Tropical Storm Maria,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Thunder44 · #101 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 7:49 pm

They still have "TD invest" on the 0z models, they may not ugrade this at 11pm. They didn't even increase the initial winds.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #102 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:05 pm

This system looks 10 time better then Lee.

#103 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:16 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #104 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:17 pm

By that it is a tropical storm. 40 knot wind flags.

Hyperstorm · #105 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:41 pm

Oops...

I guess there are just too many systems out there worth monitoring that my head is not interpreting them right.

:lol:

Thanks for letting me know.

#106 Postby **cjrciadt** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:42 pm

At this rate I cant keep Lee, 91, and 92 straight. Soon to be 93 will makes things even worse. :wall:

#107 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:43 pm

Hyperstorm wrote:Oops...

I guess there are just too many systems out there worth monitoring that my head is not interpreting them right.

Thanks for letting me know.

No problem.

When you post there I will deleite the post here.

#108 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:16 pm

Scorpion · #109 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:18 pm

Whoa there. This needs to be TD 14 at 11.

Foladar · #110 Postby **Foladar** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:52 pm

Lee is a TD, this is still nothing yet according to NHC.

#111 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 7:59 am

01/1145 UTC 18.8N 45.5W T2.5/2.5 91 -- Atlantic Ocean

Well those T numbers are of tropical storm status but I prefer to wait for the models.

#112 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 8:12 am

it seems to be bending more WNW...what kind of projected path do we see with this? I'm thinking less and less that this will be a fish with the Atlantic ridge building to the north.

BensonTCwatcher · #113 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 8:29 am

Looks like it's a battle between the UKMET and the GFDL to me. UKMET takes into a weakness by teh ULL associated with Lee, and the GFDL kicks it more W. The thing I don't agree with is if it takes the GFDL path in teh near term, then it looks like the ridge probably will be stronger/building in.

Just a quick SWAG

#114 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 8:35 am

Not sure how updated this is. GFDL takes it North into the weakness not West.

BensonTCwatcher · #115 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 8:41 am

Yes it does after 24 hours or so.....notice the criss cross? Also compare the initializations to the features here

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

krysof · #116 Postby **krysof** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 8:43 am

Models are taking it NW or N. If the high builds, it would not go north but NW throughout its lifetime. Once a storm passes 60* west then it's a potential threat the way I see it.

BensonTCwatcher · #117 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 8:49 am

Well I see that we are no longer discussing an INVEST. TD 14 now

Well either way I'll be tuned in for this one especially in 12-16 hours based on present speed. If the models start trending like the current run, then well shall be in the words of Robert Johnson, "Down at the Crossroads" with respect to the ridge.

#118 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 8:51 am

what current run do you speak of? Graphics?

#119 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:00 am

Fishland.

krysof · #120 Postby **krysof** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:13 am

Looks good, but those models are very inaccurate. Does the gfdl, the ukmet, or gfs show the same thing, including NOGAPS.

Tropical Storm Maria,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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