Pressure Up!

[Stratosphere747]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix_long.shtml

Southern side looks like crap...Could be a good sign.

I don't see the EWC either..IMO....

[btangy]

I think Katrina is in the midst of an ERC and if she is then she could be strengthening as she comes ashore. That and the warm eddy off the mouth of the MS river still lead me to believe she will be a solid CAT 5 at landfall.

Quite possibly... 90 degree+ water is certainly one element that will perhaps help the eyewall to suddenly consolidate right before landfall. 05Z satellite now in, and the W side continues to erode. This is leading me to believe perhaps some dry air has worked its way into the core. There's still a very cold ring of convection surrounding the eye and the eye itself is still very circular and cloud free. I usually look for the eye to become less circular as the first hint of weakening and I haven't seen that. I think persistence at 140-145mph landfall seems the best bet right now.

[ConvergenceZone]

its well passed the eddy now.

definite EWRC occurring. can see really strangwind readings during these processes, such as Floyds 929mb 105KT cat 3

.


Let's just hope it doesn't have time to complete it before making landfall. Afterall, landfall isn't going to be much longer.

[btangy]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix_long.shtml

Southern side looks like crap...Could be a good sign.

I don't see the EWC either..IMO....

The radar beam is shooting way above the clouds out there and that's why you're not seeing anything. As the hurricane approaches, the southern side will appear on radar.

[jpigott]

its well passed the eddy now.

definite EWRC occurring. can see really strangwind readings during these processes, such as Floyds 929mb 105KT cat 3

do you think it will have time to complete the ERWC and reintensify some or is it going to be on a downward trend from here on out

[wayoutfront]

It has time... and It could go either way

now is a matter of just reporting current conditions

[ConvergenceZone]

Here comes the eye on radar. Check it out . You can see the north side with the blue ocean starting to peek at ya.


http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rt%2c%20MS

[jpigott]

if i'm reading this right we have a cat4/5 cane with a intensity somewhere between Charley and Andrew (i'm from FL so i use these canes as a point of reference) except the windfield on Katrina is about twice as large as either Charley or Andrew. Not to mention Katrina is heading towards some major metro areas, one of which is liable to end up as a toxic soup bowl at the end of this. Excuse me while i get on my knees and say a prayer for all you folks on the northern gulf coast.

[logybogy]

Let me get this straight about the wind maxima......

Does that mean we could be seeing the Cat 3/4/5 winds dispersed throughout the circulation?

So instead of expecting the strongest winds right around the center, they could be further out?

[evilr00t]

and that's why an EWRC isn't a good thing

[djtil]

its a good thing...period.

[vbhoutex]

I hope you are wrong vbhoutex. I have a couple of questions


#1 They keep on talking about land fall in New Orleans, but New Orleans is well inland. I always thought the term "landfall" was only used if the city was on the coast??


#2 Also, they talk about New Orleans dealing with Cat5 or strong Cat4 winds, but won't the storm have weakened someone by the time it reaches New Orleans, I don't mean alot, but it should weaken somewhat, right?

I hope I am wrong too!!

NO is "inland" by 40 or so miles from the actual "shore" of LA. However, most of that area is swamp and what isn't is no more than maybe 7 feet msl(I think). NO is recognizable as a landfall point as opposed to Boothville, Port Sulphur and Grand Isle(even though Grand Isle is a relatively recognized name. Also NO is pretty much surrounded by swamp and/or water when you get down to the facts, thus the "landfall" scenario of NO.

Due to some of what I stated above and the fact that a majority of the hurricane will still be out over 90º water even when it is just East of NO(presuming it doensn't go right over NO) the city will more than likely experience the Western eyewall of Katrina and winds in the eyewall, even on the Western side could easily be sustained at CAT4 or even CAT5 intensity. Presuming she maintains the current 160mph winds or very close to that I would expect winds in NO especially on the Eastern sides of the city to be in the 135-145 mph range at a minimum. Winds are currently already gusting above 60 in NO and the hurricane is still over 120 miles from NO.

[gilbert88]

its a good thing...period.

If it manages to finish it, not quite. Hope it doesn't.

[djtil]

even if it somehow finishes (not likely in 12 hours) and redeepens back to where it was it would be a neutral event. saying that an ewrc at this point in time is a bad thing or has the potential to be a bad thing in a 902mb storm is incorrect.

[jkt21787]

People should have been more concerned about the surge and not wind since the surge is what could flood the city and kill many more than the wind. The surge will still be very impressive and destructive, even cat 5 levels of 20+ feet is very possible. Everyone remembers Ivan's surge even though it weakened, we are looking at the same situation here, only worse.

[superfly]

People should have been more concerned about the surge and not wind since the surge is what could flood the city and kill many more than the wind. The surge will still be very impressive and destructive, even cat 5 levels of 20+ feet is very possible. Everyone remembers Ivan's surge even though it weakened, we are looking at the same situation here, only worse.

Surge is caused by wind.

[jkt21787]

People should have been more concerned about the surge and not wind since the surge is what could flood the city and kill many more than the wind. The surge will still be very impressive and destructive, even cat 5 levels of 20+ feet is very possible. Everyone remembers Ivan's surge even though it weakened, we are looking at the same situation here, only worse.

Surge is caused by wind.

True, and that is exactly what the problem is. This was a cat 5, and cat 5 surge was produced. That surge just doesn't go away. Again look at Ivan. It was 120 mph coming, yet it had a cat 4 surge as it was a cat 4 hours before landfall. Same situation here could be playing out except we're dealing with cat 5 surge.

[djtil]

although the actual coastal surge has a memory of the previous strength as the previous build up at a higher windspeed continues into the coast, it seems to me this secondary new orleans surge would be more associated with the actual winds at the time of "cityfall" (not reall landfall).

just a thought.

[Thunder44]

299
WHXX01 KWBC 290605
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE KATRINA (AL122005) ON 20050829 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050829 0600 050829 1800 050830 0600 050830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.1N 89.6W 30.7N 90.0W 34.1N 89.1W 37.6N 85.7W
BAMM 28.1N 89.6W 30.3N 90.0W 32.7N 89.2W 35.3N 86.7W
A98E 28.1N 89.6W 30.1N 90.1W 32.3N 89.4W 36.1N 86.2W
LBAR 28.1N 89.6W 30.3N 89.9W 32.6N 89.6W 35.2N 88.3W
SHIP 140KTS 140KTS 130KTS 114KTS
DSHP 140KTS 123KTS 55KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050831 0600 050901 0600 050902 0600 050903 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 40.9N 80.1W 46.9N 69.8W 51.9N 64.3W 54.3N 60.4W
BAMM 38.2N 82.4W 43.4N 72.2W 47.9N 64.3W 50.6N 58.6W
A98E 39.7N 82.6W 47.1N 71.4W 52.3N 57.6W 52.6N 40.2W
LBAR 37.7N 85.7W 43.4N 76.6W 49.0N 61.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 94KTS 58KTS 21KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 30KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.1N LONCUR = 89.6W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 26.4N LONM12 = 88.7W DIRM12 = 320DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 25.2N LONM24 = 86.8W
WNDCUR = 140KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 145KT
CENPRS = 910MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 200NM RD34SE = 200NM RD34SW = 150NM RD34NW = 180NM

They still have at 140kts with the pressure 910mb. So they haven't decided downgrade her yet. Also she's still moving NNW.

[jkt21787]

AP reporting 107 mph wind gust in Downtown N.O.