Atlantic Basin Shear Discussion, Shear Charts, Q&As, Etc

[MiamiensisWx]

I've noticed that while the amount of shear in the Atlantic Basin due to weather systems and factors (such as ULLs, etc.) is becoming increasingly important as factors in the 2005 Atlantic hurricane Season, there are little or no threads to discuss this. That's why I thought of starting one here!

I've decided to open up a discussion on shear trends in the Atlantic Basin and how shear conditions are allowing or are inhibiting development as we enter the height of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and the prime time of the Cape Verde Season.

Questions, answers, shear charts, shear information (including on current shear trends) and more is proudly welcomed! Friendly, info-based debate is also welcome.

Latest shear and weather patterns information...

Shear chart...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Winds...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsea_latestBW.gif

Weather systems...
http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu/surf/images/tanal.1.gif

More related information...
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

Sharing of other links is also allowed. Enjoy and discuss, everyone!

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Good charts, southfloridawx2005!

Right now, there is a lot of deep shear around Florida, the Bahamas and southeastern U.S. There is at leadt 20KT to 30KT shear in the area. This could at least (hopefully) temporarily prove to be an unfavorable boon to tropical development. Currently, shear is the main thing inhibiting more development in the Atlantic Basin, although there are pockets of dry air in and around the Caribbean. However, they are not as strong as earlier.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

[krysof]

bump, shear looks like its really decreasing in the bahamas.

[SouthFloridawx]

bump, shear looks like its really decreasing in the bahamas.

YOUR RIGHT!!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

bump, shear looks like its really decreasing in the bahamas.

Although the shear still remains, it DOES now appear to be slowly decreasing. Instead of 30KT shear, the latest shear chart shows mainly 20KT shear in the area instead. Could it mean better development chances for the system(s) near the Bahamas? Hmm...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

The latest developmental chances charts show conditions improving gradually around Florida and in the Bahamas for development. Click on the link and just scroll down to the "Tropical Cyclone Intensification Potential" chart...
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

[WeatherEmperor]

Yes the shear has dropped some over the past 24 hours or so. Gonna be interesting to see how the global models take this in future runs.

<RICKY>

[MiamiensisWx]

Yes the shear has dropped some over the past 24 hours or so. Gonna be interesting to see how the global models take this in future runs.

<RICKY>

Yep, agreed. Interesting to note that there is increasing shear south of the southern tip of Florida around the northern areas of Cuba stretching westward to near the Keys. That might have some effect on the developmental chances of the Bahamas system, even though the shear is gradually decreasing closer to Florida and in the Bahamas. Why? There is a sharp contrast between the increasing shear to the south of Florida and the slowly decreasing shear around Florida and the Bahamas. If you look at the shear tendency chart posted by southfloridawx2005 (above), the "dividing line" between these two shear tendencies is around the southernmost tip of Florida. This may result in a "tug-of-war" between the decreasing and increasing shear, which may affect the Bahamas system.

Anyone else notice this?

[WeatherEmperor]

Yeah I see that. Like I said its gonna be very interesting if this area just sits and sits near the Bahamas for days and days. I think somebody mentioned that the 12Z GFS doesnt do much with it, except that it just drifts that area of disturbed weather close to SFL for almost 4 days. I dont know how an area of disturbed weather in the tropics over warm water, in September of all months can just sit and spin there and do nothing for 4 days. Perhaps future model runs will do something different with it. And now I will play the waiting game.....

<RICKY>

[MiamiensisWx]

Yeah I see that. Like I said its gonna be very interesting if this area just sits and sits near the Bahamas for days and days. I think somebody mentioned that the 12Z GFS doesnt do much with it, except that it just drifts that area of disturbed weather close to SFL for almost 4 days. I dont know how an area of disturbed weather in the tropics over warm water, in September of all months can just sit and spin there and do nothing for 4 days. Perhaps future model runs will do something different with it. And now I will play the waiting game.....

<RICKY>

Yep... the waiting and watching continues...

I really don't want another rain event and ESPECIALLY NOT ANOTHER GULF STORM! We are still in Katrina's catastrophic inclinations and are dealing with them...

[deltadog03]

the Euro, 00z run, has a low just drifing around the east coast of FL....

[WeatherEmperor]

the Euro, 00z run, has a low just drifing around the east coast of FL....

I have a bit more faith in the Euro. It did a great job forecasting Katrina before it became Katrina. It said that it would move towards the south florida coast and then begin to move more WSW across south florida and we all know that it ended up doing that. At least in that regard the Euro was correct. I dont remember how accurate it was after that scenario.

<RICKY>

[MiamiensisWx]

The shear around Florida and the Bahamas appears to be continuing lessening and decreasing gradually... now things may get slightly more interesting...

[MiamiensisWx]

Shear is now much less around Florida and the Bahamas... now only mainly 5KT to 10KT shear in the area. See below...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

[orion]

I understand that the lower the shear the more favorable it is for development... but could someone shed some light on what is considered strong shear and weak shear. If the charts say 10kt for example, is that weak and therefore favorable for development? or is it still too strong?

Thanks!

~orion

[MiamiensisWx]

I understand that the lower the shear the more favorable it is for development... but could someone shed some light on what is considered strong shear and weak shear. If the charts say 10kt for example, is that weak and therefore favorable for development? or is it still too strong?

Thanks!

~orion

0KT, 5KT or 10KT shear is generally considered weak to moderate. 15KT to 20KT shear is moderate to strong. 20KT shear and above is strong shear.

It depends a bit on how strong the tropical system is, however. If it is very weak and disorganized, even 5KT to 10KT shear may somewhat limit organization.

Hope I helped...

[MiamiensisWx]

*BUMP*

For shear discussion and shear charts, this is the thread to do it all. I've bumped this up for anyone who's interested.

As a side note, shear has increased to the north and to the south of INVEST.94L. The system now seems trapped in a small area of lower shear between increasing shear to the north and south. Interesting how this may affect INVEST.94L...

[MiamiensisWx]

The decrease in shear intensity around Florida and the bahamas now appears to have possibly moderated. The latest on the Shear Intensity Chart posted above by southfloridawx2005 indicates that shear may be increasing once again around Florida and the Bahamas, both to the north (caused by a building ridge) and to the south of INVEST.94L. This may mean slightly less favorable conditions for INVEST.94L to develop.

Anyone else notice this?