GFDL predicts invest21l to be 163 mph in 120h an pressure 91

[Hyperstorm]

917 mb and 140 mph? While its possible(Katrina) it seems a little skeptical for a strengthening system.

not 140mph... 142kts and at 950mb... considering the eyewall would have pressures in the 920s to 930s in a 917mb cane, winds would be 142 x 1.15 = 163.3mph at 950mph... but because 950mb wouldnt be possible considering a 917mb storm... winds would be like 170 according to the model...

oh and just to make things clear- I'm only doing the math and in no way does this say anything about my opinion of the model forecast.

wxwatcher,

950 mb is a LEVEL of the atmosphere, it is not the pressure of the storm.
Everyone needs to always convert the GFDL forecast winds to the surface (from 950 mb) at approximately 85% of those Flight-Level winds.

yeah I know but there wouldnt be a 950mb level in this case would there? because since pressures are lower than 950 at the surface and they only lower from there... there wouldnt be a 950 level...

sorry if I'm screwing this up... somebody want to help me out on this? lol

wxwatcher,

Frankly, I don't know very well the technicalities of the GFDL model. I'm sure somebody more versed in this department will help you.

[johngaltfla]

Let's not forget that the GFDL was the only model that forecasted the SW track of Katrina thru South Florida.

Uh, thanks for the reminder?

If that storm is there, and the high builds back in, we're screwed. It's almost BETTER (God forgive me for saying that) that the storm hits Florida or the East Coast and dies.

Because if a storm makes it to Houston/Galveston as a 3/4/5, we're toast.

[truballer#1]

it looks it could head to nc/sc if gfdl was right

[tomboudreau]

Whats the time frame for a possible US hit?

[shaggy]

to far out to worry about let it get to the point in the GFDL forecast before making any assumptions!!!

NOTE TO SELF" i said the same thing bout katrina becoming a cat 5!!!!!

[Astro_man92]

I'm going to blow this off and say that it is wrong because if it says that this is heading for the US we are screwed I’d say

Katrina has destroyed the economy enough I'd say we don't need a hurricane like that ever again but if it is going to happen again have it happen in 50 to 60 years
(I’m really uneasy for some reason)

Edit: oh and I don't care if the GFDL was right on it doesn’t mean that it will again because it wasn't right on the rest of the season (was it??) so why start believing everything it says now

[truballer#1]

it was actually right on a lot of the storms this season

[Astro_man92]

it was actually right on a lot of the storms this season

Oh, but still

[Brent]

Whats the time frame for a possible US hit?

Roughly 10 days.

Models have it near the Leeward Islands in 6 days.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think we need to move this discussion to the 92L thread? I thought this was a new something the GFDL was picking up

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS 18Z agrees with GFDL

[/img]http://met.psu.edu/~arnottj/CHARM/tcgengifs/avn/2005090118//slp24.png[img][/img]

[truballer#1]

[imghttp://met.psu.edu/~arnottj/CHARM/tcgengifs/avn/2005090118//slp24.png[/img]

[truballer#1]

[/img]http://met.psu.edu/~arnottj/CHARM/tcgengifs/avn/2005090118//slp24.png[img][/img]

[truballer#1]

[/img]http://met.psu.edu/~arnottj/CHARM/tcgengifs/avn/2005090118//slp24.png[img]

[truballer#1]

srry bout dat

[SouthFloridawx]

you have to right click and view image.

[hicksta]

Dont come to texas. thanks!

[SouthFloridawx]

GFLD 23Z

[truballer#1]

[img]http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png[img][/img]

[gunner1551]

Freaking A!

correctly pronouced eh! from a canadian lol.