NHC track now the western outlier...

[aOl]

Discounting the BAM models of course, which are only good the deep tropics. I wonder why they expect it to turn north so quickly... BTW what is the NHCA9BE?

[Steve]

Didn't see the models yet, but would they be eastern outlier then?

Steve

[hicksta]

Do you mean the models are showing a more W hit and the NHC is e.

[djtil]

they are right down the middle....split between the ukmet and the nogaps and right on top of the gfs/gfdl......

[Stormcenter]

Discounting the BAM models of course, which are only good the deep tropics. I wonder why they expect it to turn north so quickly... BTW what is the NHCA9BE?

Models link please?

[rtd2]

they are right down the middle....split between the ukmet and the nogaps and right on top of the gfs/gfdl......

Yep no Big change

[aOl]

No, I mean west.

[dhweather]

they are right down the middle....split between the ukmet and the nogaps and right on top of the gfs/gfdl......

And have been for 18 hours plus. SELA is ground zero, I'm quite confident in that.

Bedtime for me, hopefully KAtrina won't be a cat 5 at 5.

[djtil]

you are missing the nogaps....which offsets the ukmet.

ignore everything but nogaps, gfdl/gfs, and ukmet (and the fsu stuff but you arent going to see that anyway).....this close in the nhc will typically average those together unless there is an obvious flaw in one of them.

[Ixolib]

they are right down the middle....split between the ukmet and the nogaps and right on top of the gfs/gfdl......

And have been for 18 hours plus. SELA is ground zero, I'm quite confident in that.

Bedtime for me, hopefully KAtrina won't be a cat 5 at 5.

Yep - night night time for me too. Tomorrow (and the next several) is/are gonna be very long, very hot, and very humid!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Also she has been moving due west for the last 3 1/2 hours. The models are showing at least a wnw to NW movement from here on out. 20-40 miles west will make a huge difference for some epople.

[rtd2]

Also she has been moving due west for the last 3 1/2 hours. The models are showing at least a wnw to NW movement from here on out. 20-40 miles west will make a huge difference for some epople.

LOOK at the Actual NHC track Below.....Models are Confirmiming NHC's track....Right on the Line Wobbles and ALL.NHC has got a Good handle on this.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

[mvtrucking]

Also she has been moving due west for the last 3 1/2 hours. The models are showing at least a wnw to NW movement from here on out. 20-40 miles west will make a huge difference for some epople.

LOOK at the Actual NHC track Below.....Models are Confirmiming NHC's track....Right on the Line Wobbles and ALL.NHC has got a Good handle on this.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

That is the reason for the call(From the NHC) to the mayor of NO to tell them to evacuate now. Make it mandatory.

[hicksta]

The two far west are the BAMMS. Aren't really the best with these storms. But if she keeps moving W like she is this may get worse for LA. West top quadrent

[AL Chili Pepper]

The only eastern outliers I've seen are the UKMet and the Canadian....unless you want to count the NAM. All the others are tightly clustered around the NO area. The GFDL (which the NHC is always giving Kudos) is right on top of the NHC track. New Orleans still looks like ground zero, but I'm not letting my guard down.

[djtil]

i think worst case for nola is coming just east...or exactly where the official track is.....less land (i know people discount the 75 miles from the southern coast to nola but i think its hugely signficant.

[mtm4319]

The worst-case would be a path just east of the city, because north winds would push water from Lake Pontchartain over the levees and into the city. And with the eye getting huge, it's mattering less whether the center goes 5 miles or 25 miles east of the city.