Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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gatorcane
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#161 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:41 pm

As I suspected, 92L WILL be THE Cape Verde Hurricane of 2005...
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#162 Postby Canelaw99 » Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:41 pm

PuertoRicoLibre wrote:Two Cat 5's in one month? Now that would be another record.


Techincally, they would be in 2 different months because Kat was in August and we're in September now. However, 2 within a couple of weeks of each other does warrant a :eek: face.... :wink:
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#163 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:43 pm

It is still early, though, although the system needs to be watched closely.

If the weakeness in the ridge remains, the system will likely gradually curve away from Florida.
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#164 Postby cinlfla » Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:43 pm

As I suspected, 92L WILL be THE Cape Verde Hurricane of 2005...



You know I use to get excited to see hurricanes forming, but now I am getting sick at my stomach just the thought of another Hurricane and the possible threat of land :cry:
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#165 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:44 pm

It is still early, though, although the system needs to be watched closely.

If the weakness in the ridge remains, the system will likely gradually curve away from Florida.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#166 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:45 pm

Image

12z UKMET.It plows into the Leeward islands as a Hurricane.
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#167 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:46 pm

I'm thinking maybe Georges like(at least until it gets through Puerto Rico). Beyond that... your guess is as good as mine.
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#168 Postby Canelaw99 » Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:46 pm

^^ I don't like that one AT ALL!

EDIT: Can someone remind me/us of the location of the Herbert box? (I think there are 2, so both would be fine)......
Last edited by Canelaw99 on Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#169 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:48 pm

:eek:
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#170 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:52 pm

Not too hard to figure though considering it may already be a TS. i.e. the 45 and the one 50+ knot flag I posted before.

If it really is spooling up that quickly and not just a burst from a T-strom it coudl mean that it will gian height faster and may track further north away from the islands. Perhaps that is wishful thinking, but it is still too soon to tell. I think we will see an upgrade to TD next go-round
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#171 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:53 pm

BensonTCwatcher wrote:Not too hard to figure though considering it may already be a TS. i.e. the 45 and the one 50+ knot flag I posted before.

If it really is spooling up that quickly and not just a burst from a T-strom it coudl mean that it will gian height faster and may track further north away from the islands. Perhaps that is wishful thinking, but it is still too soon to tell. I think we will see an upgrade to TD next go-round


I'm surprised it's not already a TD...
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#172 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:54 pm

:shocked!:

Image

:eek:

Supports a 900 mb storm near the Islands...
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#173 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:55 pm

Well we have seen a lot of downgrades this year. Need some time to be sure it will stay that way. Not threatening anything yet, so I am not really surprised. Besides, what would the NHC home page look like with 3 storms on it? :lol:
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#174 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:57 pm

BensonTCwatcher wrote:Well we have seen a lot of downgrades this year. Need some time to be sure it will stay that way. Not threatening anything yet, so I am not really surprised. Besides, what would the NHC home page look like with 3 storms on it? :lol:


It's already too cluttered...

:lol:
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#175 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:58 pm

When you see a pretty good consensus of the global models you have to pay more definite attention.
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#176 Postby dwg71 » Thu Sep 01, 2005 3:00 pm

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Am I the only not impressed with this system, it looked a lot better earlier this morning and its really elongated N to S.

Lets wait and see before we start talking Cat 5 on a invest...
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#177 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 01, 2005 3:03 pm

I'm going with a UKMET-like track at this point:

Image
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#178 Postby clfenwi » Thu Sep 01, 2005 3:04 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:^^ I don't like that one AT ALL!

EDIT: Can someone remind me/us of the location of the Herbert box? (I think there are 2, so both would be fine)......


Box #1 is defined by the points 20N/60W, 15N/60W, 15N/65W, and 20N/65W.

Box #2 is defined by the points 20N/80W, 15N/80W. 15N/85W, and 20N/85W.

See http://hurricanecity.com/images/hebertbox.gif for visual reference.
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#179 Postby Scorpion » Thu Sep 01, 2005 3:10 pm

Looking good. Would be nice to have 2 Cat 5's in one month, just for the record.
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#180 Postby P.K. » Thu Sep 01, 2005 3:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z UKMET.It plows into the Leeward islands as a Hurricane.


Here is the actual model output, not good:

WTNT80 EGRR 011743



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.09.2005

TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 8.0N 29.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 01.09.2005 8.0N 29.6W WEAK

00UTC 02.09.2005 8.1N 33.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 02.09.2005 8.6N 35.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 03.09.2005 9.5N 36.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.09.2005 10.5N 38.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.09.2005 11.4N 41.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.09.2005 12.3N 44.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.09.2005 13.1N 46.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.09.2005 13.8N 49.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2005 14.4N 53.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.09.2005 15.2N 56.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2005 15.9N 59.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2005 16.5N 62.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011743
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