Hurricane Katrina

[eolian]

Hey who`s got that pic from SNL "we need more recon baby!!!"

[JamesFromMaine2]

any one posting the recon data?

[cycloneye]

Hey Al Hurricane it was at fourth page already.

[Hyperstorm]

Hmmm....Lightning in the NE eyewall. This usually indicates one of two things.

Either the storm is starting to deepen extremely rapidly or the persistent dry air over the past few days is still bugging the storm and not allowing the winds to increase as they should.

That being said, the 114kts could argue for a 105kt (120 mph) hurricane...

[CronkPSU]

i am more confused how we had an 80 page thread on this storm when it was being sheared to pieces and we had like 100 page thread on irene, now we have our own super typhoon on ours hands and this thread can't break 20 pages

[kevin]

I was wondering why the mention of lightning in the NE eyewall. Mentioned to a friend how rare it was with hurricanes, but didn't know any correlation between weakening or strengthening.

[vortex100]

Latest GFS model still shows significant strengthening, and the center is still aiming for the southeastern tip of Lousiana. This path would still bring a signficant storm surge into Brenton Sound, Chandeleur sound westward into Lake Pontchartrain. Violent northeasterly flow over Lake Pontchartrain could empty the lake into the northern end of the city, despite the extensive leavy system. This model also shows a quicker northerly movement, bringing tropical storm force winds onto the coast by 1 a.m. Monday morning.

[Ixolib]

Latest GFS model still shows significant strengthening, and the center is still aiming for the southeastern tip of Lousiana. This path would still bring a signficant storm surge into Brenton Sound, Chandeleur sound westward into Lake Pontchartrain. Violent northeasterly flow over Lake Pontchartrain could empty the lake into the northern end of the city, despite the extensive leavy system. This model also shows a quicker northerly movement, bringing tropical storm force winds onto the coast by 1 a.m. Monday morning.

Might also be the end of Chandeleur. Here's a before& after comparision I did last year of what Ivan did to the island chain. And that was just with a glancing blow...

[LaBreeze]

If the trough would dig farther southeast as mentioned here, what impact would that have on Katrina's track?

[Derecho]

Eyewall lighting is associated with rapid intensification episodes; there was a thesis or dissertation on the subject by an AF Reserve recon crewman who was in FSU grad school, on the FSU website, some years ago, but the link has been dead for years.

[TS Zack]

626
URNT12 KNHC 280525
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/05:11:20Z
B. 25 deg 07 min N
086 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2530 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 225 deg 122 kt
G. 140 deg 019 nm
H. EXTRAP 935 mb
I. 10 C/ 3053 m
J. 19 C/ 3047 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E12/38/32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 1512A KATRINA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 122 KT SE QUAD 05:05:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
MAX FL TEMP 20C 310/9NM
LIGHTNING OBSERVED IN ONE OF THE OUTER BANDS, BUT NOT IN SE EYEWALL

[djtil]

125 at 1am.

[JamesFromMaine2]

if you use the reduction of .80 then its only 112MPH! I don't think it will be 120MPH at 2!

[djtil]

nevermind...its late.

[Dmetal81]

if you use the reduction of .80 then its only 112MPH! I don't think it will be 120MPH at 2!

Considering the rapidly improving eyewall structure before the satellite blackout, and the pressure drop, I have a feeling they'll extrapolate a wind increase.

[Seele]

696
WTNT62 KNHC 280541
TCUAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


...SHORTLY AFTER 1215 AM CDT... 0515Z... AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE KATRINA
HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH... CATEGORY FOUR ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY IN A
SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED AT APPROXIMATELY 1 AM CDT...0600Z.
THE SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

FORECASTER KNABB

$$

[djtil]

holy schmoly.

[JamesFromMaine2]

SHORTLY AFTER 1215 AM CDT... 0515Z... AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE KATRINA
HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH... CATEGORY FOUR ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY IN A
SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED AT APPROXIMATELY 1 AM CDT...0600Z.
THE SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

[soonertwister]

There you have it. Category 4 more than 24 hours from landfall. I do NOT like the trends for this storm, it's had such low pressure without matching wind intensity for so long that I'm really afraid that it could bomb out leading up to landfall, which is even worse that what I already think is going to happen on the Gulf Coast.

I'm not happy.

[mtm4319]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 25.0N 86.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 25.4N 87.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W 125 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W 85 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.4W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

So it took 3 hours for Katrina to do what NHC expected it to do in 48.