TY Talim (13W) - WPAC

[senorpepr]

ZCZC 271
WTPQ21 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 12.6N 144.0E POOR
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 270300UTC 13.6N 141.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT =
NNNN


JTWC has yet to get with the program and upgrade 95W to a depression. The official RSMC, JMA, has upgraded the system to a depression...

[senorpepr]

JTWC finally got with the program...

941
WTPQ21 RJTD 261500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261500UTC 13.2N 143.2E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 271500UTC 17.3N 143.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT =



SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WARNING NR 002
WTPN31 PGTW 261500
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 12.7N 142.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 142.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.5N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.2N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.9N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.5N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.4N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 141.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[cjrciadt]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
Look at the size compared to Katrina, could they find Lee on first Recon???

[senorpepr]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
Look at the size compared to Katrina, could they find Lee on first Recon???

I'm sorry... I believe the thread you are looking for is http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=70907 which refers to Invest 97 in the Atlantic. This thread regards Tropical Depression 13 in the Western Pacific Ocean.

[P.K.]

Interesting, I hadn't realised they did advisories for TDs as well. (I get them straight from the JMA page usually rather than the link on your excellent tropical update page)

998hPa, 30kt at 6pm GMT.

[P.K.]

TS Talim at 45kts (990hPa) at 6pm GMT. Track

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0513 TALIM (0513)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 17.5N 139.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 281800UTC 20.2N 136.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
48HF 291800UTC 22.7N 131.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 301800UTC 24.4N 126.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT

[tim_in_ga]

Making a run straight for Taiwan. Just what they do not need.

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V4e/typhoon/news/AllTyph_Eng.jpg

[P.K.]

Upgraded to a typhoon.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280900UTC 19.5N 136.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 290900UTC 21.8N 132.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
45HF 300600UTC 22.8N 129.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
69HF 310600UTC 24.2N 124.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT

[senorpepr]

ZCZC 707
WTPQ21 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 20.9N 131.8E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 260NM
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 22.4N 127.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 311200UTC 23.8N 122.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
72HF 011200UTC 25.5N 118.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT =
NNNN


WTPN32 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/290751ZAUG2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 133.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 133.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.7N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 22.2N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.8N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.7N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.8N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.4N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.5N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 132.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTHEAST OF
OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z,
300300Z AND 300900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN

[P.K.]

90kts increasing to 100kts.

Edit - lol, posted the JMA advisory at the same time.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Despite Katrina being all over the place and wrecking havoc over Louisana and Mississippi, I thought I'd keep you on track about Typhoon 13W, Talim.



As you can see, Talim is still on the same track it was predicted to take in the last few updates. However, itensification estimations have been upgraded for the next 36 hours to 135 knots. And it's obvious to see why:



Outflow is good but it will even improve in the next 24 to 36 hours. And shear is low.

Taiwan is going be in contact with a very destructive tropical system yet again, one and a half month after Haitang, whose track and strength was almost identical.

Good news for Taiwan is that Tropical Storm 14 W (Nabi) is preditcted to have more of a NW track, for Japan on the other hand ... Well more to 14W in its thread.

[P.K.]

Up to 95kts now, 90kts when approaching Taiwan.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 22.0N 127.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 311200UTC 23.9N 122.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 011200UTC 26.2N 119.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
72HF 021200UTC 28.2N 115.8E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[senorpepr]

865
WTPQ21 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 22.7N 125.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 280NM
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 25.1N 120.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
48HF 020000UTC 27.8N 117.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
72HF 030000UTC 29.9N 115.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


WDPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 301200Z AUG TO 021200Z SEP 2005.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTH OF
OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. TY 13W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED ZONALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48,
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION RESULTING IN LANDFALL
ON TAIWAN AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 36. A SECOND LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
CHINESE COASTLINE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AT OR AROUND TAU 60. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, EGRR, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM,
JTYM, TCLAPS, MM5 AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH
TAU 72. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
C. TY 13W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINMENT
AT THE VERY LEAST AND SOME POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION. SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ONLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN PAST TAU 36. DESPITE
REEMERGING OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF
MOIST AIR INFLOW DUE TO PROXIMITY WITH CHINA WILL PREVENT STRENGTHENING
PRIOR TO ITS SECOND LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN BY
TAU 60 AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN EASTERN CHINA AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 300942Z QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
NNNN


SUBJ: TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 019
WTPN32 PGTW 302100
1. TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 22.3N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.1N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 23.9N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.9N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.2N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.4N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 125.7E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 44 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14W (NABI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[HurricaneBill]

And the band played on.........

[P.K.]

The eye looks rather large looking at the sat images. I'd estimate 100km across assuming the eye is 1 degree across. Even using Google Earth I get about 70km across.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310900UTC 23.5N 123.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 280NM
FORECAST
24HF 010900UTC 25.7N 119.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
45HF 020600UTC 28.0N 116.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
69HF 030600UTC 30.0N 115.0E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[P.K.]

The centre of Talim has crossed Taiwan and was listed at 80kts at 9pm GMT.

WTPQ21 RJTD 312100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0513 TALIM (0513)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 312100UTC 23.6N 120.9E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 140NM
30KT 280NM
FORECAST
24HF 012100UTC 27.1N 116.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
45HF 021800UTC 28.4N 115.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[apocalypt-flyer]

They can thank god that it weakened significantly before landfall. JTWC thought it would have 100kts - 110kts at landfall not too long ago ..

Still, the East of Taiwan will be getting an awful lot of rain ...

[P.K.]

I'm not sure it did weaken much to be honest. The 9pm GMT postion is over the centre of Taiwan and it is only listed at 10kts less than 12 hours before.

[tim_in_ga]

I was just watching the Taiwan news on ETTV and it looked pretty bad. Flooding everywhere. I didn't see anything from the east coast towns where they took a direct hit. We'll probably know more on tomorrow's news.

[apocalypt-flyer]

You're right P.K.

God, I talked some rubbish there in my previous post. Seems to have hit Taiwan as a Cat 3 Tyhoon with ~ 100kts, was jumping on the 9pm estimate.

Just a shame that the Mountains couldn't disorganize the whole System a bit more. Seems like it could make a second landfall as a Typhoon.