Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[BensonTCwatcher]

I am not going with any of the models until they use the same circ center twice in a row at least I think the deep tropic models overall may be better guidance at this point, given the location. We could see a re-formation one or more times here in the next 12 hrs. Somethings cooking alright, but I am not jumping on the cat 5 train just yet...

[jabber]

I'm going with a UKMET-like track at this point:

That crazy LBAR

[cycloneye]

LOOKING AHEAD...WE ARE KEEPING AND EYE ON AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS LOCATED
MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL
ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST POSSIBLE
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM WHILE MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
OVER THE WARM TROPICAL ATLANTIC.


The above from the AFD NWS San Juan.

Already they are talking about the system.

[Praxus]

Looking good. Would be nice to have 2 Cat 5's in one month, just for the record.

Wow. just wow.

Add me to the list of people not getting excited by these storms anymore.
The current situation in the gulf has made me pretty sick of it. Or maybe
just sick.

[PuertoRicoLibre]

1. Chances are NHC will not upgrade to TD15 at 5 pm based just on Q. passes, although I kind of find that last infrared disturbing.

2. No, it would not be good to have two category 5's in one month, or at any time, for the record.

[Canelaw99]

Box #1 is defined by the points 20N/60W, 15N/60W, 15N/65W, and 20N/65W.

Box #2 is defined by the points 20N/80W, 15N/80W. 15N/85W, and 20N/85W.

See http://hurricanecity.com/images/hebertbox.gif for visual reference.

Thank you!

[Fego]

What is a herbert box?. Is an important climo fact or a myth?

[Canelaw99]

What is a herbert box?. Is an important climo fact or a myth?

Would have to look up the official stats (maybe someone has them handy?), but theory is that when a storm hits Box 1 (15N - 20N and 60W- 65W), there's a better chance for it to hit S. FL.

[aquaholic901]

What is a herbert box?. Is an important climo fact or a myth?

Interesting, I was wondering as well:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[Andrew92]

Looking good. Would be nice to have 2 Cat 5's in one month, just for the record.

Are you kidding? Let me inform you, Katrina was NOT the C5 she had been when she made landfall....she was a C4 in the delta, and a C3 in Mississippi. Another C5 would be COOL in your opinion? I think we've had enough records set this season, don't you?

And right now, I'm not sold on 92L becoming a C5. But I do think it develops further over time.

-Andrew92

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yeah... The NRL site gets more frequent passes than for the NOAA QS.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Go to 92, then mouse over Scatt ( upper right) and click on wind barbs.


Lotta energy

[Nimbus]

92L does not look as though it will follow TD14 east of Bermuda.

Since it will be passing over warmer water I suspect it will start picking up convection again even though the convection is a little sparse now.

Hard to believe it won't gain some latitude if it spins up.

The models that have it diving into South America must be keeping it as a weak system.

The big islands look like they could be on the strong side of the storm so the UKMET is probably the best compromise track.

What is JB saying about this one?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Also,

This loop is updated more frequently. Looks like it's going from blobbed to banded....to use technical terms of course

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/atlanticoceansatellite_large_animated.html

[Fego]

Interesting. Well, here in Puerto Rico we also have our Herbet Box: Guadalupe island. If a hurricane or storm pass over or very close to Guadalupe, chances are that we will be hit.

[cycloneye]

Interesting. Well, here in Puerto Rico we also have our Herbet Box: Guadalupe island. If a hurricane or storm pass over or very close to Guadalupe, chances are that we will be hit.

Yes that is right.And the 12z UKMET has that box as the track moving it close to Guadeloupe.

[jabber]

92L does not look as though it will follow TD14 east of Bermuda.

Since it will be passing over warmer water I suspect it will start picking up convection again even though the convection is a little sparse now.

Hard to believe it won't gain some latitude if it spins up.

The models that have it diving into South America must be keeping it as a weak system.

The big islands look like they could be on the strong side of the storm so the UKMET is probably the best compromise track.

What is JB saying about this one?

JB is saying that this will be a player for the US, not sure yet Southeast or Gulf.

[PuertoRicoLibre]

Interesting. Well, here in Puerto Rico we also have our Herbet Box: Guadalupe island. If a hurricane or storm pass over or very close to Guadalupe, chances are that we will be hit.

Yes that is right.And the 12z UKMET has that box as the track moving it close to Guadeloupe.

Close, as in right on top of Guadeloupe close.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yep, the GFDL makes it a nasty one too, and hints at teh ridge filling back in which would keep it from re-curving Long way to go.....

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LEE...CENTERED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN...CENTERED ABOUT 1085 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4 AND
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

FORECASTER KNABB


5:30 PM TWO

[HURAKAN]

Could we have Maria and Nate roaming by the weekend? It seems more and more likely!