Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[x-y-no]

The 0Z European continues to lose 92L completely - in fact it has no new development at all out to 7 days at least (which seems climatologically unlikely).

OTOH, the UKMET is now jumping all over 92L - every bit as enthusiastic as the GFS was through last night, and also taking it just NE of the leewards.

The 6Z GFS is weaker with it, and further north. This is an outlier for the GFS runs, though, so I'd like to see a few more runs follow the same trend before I buy it.

All GFS runs continue to take it north into a weakness in the long range, missing the US coast.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050902 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050902 1200 050903 0000 050903 1200 050904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.5N 35.0W 10.5N 37.8W 10.4N 40.4W 10.3N 42.9W
BAMM 10.5N 35.0W 10.8N 37.9W 10.8N 40.8W 10.6N 43.5W
A98E 10.5N 35.0W 10.9N 37.9W 11.1N 40.7W 11.1N 43.6W
LBAR 10.5N 35.0W 10.9N 37.8W 11.4N 41.1W 11.7N 44.6W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050904 1200 050905 1200 050906 1200 050907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.3N 45.6W 10.6N 50.3W 11.8N 54.0W 14.3N 56.4W
BAMM 10.4N 46.2W 10.8N 50.2W 13.1N 52.9W 16.8N 55.2W
A98E 10.8N 46.3W 10.7N 51.1W 10.4N 55.4W 10.6N 59.0W
LBAR 12.0N 48.4W 12.0N 56.2W 10.8N 61.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 57KTS 70KTS 77KTS 82KTS
DSHP 57KTS 70KTS 77KTS 82KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 35.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 32.1W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 29.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


SSD Dvorak sat estimates position was 10n and now the models position is 10.5n meaning that they discounted that low way down in latitud and now are focusing in a new low more north.What this all means is not known but the further north the further away from the ITCZ it goes.

[sma10]

I've seen some good looking systems fizzle fast in my day, but I think this one takes the cake.

[boca]

The system dissappeared very quickly why?

[gatorcane]

it's amazing how conditions have been very unfavorable for tropical development most of this season - despite all of the hype -and it doesn't appear things will change anytime soon. BUT we still ended up with a major killer hurricane despite the unfavorable conditions which shows any year should not be taken lightly.

[jabber]

it's amazing how conditions have been very unfavorable for tropical development most of this season - despite all of the hype -and it doesn't appear things will change anytime soon. BUT we still ended up with a major killer hurricane despite the unfavorable
conditions which shows any year should not be taken lightly.

I am not throwing in the towel yet...

[Hyperstorm]

This morning, the ITCZ low has weakened considerably and convection has diminished markedly. Let's continue to monitor it just in case it moves WNW away from the ITCZ. The problem is not the latitude it's in, the problem is more related to it not being associated with a good forcing mechanism as is a tropical wave or monsoon trough. Usually these disturbances just continue westward without significant development even if conditions are favorable as they struggle to persist. It's been 2-3 days since the squall line came off the coast and its vortex of low pressure has not developed so far as is common. It's very interesting to note that climatology with these disturbances continues to rule.

Of interest is a VIGOROUS low pressure center that I've been watching with interest over the past few days and is ready to move off the coast during the next 24-48 hours. Its location is very near 11.5N 5.0W. Right now, there is a trough of low pressure just north of the CV islands, which could slow development or even destroy it, but if it somehow manages to stay far enough south and avoids these westerlies, this one could be the first real CV storm of the season.

[gatorcane]

This morning, the ITCZ low has weakened considerably and convection has diminished markedly. Let's continue to monitor it just in case it moves WNW away from the ITCZ. The problem is not the latitude it's in, the problem is more related to it not being associated with a good forcing mechanism as is a tropical wave or monsoon trough. Usually these disturbances just continue westward without significant development even if conditions are favorable as they struggle to persist. It's been 2-3 days since the squall line came off the coast and its vortex of low pressure has not developed so far as is common. It's very interesting to note that climatology with these disturbances continues to rule.

Of interest is a VIGOROUS low pressure center that I've been watching with interest over the past few days and is ready to move off the coast during the next 24-48 hours. Its location is very near 11.5N 5.0W. Right now, there is a trough of low pressure just north of the CV islands, which could slow development or even destroy it, but if it somehow manages to stay far enough south and avoids these westerlies, this one could be the first real CV storm of the season.

Could we go through an entire season without a real CV storm? This may just be the season.

[Jim Cantore]

Is it just me or did hurricane Ivan form in this SAME EXACT AREA THIS DAY ONE YEAR AGO

[clfenwi]

Is it just me or did hurricane Ivan form in this SAME EXACT AREA THIS DAY ONE YEAR AGO

general vicinity yes, but not 'SAME EXACT AREA'...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

...NINTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 29.1 WEST OR ABOUT 555
MILES... 890 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

[SouthFloridawx]

well that looks like the end of that.... no more convection good thing it was looking like a long hauler yesterday

[Jim Cantore]

I said area not spot lol

[BensonTCwatcher]

This evening there have been interesting developments regarding 92L.

Remember the earlier low pressure center that we were tracking and it was WELL east of the convection? That low pressure center is totally weakening and elongating.

HOWEVER, a NEW MLC and possibly a LLC with a new low pressure center appears to be developing MUCH closer, and in fact, underneath the area of convection very near 8.5N 37.5W. If that trend continues, this will be classified as a tropical depression.

The system has had trouble so far (for the reasons I've mentioned i.e. ITCZ low, i.e. squall line low, etc.) and that's why development up to this point has been VERY slow. Now that the system appears to be developing its own low pressure center underneath the convection, the chances of development are definitely increasing.

It is still moving VERY quickly westward and that is an inhibiting factor as that means that it is still associated with the ITCZ. It has to slow down and begin to track WNW for it to FULLY develop. Development past depression stage will depend on this.

I'm still not jumping on significant development, but the chances are higher due to this new low pressure development. If it becomes a tropical storm it will be VERY unusual and in fact, I have not seen this kind of a system develop in recent years.

It's always nice to follow what climatology says, but sometimes its rules are not followed.

I will be very interested in seeing how this scenario transpires...

Good call there. I thought it would break from the ITCZ last night or eraly this morning. I am glad I was wrong though.

[fci]

I said area not spot lol

A little testy???

[cycloneye]

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.


5:30 PM TWO.

92L is not dead by any means.

[PuertoRicoLibre]

I noticed that too.

[WeatherEmperor]

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.


5:30 PM TWO.

92L is not dead by any means.

if you look carefully, some very small flare up of showers/storms is coming back to 92L although its limited at the time.

<RICKY>

[Anthonyl]

Hey guys I've been watching the area of convection around the LLC flare up quit significantly over the past few hours nad given the TWO there is still that open window for development. Obviously as can been clearly seen not rapid development, but perhaps Td status before 61w.

[Nimbus]

The convection is tracking west pretty quickly already to 11N at 42W.

Almost looks like a little turning is starting around a LLC but its hard to tell with just infrared.

Worth checking in the morning visibles.

[jabber]

The convection is tracking west pretty quickly already to 11N at 42W.

Almost looks like a little turning is starting around a LLC but its hard to tell with just infrared.

Worth checking in the morning visibles.

I think the morning will show some action with this. I say a TD by Sat am