Katrina toward LA landfall--track, conditions

[Recurve]

Looks like the forecast and the movement are trending toward due north, which might keep the center just barely to the east of Lake Pontchartrain or at least a little east of the French quarter. Still, that might put most of the city in the western eyewall.

The position estimate at 11 p.m.:

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HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

AT 11 PM CDT...0400Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY NOAA/NWS LANDBASED RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 90 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT
160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

The advisory now forecasts the center to reach 89.7W at 29.2N, but to have gone back east by .2W when it reaches 31.8N.

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FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.2N  89.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.8N  89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE 175SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 34.8N  88.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  25SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 37.7N  85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

Near 11 p.m. CDT, weather station Station BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA reported:

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Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 64 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 71 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.05 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.21 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.5 °F

KLIX radar at 11:53 pm CDT shows the center of the eye to be about 130 nm from New Orleans and 146 nm from Slidell, and about 65 nm from the point of landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi, which will happen around 29.3N 89.6W.

[vortex100]

Current radar trends and model forecasts indicate that New Orleans will be hit by the western eyewall of Katrina. The eye is still large, but has seen some small contraction in the last few hours, with indications of the beginning of an eyewall replacement. Even so, with the storm center nearing land, this is fairly insignificant at this point. Violent northeasterly winds are expected over New Orleans as the eyewall hits late this morning. These winds over Lake Pontchartrain, in combination with the expected storm surge, will likely bring very large waves off the lake into the northern half of the city. A backwater surge up the Mississippi is also possible, which would add additional flooding over the southern end of the city. This does not figure in the water falling from the sky, which could be 8-12 inches in torrential downpours.

[digitaldahling]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 290455
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
MIDNIGHT CDT MON AUG 29 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE KATRINA
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT MIDNIGHT CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
ALREADY DETERIORATING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND
KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT EITHER CATEGORY FOUR OR
FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE
BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND
LEVEL.

KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. A WIND GUST TO 98 MPH WAS
RECENTLY REPORTED FROM SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 908 MB...26.81 INCHES.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING KATRINA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA
COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE MIDNIGHT CDT POSITION...27.9 N... 89.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 908 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Recurve]

According to the last three advisories (10, 11, midnight CDT), the center has gone .3 north and .1 west, to 89.5W

[digitaldahling]

ZCZC MIATCEAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE KATRINA WAS
ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND NOAA/NWS LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 75 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT
135 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

A WIND GUST TO 101 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT SOUTHWEST PASS
LOUISIANA.

FORECASTER STEWART