Storms like Katrina a yearly thing?

[MKT2005]

With global warming do you think we could see a Katrina type storm, huge storm with strong winds striking the U.S on nearly a yearly basis. I think it is a possibility.

[CFL]

My sister, just an amateur weather watcher like me, thinks it's possible. Seems like she said she read an article about this possibility. Let's hope that this isn't the case.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No she is very rare. To have a large hurricane like Mitch above 25 north is about as rare as Camille. She was 175 mph winds/902 millibars. I would say once every 20 years for her power. In 50 years for her area she done it in.

[baitism]

With global warming do you think we could see a Katrina type storm, huge storm with strong winds striking the U.S on nearly a yearly basis. I think it is a possibility.

I dont think global warming has anything to do with it. It has to do with the coasts being more populated making these more devestating. Im sure in the 1800's and early 1900's there were hurricanes just as big (Gaveston 1900, Labor Day Cane) its just they mainly hit unpopulated areas so it wasnt a big event.

[NorthGaWeather]

With global warming do you think we could see a Katrina type storm, huge storm with strong winds striking the U.S on nearly a yearly basis. I think it is a possibility.

Hahaha, ok RKF Jr.

[linkerweather]

Global warming has nothing to do with it. See Dr. Gray's explanation from August update. Keep in mind that if the planet's warming anything to do with frequency of hurricanes or intensity then those numbers would be up globally and they are in fact down since 1995.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... 5/aug2005/


Additionally, common sense leads us to if the planet were warming significantly as some surmise, then the melting ice caps would cool the oceans; and we tropical weather afficionados know what that would do.

[senorpepr]

Global warming has nothing to do with it. See Dr. Gray's explanation from August update. Keep in mind that if the planet's warming anything to do with frequency of hurricanes or intensity then those numbers would be up globally and they are in fact down since 1995.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... 5/aug2005/


Additionally, common sense leads us to if the planet were warming significantly as some surmise, then the melting ice caps would cool the oceans; and we tropical weather afficionados know what that would do.

Right... and to piggyback on those last comments, in fact, the global tropical cyclone activity has been relatively lower than normal over the past decade or so.

[apocalypt-flyer]

I only semi-agree with you there baitism. I believe Global warning might have some sort of an effect but it's not the main reason.

And no to the original question, for a cane or a disaster like Katrina the are too many components which have to come together. Thus really reaaly grave Catastrohpies like that one don't occur every year, more like every five years.

I just hope I don't have to eat my words in a year's or even a month's time.

[inotherwords]

With global warming do you think we could see a Katrina type storm, huge storm with strong winds striking the U.S on nearly a yearly basis. I think it is a possibility.

I dont think global warming has anything to do with it. It has to do with the coasts being more populated making these more devestating. Im sure in the 1800's and early 1900's there were hurricanes just as big (Gaveston 1900, Labor Day Cane) its just they mainly hit unpopulated areas so it wasnt a big event.

Greater population on the coasts is part of the problem for hurricanes that actually hit the coasts, but that's not the reason for the frequency. We are in the middle of an activity cycle. If you take a look at this website and look at each year in the 1970s, for instance, you'll see how few hurricanes in those years made US landfall. Then go back to the 1920s and you'll see a lot more activity like we have now. These are just a few examples but it illustrates the cyclical nature of the storms. Make sure to click on "US Landfalling Hurricanes" radio button to see, and select the year you want to look at.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/history.asp

[Scorpion]

Well, big Cat 5's could be a yearly thing. We have had 3 super hurricanes 3 years in a row. And this year, we had 2 130 kt + hurricanes in July.

[StormsAhead]

Category 5 hurricanes like Katrina have occurred before...it's not nearly a first. There was Isabel in 2003, and Ivan last year. Even the intensity of Katrina at landfall is not a record, there was Camille and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, and Andrew's wind. The unusual thing about Katrina is that it hit in a spot where there was potential for a catastrophe (not the only one, if I may add).

As far as "global" warming, no I don't think that's doing much at all. What could be helping is Atlantic warming. If you notice, the entire Pacific Ocean is cooler than average this year, and has been having far less activity than average. Even in the West Pacific, with the amount of TC potential the highest in the world, the typhoons this year are having a remarkably hard time coming together. I've truly never seen anything like it; depressions are slow to develop, storms are slow to strengthen, and typhoons are consistently weaker than forecast. At times, we have even kept in pace with the WPAC...considering they average around 30 storms per year, and several supertyphoons, that is amazing.

I have seen several studies done on hurricanes in the Atlantic, and how they have been strengthening over the years. This is, of course, blamed on "global" warming more often than not. But you can't look at one ocean's change, which is far from the biggest on the planet, and apply it to the world. Maybe global warming is happening, maybe it's because of us. It depends on who you ask. But the changes that occur globally are so tiny that we would not have noticed, since our hurricane data has only been reliable for 40 years or so. It is well-known that we are in a cycle of Atlantic warming...this is a cycle that we can notice because it occurs much faster.

So yes, more strong hurricanes in the future. But this will be because of the decadal cycles in ocean temperatures, not global warming. Eventually we will be back in a low-activity period like what we saw in the 70's and 80's, but before then we have to get used to the possibility of a Katrina for another major city.

[gatorcane]

NO

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well during active cycles we will see stuff similar to what we had in
1940s...but


Based on my theoretical hydrocarbonic theory analysis, I will state that yes global warming will exacerbate storm intensities.

So lots of storms, just stronger.

Yes IMO a yearly thing is possible, possibly several yearly big ones
like the 4 last year.

This is why I might flee the coast and move to a more elevated part
of the Tampa Bay Area. IMO this season is far from over....it's not
even September yet....

[arcticfire]

Well keep in mind most people will trivialize the effects of global warming untill it basicly beats them over the head. Scientists are just now starting to do studies on the effects of global warming on things like hurricans and other severe weather effects. Don't be lulled into thinking just because scientists are not talking about it isn't happening. They are people to and motivated by lots of factors not the least of which is political and what is "trendy". Now that global warming is an accepted reality expect to see studies on this very subject in the comming years.

I think the best way to answer the question is no one knows yet. People will keep regurgitating "it's a cycle" untill it becomes painfully obvious it's not a cycle. Think about the realities of carrying this banner:

1. It gives you time to do real studies on the effects before poeple really start questioning.

2. It gives people peace of mind. If you can tell them 5,10 years from now it will all go back to "normal" they feel reasured.

3. The science community and scientists(I include meterologists in here) in general are people , and don't like having to say "I don't know" , so they tell you what they got taught back in collage , which is that it's all part of a big 40 year cycle.

4. Lastly people don't like change , even if it's merly changing or opening up to the idea of something new. Global warming and the acceptence of it is new and you get the standard resistence to change even from the pro's.


My opinon:

To accept that in one hand global warming is happening , and then on the other hand say it has no real bering on hurricains is sticking your head in the sand. If at their core hurricains are heat/energy/moistier transport to northern latitiudes , and global warming adds more of that of course hurricains will be effected.

Global warming effects are felt "top down". Which is to say we up here in the arctic regions have been feeling dramatic effects for years (Im in alaska) it takes longer for warming effects to start to show in more stable climates like the equator (I'm speaking of temperature stability here). So I think the tropics are merly starting to show effects now like the arctic regions have been for a good 10 years now.

What effects it has on hurricains in paticular is really not known as very few studies have been done on it. It will come to light in the comming years when people stop mindlessly beating their heads against the "cycle" wall.

So in summery , I belive global warming is starting to influince tropical weather in a minor way and it's entirly likly that storms given their purpose will only increase , first in stength and then down the road in frequincy if the latter is not already occuring with regularity. Just remember , they can barly tell you where a hurricain will be 3 days from now , don't put much stock in thier knowledge about the future macro environment surrounding these storms.

[inotherwords]

From Dr. Gray's 2005 forecast:

8 The 1995-2004 Upswing in Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming

Many individuals have queried whether the unprecedented landfall of four destructive hurricanes in a seven-week period during August-September 2004 is related in any way to human-induced climate changes. There is no evidence that this is the case. If global warming were the cause of the increase in United States hurricane landfalls in 2004 and the overall increase in Atlantic basin major hurricane activity of the past ten years (1995-2004), one would expect to see an increase in tropical cyclone activity in the other storm basins as well (ie., West Pacific, East Pacific, Indian Ocean, etc.). This has not occurred. When tropical cyclones worldwide are summed, there has actually been a slight decrease since 1995. In addition, it has been well-documented that the measured global warming during the 25-year period of 1970-1994 was accompanied by a downturn in Atlantic basin hurricane activity over what was experienced during the 1930s through the 1960s.


We attribute the heightened Atlantic major hurricane activity between 1995-2004 to be a consequence of the multidecadal fluctuations in the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) as we have been discussing in our Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts for several years. Major hurricane activity in the Atlantic has been shown to undergo marked multidecadal fluctuations that are directly related to North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies. When the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation is running strong, the central Atlantic equatorial trough (ITCZ) becomes stronger. The stronger the Atlantic equatorial trough becomes, the more favorable are conditions for the development of major hurricanes in the central Atlantic. Since 1995, the THC has been flowing more strongly, and there has been a concomitant increase in major hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... 5/aug2005/

[arcticfire]

From Dr. Gray's 2005 forecast:

8 The 1995-2004 Upswing in Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming

Many individuals have queried whether the unprecedented landfall of four destructive hurricanes in a seven-week period during August-September 2004 is related in any way to human-induced climate changes. There is no evidence that this is the case. If global warming were the cause of the increase in United States hurricane landfalls in 2004 and the overall increase in Atlantic basin major hurricane activity of the past ten years (1995-2004), one would expect to see an increase in tropical cyclone activity in the other storm basins as well (ie., West Pacific, East Pacific, Indian Ocean, etc.). This has not occurred. When tropical cyclones worldwide are summed, there has actually been a slight decrease since 1995. In addition, it has been well-documented that the measured global warming during the 25-year period of 1970-1994 was accompanied by a downturn in Atlantic basin hurricane activity over what was experienced during the 1930s through the 1960s.


We attribute the heightened Atlantic major hurricane activity between 1995-2004 to be a consequence of the multidecadal fluctuations in the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) as we have been discussing in our Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts for several years. Major hurricane activity in the Atlantic has been shown to undergo marked multidecadal fluctuations that are directly related to North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies. When the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation is running strong, the central Atlantic equatorial trough (ITCZ) becomes stronger. The stronger the Atlantic equatorial trough becomes, the more favorable are conditions for the development of major hurricanes in the central Atlantic. Since 1995, the THC has been flowing more strongly, and there has been a concomitant increase in major hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... 5/aug2005/

Thats basicly miss-information. One small point also didn't I hear that japan was hit with a record like 10 storms last year? In any case saying that just because the pacific basin has not increased as well that means global warming is having no effect is conviently ignoring the full reality.

First and foremost the pacific is a different ocean then the atlantic. It is MUCH larger and also does not have the same temperature current effects going on undneith it. There is no reason to assume that an increase in atlantic storms as a reaction to global warming would be mirrored by a much larger and more stable body of water that does not have the destabalizing effective of the atlantic current.

This whole answer quoted here by this person should be considered someone in NOLA going "it will miss , they have for the past 40 years".

[NorthGaWeather]

From Dr. Gray's 2005 forecast:

8 The 1995-2004 Upswing in Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming

Many individuals have queried whether the unprecedented landfall of four destructive hurricanes in a seven-week period during August-September 2004 is related in any way to human-induced climate changes. There is no evidence that this is the case. If global warming were the cause of the increase in United States hurricane landfalls in 2004 and the overall increase in Atlantic basin major hurricane activity of the past ten years (1995-2004), one would expect to see an increase in tropical cyclone activity in the other storm basins as well (ie., West Pacific, East Pacific, Indian Ocean, etc.). This has not occurred. When tropical cyclones worldwide are summed, there has actually been a slight decrease since 1995. In addition, it has been well-documented that the measured global warming during the 25-year period of 1970-1994 was accompanied by a downturn in Atlantic basin hurricane activity over what was experienced during the 1930s through the 1960s.


We attribute the heightened Atlantic major hurricane activity between 1995-2004 to be a consequence of the multidecadal fluctuations in the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) as we have been discussing in our Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts for several years. Major hurricane activity in the Atlantic has been shown to undergo marked multidecadal fluctuations that are directly related to North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies. When the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation is running strong, the central Atlantic equatorial trough (ITCZ) becomes stronger. The stronger the Atlantic equatorial trough becomes, the more favorable are conditions for the development of major hurricanes in the central Atlantic. Since 1995, the THC has been flowing more strongly, and there has been a concomitant increase in major hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... 5/aug2005/

Thats basicly miss-information. One small point also didn't I hear that japan was hit with a record like 10 storms last year? In any case saying that just because the pacific basin has not increased as well that means global warming is having no effect is conviently ignoring the full reality.

First and foremost the pacific is a different ocean then the atlantic. It is MUCH larger and also does not have the same temperature current effects going on undneith it. There is no reason to assume that an increase in atlantic storms as a reaction to global warming would be mirrored by a much larger and more stable body of water that does not have the destabalizing effective of the atlantic current.

This whole answer quoted here by this person should be considered someone in NOLA going "it will miss , they have for the past 40 years".

I think they call it willful ignorance, and thats what you are showing. Dr Gray has done just a bit more research than you. This post really doesn't deserve a response.

[arcticfire]

From Dr. Gray's 2005 forecast:

8 The 1995-2004 Upswing in Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming

Many individuals have queried whether the unprecedented landfall of four destructive hurricanes in a seven-week period during August-September 2004 is related in any way to human-induced climate changes. There is no evidence that this is the case. If global warming were the cause of the increase in United States hurricane landfalls in 2004 and the overall increase in Atlantic basin major hurricane activity of the past ten years (1995-2004), one would expect to see an increase in tropical cyclone activity in the other storm basins as well (ie., West Pacific, East Pacific, Indian Ocean, etc.). This has not occurred. When tropical cyclones worldwide are summed, there has actually been a slight decrease since 1995. In addition, it has been well-documented that the measured global warming during the 25-year period of 1970-1994 was accompanied by a downturn in Atlantic basin hurricane activity over what was experienced during the 1930s through the 1960s.


We attribute the heightened Atlantic major hurricane activity between 1995-2004 to be a consequence of the multidecadal fluctuations in the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) as we have been discussing in our Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts for several years. Major hurricane activity in the Atlantic has been shown to undergo marked multidecadal fluctuations that are directly related to North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies. When the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation is running strong, the central Atlantic equatorial trough (ITCZ) becomes stronger. The stronger the Atlantic equatorial trough becomes, the more favorable are conditions for the development of major hurricanes in the central Atlantic. Since 1995, the THC has been flowing more strongly, and there has been a concomitant increase in major hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... 5/aug2005/

Thats basicly miss-information. One small point also didn't I hear that japan was hit with a record like 10 storms last year? In any case saying that just because the pacific basin has not increased as well that means global warming is having no effect is conviently ignoring the full reality.

First and foremost the pacific is a different ocean then the atlantic. It is MUCH larger and also does not have the same temperature current effects going on undneith it. There is no reason to assume that an increase in atlantic storms as a reaction to global warming would be mirrored by a much larger and more stable body of water that does not have the destabalizing effective of the atlantic current.

This whole answer quoted here by this person should be considered someone in NOLA going "it will miss , they have for the past 40 years".

I think they call it willful ignorance, and thats what you are showing. Dr Gray has done just a bit more research than you. This post really doesn't deserve a response.

Really ? by all means show me his studies on global warming impact on hurrican activity. I'm sure they are a matter of public record right ? Otherwise he has done no research on it and is just spouting opinon. Which makes it no more valid then my opinion.

Edit- I'll add also before you play the "pro" card , just because someone is a mechanic and good at fixing my car does not mean I want him in charge of the repair of the 747 engine I'm about to fly on. If he has done direct studies on this by all means link them , otherwise again it's just his opinon.

Edit again to add this quote from the Grey's product here:

We believe that the current active period is quite similar to the 1930s, where we had many active hurricane seasons, even though other features typically associated with active seasons in the 1950s and 1960s were not present. The 1930s were also a period of strong global warming similar to the global warming of the last decade. From the limited data available during the 1930s and 1940s, we deduce that the Atlantic was quite warm, similar to conditions that we are presently experiencing. However, other features, such as strong easterly anomalies at upper levels in the tropical Atlantic which were present in the 1950s and 1960s, do not appear to have been present in the earlier period of the 1930s. We have seen a slight increase in tropical Atlantic easterly anomalies since 1995 but have yet to see the easterlies that were present in the earlier decades of the 1950s and 1960s. In addition, the westerlies in the Southern Hemisphere have not yet weakened, even though, a weaker midlatitude circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is typically associated with active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

I include the full paragraph here for completness , the bold is mine. [/quote]

[NorthGaWeather]

First of all the pro mets, do know more about this than you and me, even though you try to argue that fact. I'm not your maid, look up the articles yourself, surely you have the ability to do a simple yahoo search. Dr. Gray's opinion, since he is skilled in this area you know has a degree, has done research, is much more valuable than yours. You have yet to show any evidence that proves Dr. Gray wrong and the other mets wrong. Instead you provide your opinion and act like its common fact. Even people that are firmly on the global warming bandwagon admit that global warming has nothing to do with it. Thanks but try again. Swing and a miss by arcticfire.

There has been plenty of research done that proves hurricane frequency is a cycle. In the 30s/40s the Atlantic Basin was a degree above average, during the 60s/70s/80s it was below average by a degree. Its a degree above average during this period. This was all on a hurricane documentary on the science channel this past week. They interviewed several NOAA scientist on this subject and they all said global warming has nothing to do with it, its a cycle. The hurricanes have always been there, they have always been strong. Go get some new stories.

[arcticfire]

First of all the pro mets, do know more about this than you and me, even though you try to argue that fact. I'm not your maid, look up the articles yourself, surely you have the ability to do a simple yahoo search. Dr. Gray's opinion, since he is skilled in this area you know has a degree, has done research, is much more valuable than yours. You have yet to show any evidence that proves Dr. Gray wrong and the other mets wrong. Instead you provide your opinion and act like its common fact. Even people that are firmly on the global warming bandwagon admit that global warming has nothing to do with it. Thanks but try again. Swing and a miss by arcticfire.

There has been plenty of research done that proves hurricane frequency is a cycle. In the 30s/40s the Atlantic Basin was a degree above average, during the 60s/70s/80s it was below average by a degree. Its a degree above average during this period. This was all on a hurricane documentary on the science channel this past week. They interviewed several NOAA scientist on this subject and they all said global warming has nothing to do with it, its a cycle. The hurricanes have always been there, they have always been strong. Go get some new stories.

I don't really need to convince you , I'm not even out to convince you , point in fact my argument was that it is not known the effects of global warming on hurricains. I pointed out that my opinion was that it has an effect , I distinctly seperated the two. However you have decided to read into it because I said something you didn't want to hear. Failing to have any real counter argument to the points I bring up you just tilt your nose and call me uniformed. Thats fine to your entilted to your opinon. We'll just have to agree to disagree here. Since I aparently can't resist a debate:

As to the pro mets. It's fine to put them on a pedistal , the do great work and are very knowledgible. They are also the first people that will tell you I'm sure they do not know many of the factors that go into a hurricain. If they knew all the angles forecasting them wouldn't be such a chore. My point was simply that real research on the effects of global warming linkage to hurricains is only now being performed. Thus one should keep an open mind and not just mindlessly tout 50 year old science.

As to cycles. I'll make an annalogy here. If we are playing poker and I get delt poket Aces one hand , poket 2's the next , and poket Aces the 3rd. Does this now mean I can expect poket 2's on the 4th ? With all the other cobinations of cards that could come you would not make any money betting those odds.

In any case as that relates to my opinon on cycles in case it gets missed. We have what amounts to a snapshot of world atmoshpher during what geologists will be quick to site as an non typical "calm" period. If you think you can lay claim on the entire global weather for decades to come based on only 100 years of data , some of which is very questionable (early 1900's before radar / satalite / etc) , your making a typical mistake in my opinon.

Even Gray's product distinctly says , because he is obvisously a smart fella , that the whole forecast is based on the assumption that past data will give data to support future. Which means , it works on the assumption that history will repeat itself. If it does not and the idea of cycles was wrong he is covered. Smart man. It was I'll admit unfair to use the term "miss-information" when I responded I should have said it was his opinion.

In any case my whole point is we don't know and keep an open mind about whats to come. Don't lock yourself in a box and assume global warming does not affect these storms , wait for the real science to come in the years ahead. If you wish to stick with whats scientificly trendy , thats fine the world was flat once too.