One Year Ago Today......

[Scorpion]

A legend was born.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 030835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2004

...IVAN FORMS OVER FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...NINTH NAMED STORM OF THE
2004 SEASON...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 30.7 WEST OR ABOUT 610 MILES... 985 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...10.0 N... 30.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER RHOME/JARVINEN


000
WTNT44 KNHC 030840
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THIS AND THE IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE...T.D. NINE IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IVAN. IVAN
CONTINUES TO MOVE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12. GLOBALS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH IVAN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ACCORDINGLY...DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SAVE NOGAPS WHICH IS SLOWER AND MORE
POLEWARD...AND THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
ESSENTIALLY MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT FORWARD SPEED OF 15 TO 17 KNOTS.

IVAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME EASTERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SITUATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND
IVAN WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO
AGGRESSIVELY STRENGTHEN IVAN TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY 84
HOURS BUT THIS APPEARS A BIT MUCH GIVEN THE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL NOT
TOTALLY DIMINISH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MORE MODEST
STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER RHOME/JARVINEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 10.0N 30.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 10.1N 33.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 10.3N 36.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 10.6N 39.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 10.9N 42.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 11.6N 49.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 13.0N 55.2W 80 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 15.0N 61.0W 85 KT

[MiamiensisWx]

I remember looking at Ivan when it formed... it's amazing how quickly it became very well-organized (for a tropical storm) and formed that far east. It looked pretty impressive almost immeadiately when it exited the coast of Africa.

[fci]

One year ago today:
We were hit by Hurricane Francis.

[27-80]

yeah, we were in Palm Beach Gardens and couldn't follow Ivan. Our power was already out (thanks FPL!) as Frances was approaching.

[wxwatcher91]

and right off the bat Ivan begins strengthening

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2004

...IVAN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.9 WEST OR ABOUT 745
MILES...1200 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION... 9.6 N... 32.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$
NNNN

[jimvb]

One year ago this past week (2004 Aug 30), the Richmond, VA area was hit with severe flooding by Hurricane Gaston. Gaston may not have been one of the Big Ones of 2004 overall, but it was the Big One for us. It kept haning off the coast of Virginia for days, then went to the southeast and developed. It struck South Carolina as the barest of hurricanes, then moved northward over land to Raleigh and Richmond. When it struck Richmond, it flooded the downtown area, wiping out several merchants. There was hardly a passable road in Richmond that night, preventing my wife (an evening nurse) from coming into work. It also flooded an apartment complex near a lake created by a dam. There were many dramatic rescues that night. Bottoms Up Pizza finally opened recently but several merchants never reopened. A night to remember.