El nino

[ChaserUK]

is there an El Nino? A chap on Fox reckons there is but I thought there was a weak spring event and that was it?

[Duffy]

from what i've read recently, models say no El Nino through April of 06

[MKT2005]

is there an El Nino? A chap on Fox reckons there is but I thought there was a weak spring event and that was it?

No, there is no El Nino. Doubt Katrina would have formed if this was an El Nino year. El Nino makes it difficult for major hurricanes to form in the atlantic basin.

[P.K.]

Despite a drop in the SOI and Trade Wind strength, together with some warming along the equatorial Pacific, the situation across the Pacific Basin remains neutral overall. Model guidance and historical precendent suggest that neutral conditions will continue for the remainder of the year.

The eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean has warmed by about 0.5°C during August but still remains well below the El Niño threshold. Only slight warming has occurred in the central to western Pacific. However, with subsurface cooling spreading into the central and eastern Pacific and cloud patterns remaining near-normal, the falling SOI and weakened Trade Winds are likely to be only temporary fluctuations.

Most international models, including the POAMA climate model run at the Bureau of Meteorology, clearly favour neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the remainder of 2005.

Full article here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/