We dont need more of this

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cycloneye
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We dont need more of this

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:03 pm

Image

Oh my can we afford another hurricane after what we haved seen? Well here is the 12z GFS which shows a cane moving very close to the islands.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:05 pm

Holy.......... Heads up Cycloneye, this might affect you hopefully its dead wrong.
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#3 Postby MBismyPlayground » Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:05 pm

OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Now this is a UGLY sight.
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#4 Postby Stephanie » Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:06 pm

Not that I want that thing in my backyard, but I do pray that it leaves the Gulf states alone!
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#5 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:11 pm

:Hug:
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#6 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:14 pm

I think almost everyone may get their piece of the action this year, one way or another.
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:15 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

12z Loop.Well the good news about this is that it wont go to GOM as loop shows.
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#8 Postby x-y-no » Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:29 pm

Wow ... the 12Z run sure does jump on that system. Earlier runs had a 1008mb low at that timepoint.

Good news is that it has it being picked up by a pretty strong trough. God knows if the position or timing (or intensity) are even close to right, though. Something to monitor over subsequent runs, though.
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:35 pm

Jan now let's see how the 00z run tonight shows this and as you said the timing and intensity changes or not.
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2005 1:02 pm

--------

12UTC 31.08.2005 8.7N 20.4W WEAK

00UTC 01.09.2005 11.0N 23.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.09.2005 9.7N 26.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2005 10.2N 29.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2005 10.6N 32.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2005 11.7N 33.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.09.2005 11.1N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.09.2005 11.5N 37.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.09.2005 12.3N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.09.2005 12.4N 42.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.09.2005 13.0N 44.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

GFS is not alone.12z UKMET joins.
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#11 Postby Marilyn » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

12z Loop.Well the good news about this is that it wont go to GOM as loop shows.
Cycloneye, I cannot get the loop to work for me. My Step son has been downloading stuff and it has slowed my system up. Anyway If it doesn't show it going to the GOM where is it showing it is going to ? Thks , Marilyn
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#12 Postby wxwatcher91 » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:22 pm

Patrick99 wrote:I think almost everyone may get their piece of the action this year, one way or another.


naw New England... however much they are "due" will see nuttin... like usual...
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:25 pm

That system recurves before reaching the US East Coast.
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#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:35 pm

Patrick99 wrote:I think almost everyone may get their piece of the action this year, one way or another.


Well the NE Caribbean has not seen any strong systems so far only some tropical waves.
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#15 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:45 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Patrick99 wrote:I think almost everyone may get their piece of the action this year, one way or another.


Well the NE Caribbean has not seen any strong systems so far only some tropical waves.


Yeah - the NE Caribbean has been strangely quiet this year.
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#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:52 pm

Patrick that may be because the Bermuda High has not been strong so far allowing those systems to recurve before reaching the islands.Will that change in September and the Bermuda High builds strong making the systems move closer to the islands?
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#17 Postby msbee » Tue Aug 30, 2005 3:25 pm

Lus, is that 91L?
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#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2005 7:36 pm

msbee wrote:Lus, is that 91L?


No it's another wave that will emerge West Africa tomorrow.
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#19 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 30, 2005 7:52 pm

It's the GFS long-range forecast over-forecasting tropical cyclones as usual. I really wouldn't worry about it.
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#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2005 7:57 pm

Thunder44 wrote:It's the GFS long-range forecast over-forecasting tropical cyclones as usual. I really wouldn't worry about it.


It's not GFS only.the UKMET also shows it.



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 8.7N 20.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 31.08.2005 8.7N 20.4W WEAK

00UTC 01.09.2005 11.0N 23.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.09.2005 9.7N 26.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2005 10.2N 29.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2005 10.6N 32.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2005 11.7N 33.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.09.2005 11.1N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.09.2005 11.5N 37.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.09.2005 12.3N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.09.2005 12.4N 42.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.09.2005 13.0N 44.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


And yet another model NOGAPS shows it.

Image

When more than one model show something you have to pay attention to the trends of those models in next runs.
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