Tropical Storm Maria,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#61 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 10:37 am

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 1550 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

11:30 AM TWO.

Steve H. · #62 Postby **Steve H.** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 10:59 am

Interesting that NRL has 91L as NONAME now???? Models have trended west, but also show something near the Bahamas in a few days???

#63 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 11:02 am

Steve H. wrote:Interesting that NRL has 91L as NONAME now???? Models have trended west, but also show something near the Bahamas in a few days???

About NRL no depression has been classified here so they jumped the gun very early however the backup site of them still has it as 91L.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

.About the models yes a trend more west is noted.

#64 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 11:04 am

cycloneye wrote:
Steve H. wrote:Interesting that NRL has 91L as NONAME now???? Models have trended west, but also show something near the Bahamas in a few days???

About NRL no depression has been classified here so they jumped the gun very early however the backup site of them still has it as 91L.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

.About the models yes a trend more west is noted.

It would be jumping the gun to say that it is 14L NONAME. It is correct to call it and invest 91L.

Steve H. · #65 Postby **Steve H.** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 11:25 am

That's weird 'cause they have thirteenL on that site.

#66 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 11:44 am

It is trying but it has not been sufficient to be a TD yet.FLoater is focused on 91L now.There is some dry air to it's west and northwest that may try to slow development.

millibar · #67 Postby **millibar** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:42 pm

Concerning the CV season (Katrina nonwithstanding!), where is the Bermuda-Azores high??? It looks more like the Bermuda "Low" so far this season. I've never seen the B-A High look so weak!!!

Chuck

#68 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 1:14 pm

A BROAD 1008 MB ATLC TROPICAL SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
12N37W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. THIS LOW HAS NOT BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT MAY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT...240 NM NW QUADRANT
OF THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF 17N34W AND 30 NM RADIUS OF 16.5N31W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM
OVER S SEMICIRCLE.

2 PM Discussion.

#69 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 1:53 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050830 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050830 1800 050831 0600 050831 1800 050901 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 37.6W 14.1N 39.9W 16.1N 42.1W 17.8N 44.4W
BAMM 12.3N 37.6W 14.0N 40.0W 15.8N 42.4W 17.5N 44.4W
A98E 12.3N 37.6W 13.9N 40.1W 15.2N 42.6W 16.7N 44.6W
LBAR 12.3N 37.6W 13.9N 40.1W 15.6N 42.4W 16.8N 44.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050901 1800 050902 1800 050903 1800 050904 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.1N 46.6W 21.2N 50.5W 23.1N 53.6W 25.0N 56.4W
BAMM 18.8N 46.2W 21.5N 49.8W 24.4N 53.1W 27.2N 56.3W
A98E 18.4N 46.1W 21.0N 49.6W 23.5N 52.6W 26.7N 55.4W
LBAR 17.5N 47.3W 19.3N 51.8W 22.5N 55.3W 26.5N 57.1W
SHIP 57KTS 71KTS 80KTS 86KTS
DSHP 57KTS 71KTS 80KTS 86KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 37.6W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 35.7W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 32.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z Models.

nequad · #70 Postby **nequad** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:44 pm

12 UTC UKMET guidance...

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 18.0N 43.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 01.09.2005 18.0N 43.5W MODERATE

12UTC 01.09.2005 18.1N 45.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2005 19.2N 47.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 02.09.2005 20.5N 48.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2005 21.3N 49.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.09.2005 22.3N 51.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.09.2005 23.2N 52.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.09.2005 24.0N 53.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.09.2005 25.2N 55.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.09.2005 25.5N 57.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

nequad · #71 Postby **nequad** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:47 pm

GFDL, SHIPS, and UKMET make this system a hurricane by the end of the period.

The GFDL wants to move the system due north by the end of the period...and the UKMET makes a sharp turn west at the end of the period.

Will be interesting to see which solution is right.

The GFDL 12Z below...

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.3 36.8 295./18.0
6 12.1 38.0 304./13.6
12 13.4 39.2 316./17.6
18 14.5 39.9 327./12.8
24 15.9 41.1 320./18.4
30 16.6 42.6 297./16.0
36 17.5 44.3 298./18.2
42 18.1 45.4 299./12.4
48 18.6 46.7 289./12.9
54 19.4 47.9 305./14.4
60 19.9 49.2 291./13.0
66 19.8 50.4 263./11.9
72 20.0 50.6 324./ 2.8
78 20.7 51.1 324./ 8.8
84 21.5 51.6 327./ 9.3
90 22.1 51.9 335./ 6.8
96 23.2 52.3 342./11.7
102 24.2 52.6 341./ 9.9
108 25.4 52.7 355./11.6
114 26.7 53.1 344./13.6
120 28.1 53.4 346./14.3
126 29.4 53.8 343./13.9

cirrus971 · #72 Postby **cirrus971** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 4:26 pm

What it is

019
WHXX01 KWBC 301806
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM TEST (AL882005) ON 20050830 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050830 1800 050831 0600 050831 1800 050901 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.9N 19.9W 9.5N 23.2W 8.9N 26.7W 7.9N 30.1W
BAMM 9.9N 19.9W 9.3N 22.9W 8.5N 25.8W 7.7N 28.4W
A98E 9.9N 19.9W 10.2N 22.3W 10.4N 25.0W 10.1N 27.7W
LBAR 9.9N 19.9W 9.5N 22.7W 9.4N 25.9W 9.2N 29.4W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 41KTS 42KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 41KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050901 1800 050902 1800 050903 1800 050904 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 6.9N 33.2W 5.9N 36.8W 7.0N 38.4W 9.4N 39.6W
BAMM 7.2N 30.7W 8.4N 33.1W 12.1N 34.8W 17.0N 38.7W
A98E 9.2N 30.4W 7.9N 34.8W 7.3N 38.6W 7.6N 41.6W
LBAR 8.9N 33.0W 8.8N 39.1W 8.3N 42.9W 8.1N 43.6W
SHIP 45KTS 53KTS 59KTS 67KTS
DSHP 45KTS 53KTS 59KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.9N LONCUR = 19.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 17.7W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 14.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 70NM RD34NW = 80NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

spinfan4eva · #73 Postby **spinfan4eva** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 4:43 pm

On this loop of the UKMET, it would appear that after Katrina is out of the way, the High rebuilds dramatically sending it back west well north of the islands.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

WindRunner · #74 Postby **WindRunner** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 5:24 pm

Looks like it is starting to get together here.

5:30 TWO:

..

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

..

OURAGAN · #75 Postby **OURAGAN** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 6:30 pm

That you refer to will be probably the next invest behind 91L south of cap verde island.

cirrus971
Tropical Wave

Joined: 19 Apr 2005
Posts: 4
Location: Basse-Terre Guadeloupe
Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2005 5:26 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What it is

019
WHXX01 KWBC 301806
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM TEST (AL882005) ON 20050830 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050830 1800 050831 0600 050831 1800 050901 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.9N 19.9W 9.5N 23.2W 8.9N 26.7W 7.9N 30.1W
BAMM 9.9N 19.9W 9.3N 22.9W 8.5N 25.8W 7.7N 28.4W
A98E 9.9N 19.9W 10.2N 22.3W 10.4N 25.0W 10.1N 27.7W
LBAR 9.9N 19.9W 9.5N 22.7W 9.4N 25.9W 9.2N 29.4W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 41KTS 42KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 41KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050901 1800 050902 1800 050903 1800 050904 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 6.9N 33.2W 5.9N 36.8W 7.0N 38.4W 9.4N 39.6W
BAMM 7.2N 30.7W 8.4N 33.1W 12.1N 34.8W 17.0N 38.7W
A98E 9.2N 30.4W 7.9N 34.8W 7.3N 38.6W 7.6N 41.6W
LBAR 8.9N 33.0W 8.8N 39.1W 8.3N 42.9W 8.1N 43.6W
SHIP 45KTS 53KTS 59KTS 67KTS
DSHP 45KTS 53KTS 59KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.9N LONCUR = 19.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 17.7W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 14.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 70NM RD34NW = 80NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

Back to top

cyclone_eye · #76 Postby **cyclone_eye** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 6:33 pm

WindRunner wrote:THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...

If this becomes a TD, I'll eat my hat - literally. The Atlantic just seems to be shackling out these waves -- and I have NO objection.

#77 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 8:17 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050831 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050831 0000 050831 1200 050901 0000 050901 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.4N 38.8W 15.1N 41.2W 16.9N 43.5W 18.3N 45.8W
BAMM 13.4N 38.8W 14.9N 41.0W 16.6N 43.1W 18.1N 45.0W
A98E 13.4N 38.8W 15.2N 40.9W 16.7N 42.9W 18.2N 44.7W
LBAR 13.4N 38.8W 15.2N 40.9W 16.7N 43.0W 17.9N 45.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050902 0000 050903 0000 050904 0000 050905 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.4N 48.0W 21.2N 52.0W 22.8N 55.3W 24.1N 57.9W
BAMM 19.4N 46.8W 22.1N 50.4W 24.8N 53.6W 27.6N 55.8W
A98E 19.8N 46.4W 22.7N 49.8W 25.6N 52.9W 29.3N 54.6W
LBAR 18.7N 47.8W 20.7N 52.3W 23.6N 55.3W 27.2N 56.0W
SHIP 54KTS 69KTS 79KTS 83KTS
DSHP 54KTS 69KTS 79KTS 83KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 38.8W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 36.9W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 33.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00z Models.

#78 Postby **CronkPSU** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 8:20 pm

cyclone_eye wrote:
WindRunner wrote:THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...

If this becomes a TD, I'll eat my hat - literally. The Atlantic just seems to be shackling out these waves -- and I have NO objection.

well, we thought the same thing about the wave that produced TD10/12/Katrina, that thing should have been destroyed several times over

SapphireSea · #79 Postby **SapphireSea** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 8:48 pm

Looks like some NEly shear is affecting the system somewhat. Looks like what might be a center is moving NW/NNW. Most models now show ex-Katrina create a trough, but have a weak ridge setting up after it. GFDL trended westward and also has a ridge filling in after ex-Kat trough. E Coast should monitor this one.

#80 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 9:22 pm

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

10:30 PM TWO.

This is what I call a real fish.

Tropical Storm Maria,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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