Planning, or lack thereof. or not?

[coriolis]

Last night I saw that retired general on fox. (I forget his name).

He was saying that the delay in deploying N.G. units was due to the timing of the Gov of LA placing the request, communications, etc. etc.

He also recommended with hindsight that when they saw the hurricane coming they should have pre-positioned the N.G. in Baton Rouge.

I think that part of the issue (I won't say problem) is the uncertainty before the storm made landfall. What would have happened if thousands of troops, equipment and supplies WERE pre-positioned in Baton Rouge and then the storm took THEM all out? I think that in any emergency response, you have to assess the situation before you can respond to it.

I think that there were lots of Human Factors involved, and most of them are not just negligence. In a lot of cases, people made choices, took a gamble, and lost. That includes gov't and individuals.

For instance:
-funding for emergency prepardness. No one could be against that, but when cities and states have fiscal challenges, the funding goes to immediate needs, not to something that might happen, or will happen sometime in the future. this goes for individuals too. If you're late paying your rent, are unemployed, of if you have a big family to feed, it's difficult to create and maintain emergency supply kit. Heck, it can be difficult to feed the kids on any given day. I, for instance have no emergency prepardness. You should see our refrigerator on the day before payday. It's rough, and I have a good steady job.

-Denial. The thinking that this just can't happen. Again, this applies to individuals as well as officials.

-Not wanting to jump the gun. It seems that Hurricanes often get hyped, and then when or if they hit landfall, they are not as bad as they were hyped. There were several storms already this year, that did not live up to the hype. People get weary of that and think that this one will be like the last one. I saw this in some of the interviews before the storm hit. At the official level, the responsible people know the costs of mobilization and deployment of assets, and if the situation proves to be less serious, there is a lot of time and money spent for nothing.

All the blame mongering is misguided at best and opportunistic at worst. I think that everyone in the relief effort is working hard and is genuinely concerned. Any gov't efforts are going to be delayed somewhat no matter what. Considering the magnitude, this mobilization can't occur overnight.

Our country lives by perceptions. The perception of threats have to be balanced by the perception of current problems. This country would not support a large force, doing nothing but waiting around so that they are ready at a moments notice. Look at fire departments around the country: Under staffed, under funded. And they are the responders to an everyday crisis. People like to blame others for this or that, but on the whole, the readiness that is provided is what the public in general is willing to support in the form of taxes. That, coupled with the competition for resources from many worth demands. It all comes down to the perceptions of risk.

None of the above are "excuses," but they are "reasons."

None of this should diminish the tragedy. It's unimaginable. Society is responding with unimaginable generosity and concern. I think that the blame mongering, though, reveals an unrealistic expectations. No one should expect a life that is free of risk and danger. Ultimately we all meet the same fate. The only difference is the circumstances.

[Stephanie]

Great post Ed.

There are so many factors, issues, that need to be taken into consideration. Somethings should've happened earlier, somethings couldn't. It's easy to become complacent all the way from funding to a person's emotions when it comes to the "possibility" that something like this can or will happen. This tragedy has given us ALOT to think about and learn from in the future.

[Miss Mary]

I think one of the first problems they had was advising people to head to the Superdome. And to bring enough food and water for their families, for several days. I remember hearing a specific amount....4 or 5 days? Now if you're fleeing on foot, with little children, who probably want to be carried in the first place, how in the world are you going to cart all of that, on your back? Or maybe in a wagon? I'm sure there just wasn't time to bring all of those supplies. We've gone camping before and it takes lots of preplanning. Imagine trying to grab all of those supplies, sleeping bags and bedding too, clean clothes, etc. AND food/water?

I swear when I first heard they were told to bring all of this, I thought, you watch some will show up with just the clothes on their backs.

So in just this one example, I think it is so sad the Superdome couldn't be set up the way the Astrodome is right now (neat rows of cots, supplies, volunteers) right from the start. Same with the Convention Center.

There are hundreds and hundreds of very sad stories. But if you were to interview these Superdome evacuees, I'm sure some would just assume there'd be supplies. Meager maybe, but there'd be in place. Imagine just having 50 people show up at your house, you haven't been to the grocery in a week, you're very low on milk, have half a loaf of bread, etc. How would you feed them?

I don't know what the answer is honestly. But as Stephanie said we, as a country, will learn from this. And we need to make a vow never to be caught unprepared again - any city, large or small, in this country. Again.

I keep remembering the advice we were given over 2 years ago, before we invaded Iraq. Buy bottled water, non perishable foods, plastic sheeting, duct tape and set up one room in your house as a safe room. I'm not saying this would have helped anyone in NO, but it is a start. If you have these supplies just sitting somewhere in your home, organzied, on shelves, maybe some of these families that hurried to the Superdome, could have just easily opened that closet door, and brought them. Then again, it takes time to accumulate all of these items and they are not cheap either. I know some of the families were living below poverty level. It is all so sad. My heart breaks for all they've been thru.

I'm probably not making much sense here but I think I'm going to implement that safe room here at home and begin collecting bottled water/food, etc.

Mary

[al79philly]

Good post, but... I just read this from FEMA director Mike Brown

We thought we had the standard hurricane and that we'd immediately respond and have things in order in a couple of days and then the levee broke and that hampered us and then some idiots decided they'd get guns and start shooting and that almost put our rescue efforts at a halt. If you don't think it frustrates an urban search and rescue person when they are trying to save lives and they have to stop because they are being shot at, then you are wrong.

Is there anyone here - anyone at all - that thought this was "the standard hurricane" last Sunday as it was nearing the coast?

[morgan]

I think the media and people have been very quick to jump on the federal government for all of the problems. With the NHC indicating a Cat 4 (11 p.m. advisory Friday night) hitting N.O. and knowing all of the data indicating a levee breach, mass flooding, and mass drownings, I do question why the N.O. mayor did not call for an evacuation Saturday around noon. This is not a regular coastal area that will be dry once the storm surge receeds. You can't afford to take chances or sleep on it until Sunday with that much at stake. Although they may not have been able to complete a full evacuation plan, they could have gotten thousands out via buses.

It also appears that the LA governor made troop requests assuming the levees did not break which should not have been the assumption since Lake P was rising causing increased pressure on the levees.

Also, why were ships from Norfolk not moving south at that time and were any suitable ships in Pensacola being readied? It seems Houston would have been the safest staging area since the front moving from the NW was protecting it. The NHC was predicting a N.O. hit with a possibility of it going more east. It doesn't seem there was much risk of it moving too far west.

[artist]

everyone needs to check out the thread Air Force Met has started - it has the plan that was to be implemented by the state and the parishes -

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=73412

[themusk]

Good post, but... I just read this from FEMA director Mike Brown

We thought we had the standard hurricane and that we'd immediately respond and have things in order in a couple of days and then the levee broke and that hampered us and then some idiots decided they'd get guns and start shooting and that almost put our rescue efforts at a halt. If you don't think it frustrates an urban search and rescue person when they are trying to save lives and they have to stop because they are being shot at, then you are wrong.

Is there anyone here - anyone at all - that thought this was "the standard hurricane" last Sunday as it was nearing the coast?

It helps to remember that most of FEMA's head honchos these days have no emergency management experience. They're just political appointees, whose understanding of weather phenomena comes from catching The Weather Channel out of the corner of their eye in an airport every now and then.

[artist]

FEMA is not at fault here - the state and local parishes are - read the thread to the link I posted above.

[x-y-no]

Just to add to the information pool ... this letter was sent by the Governor to President Bush on Sunday:

http://gov.louisiana.gov/Disaster%20Relief%20Request.pdf

This reads like a pretty broad request for federal aid to me, but I freely admit I don't know the legalities.

[artist]

if you will read the EOC plan at Air Force Met's thread you will see where this came in.

[x-y-no]

if you will read the EOC plan at Air Force Met's thread you will see where this came in.

Well, I read it. Perhaps you can clarify how this relates to the governors letter. I was merely saying that it looks to me like she made a broad request for Federal aid already on Sunday, and this appears to cantradict claims I have seen that she made no such request and that's the reason Federal assistance was delayed.

In particular, she says:

"I request direct Federal assistance for work and services to save lives and protect property."

Seems like a pretty broad request to me. OTOH, that's folloewed by two bullet points on debris removal, so does this mean the resquest was really limited to that? I can't answer that one either way.

[mijakamaj]

IMO, there doesn't seem to be anyone capable or willing to assume the positions of leadership required to coordinate and manage this situation.
Instead, those with positions of leadership are casting political stones at those with the power to help. This is not a political situation. It's a human situation. There is no Republican or Democrat side to this tragedy nor is there a black or white side.

It seems the NO officials didn't take this storm threat seriously and as such, many people are dying and paying the ultimate price for the gross failures of their elected leaders.

[themusk]

FEMA is not at fault here - the state and local parishes are - read the thread to the link I posted above.

FEMA didn't initiate the cascade of failures; but when the head of FEMA says he thought it was going to be a standard hurricane, there's a bit of a problem at the top.