N 35.8W
SHIP 86KTS 84KTS 75KTS 63KTS
DSHP 86KTS 84KTS 75KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.5N LONCUR = 54.6W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 24.6N LONM12 = 53.2W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 51.0W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM



They can wait to upgrade to hurricane as no land is near and that is what they will do at the 11 PM Advisorie leave it the same 70 mph.

[WeatherEmperor]

out to sea you go Maria. bye bye.

<RICKY>

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is just no sign what so ever that it is a hurricane. It has nothing to do if its near land or a million miles away. Nothing shows it as a hurricane. It also looks to have weaken a little over the last few hours. But the outflow is good/improving. In some what of a Cdo is redeveloping.

I say 50 mph...

[Andrew92]

There is just no sign what so ever that it is a hurricane. It has nothing to do if its near land or a million miles away. Nothing shows it as a hurricane. It also looks to have weaken a little over the last few hours. But the outflow is good/improving. In some what of a Cdo is redeveloping.

I say 50 mph...

No way; it's probably stronger than 50 mph, and will probably become a hurricane tomorrow. I'm not sure why the convection is down, but my guess is maybe a diurnal phase?

-Andrew92

[Dick Pache]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 040238
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT SEP 03 2005

...MARIA STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA...

AT 11 PM AST... 0300Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST OR ABOUT
695 MILES... 1115 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 22 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH... 110 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND MARIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... 185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB... 29.38 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...27.1 N... 54.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Dick Pache]

Dupe of Maria Sticky