Hurricane Katrina

[WindRunner]

is appropriate!

191mph *.9 = 172 mph!!!

Upgrade at 11 for sure . . .

[drezee]

Storm KATRINA: Observed By AF #302
Storm #12 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 166KT (190.9mph 307.4km/h) In Quadrant At UND NE QUAD 1422Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 149.4KT (171.8mph 276.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: PERFECT STADIUM EFFECT AND TEXTBOOK RADAR DEPICTION OF EYEWALL.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Sunday, August 28, 2005 10:17:00 AM (Sun, 28 Aug 2005 14:17:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 25° 58' N 088° 03' W (26.0°N 88.1°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2294m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured nm (0miles) From Center At Bearing °
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 140KT (161mph 259.3km/h) From 306°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 014nm (16.1 miles) From Center At Bearing 221°
Minimum pressure: 907mb (26.78in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 22 nm (25.3 mi 40.7km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[senorpepr]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 17
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 21
Time: 14:17:00Z
Latitude: 26°N
Longitude: 88.1°W
Location: 255 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Minimum height at 700 mb 2294 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Maximum flight level wind: NW (306°) @ 161 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 16 mi SW (221°)
Sea level pressure: 907 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 54°F at 10036 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 79°F at 10000 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 43°F
Eye character: CLOSED WALL
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 25 mi
#VALUE!
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 1 / 1 nm
MAX FL WIND 166 KTS OUTBOUND NE QUAD 1422Z. PERFECT STADIUM EFFECT AND TEXTBOOK RADAR DEPICTION OF EYEWALL.

[btangy]

The NAM also initializes Katrina as a 992mb low. On those grounds, I would toss it out.

[WindRunner]

The word "perfect" doesn't sit too well right now . . .

[cjrciadt]

The word "perfect" doesn't sit too well right now . . .

Andrew was called "The Perfect Storm" Title Revoked.

[senorpepr]

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 17
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 22
Time: 1400Z
Latitude: 26°N
Longitude: 88°W
Location: 255 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Surface: 907 mb; Temp: 81°F; Dewpt: 26.1°F; W (280°) @ 6 mph
850mb height: 5164 ft; Temp: 75°F; Dewpt: 22.8°F; WNW (290°) @ 12 mph
700mb height: 10801 ft; Temp: 80°F; Dewpt: 6.6°F; N (0°) @ 0 mph
EYE SPL 2598N08802W 1420 MBL WND 28507 AEV 20507 DLM WND 30
505 907725 WL150 28507 075 =

[drezee]

Senor please help!!


499
UZNT13 KNHC 281436
XXAA 78147 99261 70879 08167 99919 26800 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85688 22001 10671 70371 14800 13621 88999 77999
31313 09608 81421
61616 AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 23
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2621N08809W 1425 LST WND 063 MBL WND 07666
AEV 20507 DLM WND 11135 913707 WL150 06658 138 =
XXBB 78148 99261 70879 08167 00919 26800 11909 24600 22850 22001
33789 19803 44783 21401 55777 20602 66705 17000 77697 13600
21212 00919 ///// 11913 06657 22908 06161 33905 06657 44900 07158
55895 07665 66887 07661 77884 08179 88882 08181 99880 08680 11877
09168 22871 08673 33868 08685 44866 10734 55853 10174 66842 11167
77822 11684 88803 12155 99793 12167 11777 13117 22769 13114 33697
13620
31313 09608 81421
61616 AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 23
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2621N08809W 1425 LST WND 063 MBL WND 07666
AEV 20507 DLM WND 11135 913707 WL150 06658 138 =

[senorpepr]

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 17
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 23
Time: 1400Z
Latitude: 26.1°N
Longitude: 87.9°W
Location: 252 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Surface: 919 mb; Temp: 80°F; Dewpt: 26.8°F; N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
850mb height: 2257 ft; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 21.9°F; ESE (105°) @ 197 mph
700mb height: 11060 ft; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 14.8°F; SE (135°) @ 139 mph
EYEWALL 045 SPL 2621N08809W 1425 LST WND 063 MBL WND 07666
AEV 20507 DLM WND 11135 913707 WL150 06658 138 =

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 17
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 42
Latest Recon Position: 233 mi SE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 14:27:00Z; 26.3°N 87.7°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -902 ft; Wind: SSE (147°) @ 147 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 149 mph; Radar Altitude: 9259 ft
Ob #02: 14:27:30Z; 26.3°N 87.7°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -833 ft; Wind: SE (146°) @ 141 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 144 mph; Radar Altitude: 9324 ft
Ob #03: 14:28:00Z; 26.4°N 87.7°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: -774 ft; Wind: SSE (147°) @ 136 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 137 mph; Radar Altitude: 9396 ft
Ob #04: 14:28:30Z; 26.4°N 87.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -725 ft; Wind: SSE (148°) @ 134 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 134 mph; Radar Altitude: 9429 ft
Ob #05: 14:29:00Z; 26.4°N 87.6°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: -679 ft; Wind: SSE (149°) @ 131 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 132 mph; Radar Altitude: 9488 ft
Ob #06: 14:29:30Z; 26.4°N 87.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -636 ft; Wind: SSE (150°) @ 128 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 129 mph; Radar Altitude: 9521 ft
Ob #07: 14:30:00Z; 26.4°N 87.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -594 ft; Wind: SSE (149°) @ 126 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 128 mph; Radar Altitude: 9560 ft
Ob #08: 14:30:30Z; 26.5°N 87.6°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: -558 ft; Wind: SSE (148°) @ 124 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 127 mph; Radar Altitude: 9613 ft
Ob #09: 14:31:00Z; 26.5°N 87.5°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -518 ft; Wind: SSE (147°) @ 121 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 122 mph; Radar Altitude: 9636 ft
Ob #10: 14:31:30Z; 26.5°N 87.5°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: -489 ft; Wind: SSE (148°) @ 120 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 122 mph; Radar Altitude: 9678 ft
Ob #11: 14:32:00Z; 26.5°N 87.5°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: -459 ft; Wind: SSE (150°) @ 116 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 120 mph; Radar Altitude: 9692 ft
Ob #12: 14:32:30Z; 26.5°N 87.5°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: -427 ft; Wind: SSE (152°) @ 113 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 113 mph; Radar Altitude: 9747 ft
Ob #13: 14:33:00Z; 26.5°N 87.4°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -397 ft; Wind: SSE (152°) @ 119 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 122 mph; Radar Altitude: 9760 ft
Ob #14: 14:33:30Z; 26.6°N 87.4°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: -371 ft; Wind: SSE (150°) @ 123 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Max Wind: 126 mph; Radar Altitude: 9780 ft
Ob #15: 14:34:00Z; 26.6°N 87.4°W; PA: 10020 ft; D-Value: -338 ft; Wind: SSE (153°) @ 122 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 126 mph; Radar Altitude: 9846 ft
Ob #16: 14:34:30Z; 26.6°N 87.4°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -308 ft; Wind: SSE (152°) @ 122 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 123 mph; Radar Altitude: 9856 ft
Ob #17: 14:35:00Z; 26.7°N 87.4°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -315 ft; Wind: SSE (148°) @ 119 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Max Wind: 121 mph; Radar Altitude: 9852 ft
Ob #18: 14:35:30Z; 26.6°N 87.5°W; PA: 9980 ft; D-Value: -351 ft; Wind: SE (146°) @ 119 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 119 mph; Radar Altitude: 9790 ft
Ob #19: 14:36:00Z; 26.7°N 87.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -374 ft; Wind: SE (144°) @ 115 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 116 mph; Radar Altitude: 9787 ft
Ob #20: 14:36:30Z; 26.7°N 87.5°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: -387 ft; Wind: SE (143°) @ 115 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Max Wind: 116 mph; Radar Altitude: 9783 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[wxman57]

FYI, I'm looking at a dropsonde report that has 167 kts at just below 700mb, but 233 kts at 866mb!! Holy cow!

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA...EVEN
STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES.

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[senorpepr]

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 17
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 24
Time: 1432Z
Latitude: 26.5°N
Longitude: 87.4°W
Location: 248 mi SE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Turbulence: Light occasional moderate
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: SSE (150°) @ 113 mph
Temperature: 54°F
Dewpoint: 54°F
Weather: Unknown
700mb height: 9500 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: 50 NM NORTHEAST TURNPOINT

[WindRunner]

Post it, even though it sounds suspicious.

[x-y-no]

FYI, I'm looking at a dropsonde report that has 167 kts at just below 700mb, but 233 kts at 866mb!! Holy cow!

Wow!

[wjs3]

WXMAN:

Agree that sounds suspicious, but please do post!

[WindRunner]

28 foot storm surge!![/quote]

[timeflow]

holy katrina!@$#%^! 175mph!!!

[kevin]

I'm sick to my stomach.

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 17
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 43
Latest Recon Position: 210 mi SE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 14:37:00Z; 26.7°N 87.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -400 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 111 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 114 mph; Radar Altitude: 9760 ft
Ob #02: 14:37:30Z; 26.7°N 87.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -410 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 108 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 109 mph; Radar Altitude: 9751 ft
Ob #03: 14:38:00Z; 26.7°N 87.7°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -413 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 109 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 111 mph; Radar Altitude: 9744 ft
Ob #04: 14:38:30Z; 26.7°N 87.7°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -417 ft; Wind: SE (130°) @ 107 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 108 mph; Radar Altitude: 9741 ft
Ob #05: 14:39:00Z; 26.8°N 87.7°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: -423 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 111 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 112 mph; Radar Altitude: 9744 ft
Ob #06: 14:39:30Z; 26.8°N 87.8°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -423 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 112 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 113 mph; Radar Altitude: 9741 ft
Ob #07: 14:40:00Z; 26.8°N 87.8°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -423 ft; Wind: ESE (123°) @ 112 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 112 mph; Radar Altitude: 9738 ft
Ob #08: 14:40:30Z; 26.8°N 87.9°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -417 ft; Wind: ESE (120°) @ 112 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 113 mph; Radar Altitude: 9744 ft
Ob #09: 14:41:00Z; 26.8°N 87.9°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -410 ft; Wind: ESE (119°) @ 116 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 119 mph; Radar Altitude: 9754 ft
Ob #10: 14:41:30Z; 26.9°N 88°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -404 ft; Wind: ESE (117°) @ 121 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 122 mph; Radar Altitude: 9760 ft
Ob #11: 14:42:00Z; 26.9°N 88°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -384 ft; Wind: ESE (112°) @ 116 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 123 mph; Radar Altitude: 9774 ft
Ob #12: 14:42:30Z; 26.9°N 88°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -364 ft; Wind: ESE (112°) @ 109 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 111 mph; Radar Altitude: 9797 ft
Ob #13: 14:43:00Z; 26.9°N 88.1°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: -338 ft; Wind: ESE (110°) @ 103 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 106 mph; Radar Altitude: 9839 ft
Ob #14: 14:43:30Z; 26.9°N 88.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -384 ft; Wind: ESE (105°) @ 107 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 111 mph; Radar Altitude: 9780 ft
Ob #15: 14:44:00Z; 26.9°N 88.1°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: -420 ft; Wind: ESE (106°) @ 97 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 98 mph; Radar Altitude: 9728 ft
Ob #16: 14:44:30Z; 26.8°N 88.1°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -436 ft; Wind: ESE (106°) @ 94 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 96 mph; Radar Altitude: 9724 ft
Ob #17: 14:45:00Z; 26.8°N 88.1°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -456 ft; Wind: ESE (105°) @ 97 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 98 mph; Radar Altitude: 9705 ft
Ob #18: 14:45:30Z; 26.8°N 88.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: -479 ft; Wind: ESE (102°) @ 97 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 98 mph; Radar Altitude: 9688 ft
Ob #19: 14:46:00Z; 26.8°N 88.1°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -505 ft; Wind: E (100°) @ 101 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 105 mph; Radar Altitude: 9649 ft
Ob #20: 14:46:30Z; 26.7°N 88.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -535 ft; Wind: ESE (102°) @ 107 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 108 mph; Radar Altitude: 9629 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect