Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #201 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 4:22 pm

It looking very good. Might be a depression at 11pm tonight.

#202 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 4:33 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It looking very good. Might be a depression at 11pm tonight.

its amazing that it has the potential to become a TD and it being so far south.

<RICKY>

#203 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 4:40 pm

Probably not tonight or tomorrow early in the morning, the NHC will probably wait until the 11 AM advisories before doing any upgrade, because they usually like to watch the visible images before making any decision. But if the system increases in organization during the next 12 hours, then they may upgrade the system tonight or tomorrow at 5 am.

cajungal · #204 Postby **cajungal** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 4:44 pm

Just let it be a fish and keep it away from the Gulf. That is all I have to say.

Scorpion · #205 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 4:53 pm

This isn't gonna be a fish. Hopefully it will go north of the islands. GFDL shows it doing so, but as a Cat 5. Would be a problem for Florida if that panned out.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #206 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 4:55 pm

Scorpion wrote:This isn't gonna be a fish. Hopefully it will go north of the islands. GFDL shows it doing so, but as a Cat 5. Would be a problem for Florida if that panned out.

Sure has that shape already to it.

cajungal · #207 Postby **cajungal** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:12 pm

Great. Because if it becomes a threat to Florida, more chance of it getting in the Gulf. :eek:

My heart already bleeds for everyone suffering from Katrina, we can't take anymore down here.

Rashid · #208 Postby **Rashid** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:14 pm

I know that QS isn't showing a closed low but this thing is dang close to being a 35kt TS. Outflow is well established in the western and northern portions of the disturbance and convection has been persistent for approximately 18-24 hours. This should be upgraded by 5am EDT.

For those worried about another threat to our mainland - the faster this thing develops, the higher the chances of it spending a life at sea. In other words, cheer it on and hope that it misses Luis and all of our other friends in the islands. OR, best case scenario would be a freakish surge of shear from some unknown entity in the atmosphere that destroys the disturbance. silly pipe dreams...

Scorpion · #209 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:19 pm

I doubt it. Look at the latitude. Around 8 degree north. Not gonna be a fish.

BensonTCwatcher · #210 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:29 pm

We have 45 kt flags and one uncontaminated 50kt flag. The reality is though, until it breaks out of the ITCZ, it won't classified a cyclone. Even though we have realtive motion of the winds E,W,N, and S. they are not tightly circulating. Once it pulls out of the ITCZ, there would be data to support the upgrade. The higher level circ appears to be reflecting the LLC. The 85GHz weak pass is not over the entire circ, so maybe at 11p we will see it upgraded. It has "the look" to me on sat.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #211 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:34 pm

It has the look of Ivan to me. :eek:

Hyperstorm · #212 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:37 pm

BensonTCwatcher wrote:We have 45 kt flags and one uncontaminated 50kt flag. The reality is though, until it breaks out of the ITCZ, it won't classified a cyclone. Even though we have realtive motion of the winds E,W,N, and S. they are not tightly circulating. Once it pulls out of the ITCZ, there would be data to support the upgrade. The higher level circ appears to be reflecting the LLC. The 85GHz weak pass is not over the entire circ, so maybe at 11p we will see it upgraded. It has "the look" to me on sat.

Bingo! Since it is an ITCZ low (and not a real tropical wave), it will only develop if it breaks from it. That doesn't typically happen since it's drawing its energy from the ITCZ and hypothetically speaking, if it moves northward, it will limit its main forcing mechanism. We'll see.

BensonTCwatcher · #213 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:38 pm

Nice lookin' wave huh?

BensonTCwatcher · #214 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:42 pm

OK, somebody help me fix the link :roll:

#215 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:48 pm

Scorpion wrote:This isn't gonna be a fish. Hopefully it will go north of the islands. GFDL shows it doing so, but as a Cat 5. Would be a problem for Florida if that panned out.

how come FL is always in the mix of things if its so far out?

<RICKY>

Website · #216 Postby **Brent** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:48 pm

BensonTCwatcher wrote:OK, somebody help me fix the link

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_d ... N-335W.jpg

Put the img tags around that...

BensonTCwatcher · #217 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:51 pm

Thanks Brent I was trying tpo post the one with the Scatt. wind barbs overlay. How do I get the correct img URL?

Website · #218 Postby **Brent** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:56 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_d ... N-301W.jpg

The others are really old...

BensonTCwatcher · #219 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:57 pm

OK there it is, I Got it now :lol:

#220 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 6:17 pm

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