Growing Concern With the Area E of the Bahamas

[gatorcane]

Satellite pics indicate the convection is steadily increasing and persisting. In addition some models are forecasting the development of a low impacting FL down the road. Anybody else concerned? Thoughts welcome.

[aOl]

Well Katrina formed there so... who knows...

[cjrciadt]

I'm concerned 300 miles west of whatever the hell is that thinking it can grow into something. However with all the possible systems developing to one close to Ivan's development concerns me the most right now.

[x-y-no]

Over 30 knots vertical shear in that area, and over 40 knots west of there.

That ought to effectively suppress any development.

[WeatherEmperor]

Over 30 knots vertical shear in that area, and over 40 knots west of there.

That ought to effectively suppress any development.

I agree. Just because some showers pop up, dont mean development. By the way do you have some shear maps I can look at?

<RICKY>

[Hyperstorm]

Over 30 knots vertical shear in that area, and over 40 knots west of there.

That ought to effectively suppress any development.

Exactly what I was going to post.

No concern in the immediate future...

[mascpa]

No, not really concerned. I don't expect major development, maybe just a wet and soggy Labor Day weekend. But I will, of course, pay attention and be prepared.

[Hyperstorm]

Here's a link to the latest Upper-Level wind shear map:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[WeatherEmperor]

Here's a link to the latest Upper-Level wind shear map:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

oh wow. there is like 35-40knots of windshear in that area. there is almost no way that convection is gonna develop, any time soon.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

And of course no mention in the 11:30 AM TWO.

ABNT20 KNHC 011508
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LEE...LOCATED ABOUT 780 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA AND HAS
BEGUN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN CENTERED ABOUT 1115 EAST OR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED MIDWAY BETWEN AFRICA
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL-ORGANIZED AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4 AND
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

FORECASTER AVILA

[x-y-no]

Over 30 knots vertical shear in that area, and over 40 knots west of there.

That ought to effectively suppress any development.

I agree. Just because some showers pop up, dont mean development. By the way do you have some shear maps I can look at?

<RICKY>

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds.html

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Source: http://meteora.ucsd.edu/climate/extended.discussion


SOUTHEAST/FL...
THE ONE PLACE WHERE THE GUIDANCE DISAGREES MOST IS OVER THE SERN
CONUS AND THE ADJACENT WRN ATL WHERE THE MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT ON
THE TROFFING XPCTD TO LINGER OVER/NEAR THE REGION FROM DAY 4/SUN
THRU THE END OF THE PD... WHICH APPEARS TO FORM EITHER A
SUBTROPICAL CYC OR A BAROCLINICALLY-INITIATED TROP CYC SOMEWHERE
AROUND FL/ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
DROPPING A SHRTWV COMPLEX SEWD OFF THE ERN FL COAST ON DAY 3/SAT
AND INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE H5 LOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS ATTM.
BOTH MODELS ALSO DROP ANOTHER H5 SHRTWV SYS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE H5 TROF IN THE E ON DAYS 4/SUN AND 5/MON WHICH HELPS BREAKDOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE NERN GOMEX AND ALLOW THE TROF OFF THE FL COAST
TO SHIFT WWD. THE 06Z DGEX AND MOST GFS RUNS OVR THE PAST 2 DAYS
WERE FARTHER W WITH THE H5 LOW THAN THE 00Z GFS ON TUE AND WED.
ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO FAVOR THE 00Z GFS ALOFT...AT
THE SFC IT IS CLOSEST TO THE 06Z DGEX IN SHOWING MORE OF A CYC IN
THE GULF OF MEX RATHER THAN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERING
THE 00Z RUN SUSPECT...BELIEVE THE MORE DIGGY/SWRN SOLN WILL WORK
OUT SINCE THE MDLS CAN BE TOO WEAK W/UPR SYS AT THIS TIME FRAME.
DECIDED TO REINTRODUCE THE LOW IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
DISSIPATE THE TAIL END OF THE STNRY FRONT TO ITS WEST. DO NOT RUN
THE CYC TWDS THE FL PANHANDLE AS THE DGEX SUGGESTS...INSTEAD DRIFT
IT NWWD WHICH FITS BETTER W/THE STEERING EXPECTED AT THAT TIME
FRAME. THE 12Z GFS REAFFIRMS ITS EARLIER RUNS...SO NO CHANGES WERE
MADE HERE.

ROTH/KIMBERLAIN/CLARK
$$

[x-y-no]

hybridstorm:

"End of the period", yes ... i.e. 6 to 7 days.

It appears that the potential homebrew development several of the globals hint at derives from a piece of the trough cutting off amd moving WSW. The Euro and the NOGAPS develop this east of Florida on days 6 and 7, the GFS takes it into the Gulf as a weak low.

Personally, I'm a heck of a lot more concerned about 92L at this point.

[scostorms]

Hence i'm no meteorologist... are we talking about a second Katrina?

[cajungal]

Could you imagine if another one threatnes the same area Katrina hit? I don't even want to think about it. The damage just to our east is horrible.

[hicksta]

Could you imagine if another one threatnes the same area Katrina hit? I don't even want to think about it. The damage just to our east is horrible.

Thatd be horrible

[jimvb]

Latest NOGAPS shows something developing off Jacksonville and heading north to the Carolinas. GFS does not show this at all; it shows the system falling apart. GFS does show a storm off Africa (92L?) becoming a major hurricane, which swings back to sea, then all of a sudden makes a left turn and hits Maine, severely weakened at this point, probably by the cold water there.

I am getting concerned that future runs may show 92L going further west.

[gatorcane]

Over 30 knots vertical shear in that area, and over 40 knots west of there.

That ought to effectively suppress any development.

Despite this shear it is holding together well and the convection is persisting, if not increasing. When this shear abates some, I expect development here.

[SouthFloridawx]

The Shear is Decreasing.

[SouthFloridawx]