Tropical Storm Maria,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks good, but those models are very inaccurate. Does the gfdl, the ukmet, or gfs show the same thing, including NOGAPS.

just read the 11am NHC discussion. That should give some light on that subject.

<RICKY>

[krysof]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html


Interesting how the Gfdl goes NNW and then quickly bends practically west!

[NateFLA]

Not sure how updated this is. GFDL takes it North into the weakness not West.

Are we seeing UKMET on that one?! We're down in the Legal warning!

This is not the 160mph 916mb monster that GFS and GFDL are showing, is it?

[SouthFloridawx]

no it's 92L

[NateFLA]

no it's 92L

Ah yes, I see that now. Thank you for clarification.

[SouthFloridawx]

NP

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The MLC/convection is inline with the LLC now. With outflow becoming better defined to the northwest/north. I expect it to be upgraded to a tropical storm.

[krysof]

Not sure how updated this is. GFDL takes it North into the weakness not West.

Are we seeing UKMET on that one?! We're down in the Legal warning!

This is not the 160mph 916mb monster that GFS and GFDL are showing, is it?

No, the gfdl does show it move northward, but then goes west. Could the high be building in. This one may or may not be a hurricane. Models are all over the place. 92L is very intresting though, but I don't think it will effect us or even form.

[SouthFloridawx]

sorry you are correct that was my fault. UKMET is the blue one but, I knew what you meant

[krysof]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html


Bam model changes significantly, now going NW and then WNW.

[SouthFloridawx]

[BensonTCwatcher]

well the BAM's are loosing thier value as this system gets more lattitude. BUT the GFDL in agreement with a left turn is somewhat interesting. Have to watch and see if this is a new trend or not.

[krysof]

the x trap model is pathetic and it shifts all the time rapidly, the Lbar is equally inaccurate, and the NHCA9 is also inaccurate. The best models are the GFDL, the Ukmet, Nogaps, Bams are not that reliable, and the Gfs fairs the same.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The BAM's i.e BAM deep, BAM shallow, BAM medium are tropic models and are not set up to be useful above say 20N. The extrap is the extrapolation of the current initial motion. it is the direction the storm is moving at the time. The GFDL is is based on the GFS ( Global Forecasting System) and is a true global model i.e. it takes into account the global features in the atmosphere. same for UKmet. I think the NOGAPS is the Navy version based on GFS.

They all have thier value, like any other tool you have to know how to use it.

The globals will carry the most weight from here on out. The BAMS are useful overlayed since they smooth out the motion. They react more like a real storm will i.e. no sharp turns blazing increases in speed, left hooks etc. Use them as group and over time, and they will tell you where the storm is really going, not run to run.

[Brent]

the x trap model is pathetic and it shifts all the time rapidly, the Lbar is equally inaccurate, and the NHCA9 is also inaccurate. The best models are the GFDL, the Ukmet, Nogaps, Bams are not that reliable, and the Gfs fairs the same.

The XTRAP is NOT a model... it is simply an extrapolation of the current motion. IT SHOULD BE IGNORED!!

[leonardo]

the x trap model is pathetic and it shifts all the time rapidly, the Lbar is equally inaccurate, and the NHCA9 is also inaccurate. The best models are the GFDL, the Ukmet, Nogaps, Bams are not that reliable, and the Gfs fairs the same.

xtrap = extrapolation (sp?), i.e., the heading of the storm at the current time.
(edit: Brent beat me to it)

but you are correct, the lbar and nhc98ae are absolute garbage. however, they do look a bit more normal this run. as in, not taking the system west-southwest then southwest, followed by a 180 to the northeast . we saw something similar to that earlier today with the run of 92L

[krysof]

Thank you for clarifying that about the X trap, the answers a lot of questions I had about it.

[cycloneye]

02/1145 UTC 21.0N 49.2W T2.5/2.5 91 -- Atlantic Ocean


Umm maybe at 11 AM we may see Maria with those T Numbers up to Tropical Storm force.

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FOURTEEN (AL142005) ON 20050902 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050902 1200 050903 0000 050903 1200 050904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
A98E 21.3N 49.5W 22.7N 51.6W 24.4N 53.1W 26.5N 54.3W
LBAR 21.3N 49.5W 23.1N 50.9W 24.9N 52.0W 26.7N 53.1W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 55KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050904 1200 050905 1200 050906 1200 050907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
A98E 28.3N 55.4W 33.2N 56.5W 38.3N 54.8W 43.0N 47.4W
LBAR 28.6N 53.6W 31.3N 53.8W 32.4N 53.9W 32.8N 54.0W
SHIP 61KTS 71KTS 79KTS 83KTS
DSHP 61KTS 71KTS 79KTS 83KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.3N LONCUR = 49.5W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 19.8N LONM12 = 47.0W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 45.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 30NM



Yes here is Maria.

[gatorcane]

I thought Maria was gone into fishland...however it looks like some models are bending more West now? Could someone bring me up-to-date?