Scary models:
WHXX01 KWBC 281210
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
HURRICANE KATRINA (AL122005) ON 20050828 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050828 1200 050829 0000 050829 1200 050830 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.7N 87.7W 26.9N 89.0W 28.6N 90.1W 30.8N 90.4W
BAMM 25.7N 87.7W 27.0N 89.0W 28.6N 90.1W 30.5N 90.4W
A98E 25.7N 87.7W 26.8N 89.4W 28.2N 90.1W 31.4N 89.5W
LBAR 25.7N 87.7W 27.2N 89.2W 29.2N 90.2W 31.9N 90.0W
SHIP 140KTS 151KTS 152KTS 141KTS
DSHP 140KTS 151KTS 152KTS 86KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050830 1200 050831 1200 050901 1200 050902 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.5N 89.9W 38.9N 85.0W 44.7N 73.6W 51.6N 61.0W
BAMM 32.7N 89.8W 37.3N 85.1W 41.4N 75.2W 47.3N 60.9W
A98E 36.0N 87.6W 41.7N 84.0W 44.2N 75.7W 49.3N 55.5W
LBAR 34.5N 88.8W 40.0N 81.4W 48.6N 67.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 128KTS 93KTS 65KTS 30KTS
DSHP 46KTS 29KTS 30KTS 30KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.7N LONCUR = 87.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 24.9N LONM12 = 85.9W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 24.4N LONM24 = 84.6W
WNDCUR = 140KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 105KT
CENPRS = 908MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 160NM RD34SE = 160NM RD34SW = 125NM RD34NW = 140NM
Dvorak:
28/1145 UTC 25.8N 87.7W T7.0/7.0 KATRINA -- Atlantic Ocean
And referencing the chart (I don't have to look this far down that often)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
Pressure to go to 155kts, and SHIPS showing peak 152kts, strengthening is definately in order.
