Invest 93L=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[artist]

seems to be trying to get its act together according to the current visible!
run a 10 image loop.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[WeatherEmperor]

wow those NASA satellites are totally amazing. kicks the crap out of the NOAA floaters.

<RICKY>

[spinfan4eva]

CBS weather guy Mike Buresh is watching this closely:

http://www.fox30online.com/talkingtropi ... 9ED1D379FE

Talking Tropics with Mike
Last Update: 9/3/2005 4:23:59 PM

2) My biggest concern is the development I've been talking about all week long which is a low pressure area near the Bahamas. The details in this system's development are very difficult to pin down. It does seem obvious, though, that a low pressure area will be developing near the Bahamas east of Florida in the coming days -- especially Labor Day through Wednesday. The system might not have complete tropical characteristics at first but may gradually transition into the "real deal". Such a process is usually gradual. Next question is then strength and movement. Strength -- like usual -- is a huge question mark. But there is some potential for a fairly strong tropical cyclone to eventually evolve. As for movement, well -- this one is really up in the air too...especially since the system hasn't even developed yet. 2 possibilities seem most probable:
(1) Movement west across Florida then into the Gulf of Mexico.
(2) Movement northward or north/northwest with more of an impact on the East Coast.
Either one is very possible and the situation will have to be closely monitored.
Whichever way this low moves or however strong it becomes, it does seem that will be an impact on the First Coast. A strong high pressure system well to the north near New England will only help to make this a windy system for the area. For the First Coast:
(1) High rip current risk
(2) Increasing/building seas and surf -- possibly double digit by Monday or Tuesday.
(3) Increasing winds
(4) Coastal beach erosion/possible flooding
(5) Increasing showers
The above effects will increase daily from Sunday through at least Wednesday -- possibly right on through the end of the week. Of course, how strong each impact will be depends on location and intensity of the low pressure area. Even experienced swimmers/surfers and fisher "people" should be aware of the developing situation and exercise extra caution in the coming days

[jimvb]

What will this system do? I have been following it on the GFS. It seems to generate something off the East Coast except when 92L threatened to come close to the coast (by a few hundred miles). Then the Bahamas system didn't do anything. Now that 92L has fizzled, the Bahamas system is starting to threaten again. I looked at the models:

GFS says it is going to wander around a while off the East Coast, sort of like Diana or Dennis 1999.
Several models, including MM5, NOGAPS, and CMC, show it developing in a few days and looking like it will head to the Carolinas.
UKMET shows this, but then shows it turning out to sea when it is east of Georgia.
GFDL shows the system to develop over land instead, between Atlanta and Roanoke, as an ordinary low or front.

In other words, the models seem to agree that something is going to happen. So I will keep an eye on this. Too bad it is not even a depression yet; if it were, we would have official tracks from the NHC.

[hurricanedude]

Mike Buresh is one fine weather dude, He knows his stuff, so if he is worried, So am I

[Nimbus]

There has been persistant convection near 24n 68w at the bottom of the front.

Earlier today it looked as though that area might sink southwest but tonight it looks like it is cutting off from the front and is almost stationary.

Lots of convection further west along whats left of the front but the shear is stronger and the convection looks less organized.

Should be an invest up soon.

[cinlfla]

Should be an invest up soon.

I just checked out the IR and I agree

[Vortex]

The 12z canadian brings a TD/TS too the south/central FL coast in 72 hours. Definetely up in the air as model agreement is anything but clear cut on this one.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_072.jpg

[MiamiensisWx]

The eastern part of the Bahamas system that has now split off from it now seems to be attempting to get better organized. Looks like a spin may be developing, as well as a possible center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

See the eastern end of the Bahamas system that looks like it is developing a swirl shape? That is the area I'm referring to. Looks more interesting now...

[WeatherEmperor]

The eastern part of the Bahamas system that has now split off from it now seems to be attempting to get better organized. Looks like a spin may be developing, as well as a possible center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

See the eastern end of the Bahamas system that looks like it is developing a swirl shape? That is the area I'm referring to. Looks more interesting now...

it really does appear to be slowly organizing. wont be long before an invest pops up for this one.

<RICKY>

[MiamiensisWx]

it really does appear to be slowly organizing. wont be long before an invest pops up for this one.

<RICKY>

If it persists or continues to slowly organize, I won't be surprised either if it is upgraded and listed as an INVEST.

[jenshops]

If this were to get it's act together and head towards Fla., isn't it likely that it would not be too strong considering how close it is? Is it close enough to Maria that it too would be sucked up toward the north?

[truballer#1]

If this were to get it's act together and head towards Fla., isn't it likely that it would not be too strong considering how close it is? Is it close enough to Maria that it too would be sucked up toward the north?

no, its not really that close t each other

[truballer#1]

actually it is close, just looked at the infared imagry .

[Nimbus]

The early models had different tracks some took it out to sea some took it across Florida.

If a LLC forms on the west side of the front with a high to its west you would expect it to get pulled southwest. If the LLC develops on the east side of what remains of the front it could get pulled out to sea.

The speed of intensification will depend on the shear environment. The shear has been quite strong inhibiting development so far.

[BensonTCwatcher]

which side is this on?

[SouthFloridawx]

[BensonTCwatcher]

Now let's see about that shear...hmmm 10kts? and a pesky anticyclone nearby to inprove outflow?

[truballer#1]

SHEAR ALL AROUND ARE LOW

[WeatherEmperor]

if the shear in that area really is around 10knots, then it has dropped down significantly because it was around 25-30knots just over 24 hours ago.

<RICKY>