TD 13,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN (AL132005) ON 20050828 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050828 1800 050829 0600 050829 1800 050830 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.8N 46.3W 15.5N 48.7W 16.3N 50.8W 17.1N 52.8W
BAMM 14.8N 46.3W 15.8N 48.8W 17.0N 51.1W 18.1N 53.4W
A98E 14.8N 46.3W 15.9N 48.2W 16.8N 50.5W 17.7N 52.7W
LBAR 14.8N 46.3W 15.8N 48.7W 16.6N 51.4W 17.4N 54.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050830 1800 050831 1800 050901 1800 050902 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 54.9W 19.5N 58.8W 20.5N 62.6W 20.5N 66.3W
BAMM 19.6N 55.4W 22.7N 58.9W 25.8N 61.5W 26.9N 63.1W
A98E 18.8N 55.2W 22.1N 59.6W 25.4N 63.6W 29.3N 65.9W
LBAR 18.3N 57.1W 20.5N 61.9W 23.6N 64.7W 26.3N 66.2W
SHIP 46KTS 57KTS 61KTS 61KTS
DSHP 46KTS 57KTS 61KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 46.3W DIRCUR = 304DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 43.9W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 39.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Wow the models changed from this morning now go aay from islands.Let's see what happens in reallity.

[SouthFLTropics]

Great, just what we need right now...It just keeps on coming...Thanks for the update Luis...Hopefully Lee likes to fish!!!

[WindRunner]

Lock that 90L thread, TD13's too good for that now! Yeeehaaaaw!

[hicksta]

Are these the models for this storm? Showing it going into the GOM

[hicksta]

Are these the models for this storm? Showing it going into the GOM

[ConvergenceZone]

They also mentioned that the wave just moving off of Africa will probably also become a depression, so hopefully one of the two will at least be a fish.

[feederband]

no breaks... jeeze

[cyclone_eye]

This is a bit puzzling because T-number on 90L is 1.0 while it is 1.4 for 91L

Also, TD 13 seems sheared to the east.

[cjrciadt]

By Tuesday: Lee,TD14, and 97L? all before Sept.

[Ola]

This is a bit puzzling because T-number on 90L is 1.0 while it is 1.4 for 91L

Also, TD 13 seems sheared to the east.

cyclone_eye? Are you related to cycloneye?

[Jim Hughes]

cyloneye.

I just thought I would let you know that TD13 has formed under the exact conditions that TD11 did....my forecast last week...Solar winds below 500 km/sec...(410)..lowest 1 hour average in a week occurred earlier on the 28th (393) ....

The magnetic field directional component of the solar wind is negative and the Stanford Mean magnetic field value has been positve for almost 48 hours now.

One other note. I mentioned this last year in TWC's Tropics forum and maybe this year also. Tropical depressions seem to have a tendancy to form when another hurricane reaches the major status level.

This can occur real far apart from each other so I have to wonder about the standard meteorological reasoning behind this. Although MJO and SAL come to mind of course.


Jim

JIm

[johngaltfla]

Ugh. Why would it turn NW? Maybe until it hits the high pressure off the east coast of Florida. This is setting up again, just like last year. And Katrina did not upwell enough water near Florida to make any difference in the SSTs.

[Weatherboy1]

if there's good news with regards to 13, it's that Katrina is expected to move into the US Northeast and help develop some troughing along the East Coast late in the week, according to a couple of FL NWS discussions. This could weaken the W end of the Atlantic ridge and allow 13 to recurve and or head to the N between Bermuda and the East Coast. Too early to say for sure how things will play out, of course. But it's better than seeing models indicate two full weeks of uninterrupted ridging across the atlantic. We should have a better idea for any potential US threat in about three days.

-Mike

[cycloneye]

Models dont have a clue about TD13 will go as they diverge bigtime.

[cjrciadt]

Okay just like TD12 we are starting with wild guess with this one. Will she become Lee? Will it fall apart Mon? Or stay enough intact to hang around for a week and get together like you know who.

[johngaltfla]

This is shaping up to be a long 6 week stretch. Time to buy more coffee. Lots more. Gallons of it.

[MBismyPlayground]

Hey Cyclone, can ya do me a favor????
Can you move that NHC red line a little bit over and up???
Thank God these are just the first runs and such.

[caribepr]

Models dont have a clue about TD13 will go as they diverge bigtime.

No chit, mi amigo! Came back from a day away from computers and it was all north, now all OVER.
Well, I am ready as can be except for moving the really important stuff to a designated spot in tupper ware containers....so I'm not going to think about it for a minute or so. Katrina is wearing me out and I'm still trying and hoping to have my new biz going by the weekend...or maybe not.

[Hyperstorm]

People in the islands should be thankful that TD 13 (Ex-Invest 90L) didn't strengthen much before getting there.

That is the primary reason why the system has been steered more northward. I talked about this scenario earlier. If it had strengthened more, it would have likely taken a more southerly route.

There are several LLCs and MLCs in the system, so strengthening has been limited. There is a MLC to the south which is heading straight toward the islands and the environment for that one appears VERY favorable, anticyclonically, but the system has not taken good use of that. Those are some very good news for them.

Hopefully, the system does not strengthen NE of the islands and is steered southward by UL northerlies, as suggested by the medium and deep BAM models. I don't buy that scenario happening.

[apocalypt-flyer]

If there's going to be a problem with this one it might be one for the Carolinas but I tend to say this one's going to be a fish, and not even a major one. If BAMM and BAMD are right with their prediction (I hope they are not) and TD13 heads into the Carribean Sea first (perhaps into the GOM later on), it'll be totally different situation because SST are so high that even moderate vertical shear or anything of the likes will not harm its development too much.