Trough vs Kat

[loon]

Okay, the flames will roll, blah blah blah, whatever, here goes....

My concern is this, on WV the trough isn't coming south anymore, its riding over the top, Kat appears to be *winning* if you will. I believe the WNW movement has had a much more Westerly action to it in the last hour or so. The "cleared out" area between Texas and Kat hasn't shruken in size as much as I thought was predicted, and in fact is getting backed up with another dry slot behind it, with only a sliver of what was left of the trough sticking it out, but heading out NE and I think will be gone within 5 hours. This, I BELIEVE, will change everything, but I won't call a landfall just yet, until I see the last bit of cloud cover move out of SE Texas. I'm probably WAY off base on all of this, and she is probably just Stair stepping, but I wanted to put my thoughts down somewhere, hopefully I'll get constructive criticism and not too much flamage....thanks

cheers,
loon

[deltadog03]

honestly, i have to agree with ya....I think A. its moving faster...B. so far, there has been no N movement...(its wnw) and has wobbling almost due west at times...and nnw a time or 2 as well...Its gonna be a tough call...the trof is really having a hard time pushing her n

[jwayne]

loon, interesting observation. i'd be interested in what the pro mets have to say about the trough.

[loon]

Well, I appreciate that, but we live in Texas, so the -removed- calls will come, so I'd like feedback from someone in say Florida, but we shall see. Time will tell and we'll all know tomorrow, ehhe.

cheers,
loon

[crazycajuncane]

For the sake of everyone to the West of New Orleans I hope we aren't boarding up at 10 pm tonight. She needs to go where they say she is going. Too many people would be impacted if she went west of where they said. To the east wouldn't be as bad as those people are gone already.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Okay, the flames will roll, blah blah blah, whatever, here goes....

My concern is this, on WV the trough isn't coming south anymore, its riding over the top, Kat appears to be *winning* if you will. I believe the WNW movement has had a much more Westerly action to it in the last hour or so. The "cleared out" area between Texas and Kat hasn't shruken in size as much as I thought was predicted, and in fact is getting backed up with another dry slot behind it, with only a sliver of what was left of the trough sticking it out, but heading out NE and I think will be gone within 5 hours. This, I BELIEVE, will change everything, but I won't call a landfall just yet, until I see the last bit of cloud cover move out of SE Texas. I'm probably WAY off base on all of this, and she is probably just Stair stepping, but I wanted to put my thoughts down somewhere, hopefully I'll get constructive criticism and not too much flamage....thanks

cheers,
loon

NHC has it nailed..Worst Case Senerio...

[loon]

Okay, the flames will roll, blah blah blah, whatever, here goes....

My concern is this, on WV the trough isn't coming south anymore, its riding over the top, Kat appears to be *winning* if you will. I believe the WNW movement has had a much more Westerly action to it in the last hour or so. The "cleared out" area between Texas and Kat hasn't shruken in size as much as I thought was predicted, and in fact is getting backed up with another dry slot behind it, with only a sliver of what was left of the trough sticking it out, but heading out NE and I think will be gone within 5 hours. This, I BELIEVE, will change everything, but I won't call a landfall just yet, until I see the last bit of cloud cover move out of SE Texas. I'm probably WAY off base on all of this, and she is probably just Stair stepping, but I wanted to put my thoughts down somewhere, hopefully I'll get constructive criticism and not too much flamage....thanks

cheers,
loon

NHC has it nailed..Worst Case Senerio...

I believe the same DESTRUCT, I was just putting down my thoughts...

cheers,
loon

[MBismyPlayground]

loon,
I was questioning the same thing. Since I am not a MET nor know jack diddly where this is concerned I will have to beleive in the NHC. But still glancing over your way with questioning eyes. No flame here

[birdwomn]

Well, I can hope you are right, loon. But I am afraid that the NHC has it nailed and we are in the worst case scenario. I wish my local met here in Tampa would come in and give his thoughts... He is a hurricane geek.

[birdwomn]

Well, I can hope you are right, loon. But I am afraid that the NHC has it nailed and we are in the worst case scenario. I wish my local met here in Tampa would come in and give his thoughts... He is a hurricane geek.

[jwayne]

dammit, that better not be a left hook I'm seeing on last two satellite shots.

[TXWXGAL]

I am new to posting on the board and I admit that I don't understand quite alot on Hurricane predictions, however, this morning Steve Lyons on the Weather Channel stated that Katrina is fighting this trough. I wondered at the time what effect that will have on the path of Katrina.

[SWLA]

It won't be much longer before it is south of the mouth of the
mississippi. That turn had better start soon or we could see
a landfall closer to Houma. JMO.

[storms in NC]

It won't be much longer before it is south of the mouth of the
mississippi. That turn had better start soon or we could see
a landfall closer to Houma. JMO.

If I had to guees and that would be a guess. It would go into Houma or inaround there. going more west every min

[Stratosphere747]

It looks like the eye is about to appear on the long-range. If that is it, the movement looks to be WNW to NW, just as the NHC's has it going.

Good thoughts though Loon...

[Stratosphere747]

It looks like the eye is about to appear on the long-range. If that is it, the movement looks to be WNW to NW, just as the NHC's has it going.

Good thoughts though Loon...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix_long.shtml

[dwg71]

Its just wobbling, NHC 24hour margin of error is very very good. NOLA, is never going to be the same I'm afraid. Send money to the Red Cross.

[dwg71]

Its just wobbling, NHC 24hour margin of error is very very good. NOLA, is never going to be the same I'm afraid. Send money to the Red Cross.

[TheShrimper]

I would agree. Even the WV loop of the CONUS shows that there is no SE push anymore, infact it is starting to bulge back to the NW.

[TheShrimper]

I would agree. Even the WV loop of the CONUS shows that there is no SE push anymore, infact it is starting to bulge back to the NW.