Katrina forecast #5: Still thinking NOLA.. Be ready to leave

[Josephine96]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE KATRINA
NJN WEATHER CENTER
840 AM SAT AUG 27TH 2005

Residents of Louisiana and Mississippi are on edge this morning as a dangerously strong Hurricane Katrina continues to meander in the GOM off the coast of Florida.

Katrina has begun to move more westerly. This should cause her to eventually move more WNW and then eventually to her final destination. Most models are predicting a hit in Louisiana or Mississippi. This would be devastating news for New Orleans.

New Orleans is below sea level so the damage would be beyond catastrophic. Water would easily invade the whole city, the winds would rip everything to shreds at the forecast they could be. Katrina is still developing and could be a Category 5. Yes I said 5 by landfall.

Katrina is over very HOT warm waters, they will continue to cause Katrina to grow. Katrina may weaken as she approaches the coast, like some GOM hurricanes have done in the past {Ivan, Isabel, Lili, Dennis}

This could be a very dangerous situation developing for wherever Katrina decides to go.. so all GOMers from the Panhandle of Florida to about New Orleans need to keep especially close eyes on her.

My personal forecast has her making landfall in SE LA as a very strong Category 4.

Here is my experimental 5 day outlook on Katrina:
Today: Beginning to move more WNW. Becoming stronger. Max winds: 125 mph
Sunday: Still creeping along. Stronger in the warm waters. Max Winds: 135 mph
Monday: Accelerating towards Louisiana, landfall before Monday night. Max winds: 145 mph
Tuesday: Weakening over land. Catastrophic damage possible around New Orleans and other places. max winds: 95 mph
Wednesday:Around Nashville. Max Winds: 50 mph.

[Josephine96]

I love how everyone elses' forecasts get much feedback and I hardly get none..

I kinda find it discouraging.. Because it makes me think ya don't care what I think

[Hurricaneman]

Good or bad forecast depending where you are located

[Josephine96]

Thank you Hurricane Man

[SWLA]

Sorry Josephine96. I actually read all of your forecasts, I just don't
post much. It looks well thought out and could end up being pretty
accurate. Keep them coming!

[Goat Nipple]

I love how everyone elses' forecasts get much feedback and I hardly get none..

I kinda find it discouraging.. Because it makes me think ya don't care what I think

Sounds like somebody needs a hug.

[wxman57]

If you do not leave New Orleans today, and Katrina tracks as forecast, then you will quite likely die on the road tomorrow as Cat 4 Katrina heads north toward New Orleans and you're stuck in the biggest traffic jam you've ever seen. Get out now, people! It'll be too late to leave if you wait for Katrina to turn northward during the day on Sunday.

[Swimdude]

I love how everyone elses' forecasts get much feedback and I hardly get none..

I kinda find it discouraging.. Because it makes me think ya don't care what I think

I've read every single one of your forecasts since you started posting them regularly. I usually don't have much to say about your forecasts. Besides, it would get old saying "I agree!" time after time. To be quite honest, the lack of comments might be from lack of *pretty pictures* as people are attracted to. Just a suggestion. But I think your forecasts are great. =)

[wxman57]

If you do not leave New Orleans today, and Katrina tracks as forecast, then you will quite likely die on the road tomorrow as Cat 4 Katrina heads north toward New Orleans and you're stuck in the biggest traffic jam you've ever seen. Get out now, people! It'll be too late to leave if you wait for Katrina to turn northward during the day on Sunday.

[storms in NC]

If you do not leave New Orleans today, and Katrina tracks as forecast, then you will quite likely die on the road tomorrow as Cat 4 Katrina heads north toward New Orleans and you're stuck in the biggest traffic jam you've ever seen. Get out now, people! It'll be too late to leave if you wait for Katrina to turn northward during the day on Sunday.

I think you are so right. But my people that live in La don't want to leave till Sunday morning. They are in their 70's and they really don't want to leave at all. But said they would go to Jackson in the morning. I hope they stick to it if they don't I will bug them till they leave.

[Bob R]

Josephine96:
I read all of your forecasts, I just don't post much.
I suspect that people do care, but not everyone feels comfortable or bothers to comment.

[Josephine96]

Thanks for all the feedback guys..

[wxmann_91]

Great forecast Josephine!!!

But I still say that you've overestimated intensity inland, won't even be 50 mph at Nashville, there are hills surrounding it that will already rip Katrina up.

[Steve]

You did get 355 views. That's not bad for an amateur forecast. You know I've listened to your take ever since we debated Charley and you hit it on the head from a day or so out.



Steve

[Josephine96]

Thank you Steve.. Maybe my inland intensity is being a little bullish lol.. Maybe I wanna see them get some winds lol.. I don't know..

and I know.. I should remember.. "Your # of views is just as important as replies cause it tells how much people are reading"

[Brent]

Good forecast John. I do read it(most of the time... I don't go searching for it if it's not on the 1st page), but just don't reply all the time.

[Brent]

If you do not leave New Orleans today, and Katrina tracks as forecast, then you will quite likely die on the road tomorrow as Cat 4 Katrina heads north toward New Orleans and you're stuck in the biggest traffic jam you've ever seen. Get out now, people! It'll be too late to leave if you wait for Katrina to turn northward during the day on Sunday.

Yeah... I've been talking to a friend on a non-weather board who lives in New Orleans and he's finally leaving at 5am in the morning if the forecast is still the same... I tried, it's the best I can do...

[Josephine96]

Well Brent.. prayers for your friend that he gets to a safe place with plenty of time to spare

[smashmode]

If you do not leave New Orleans today, and Katrina tracks as forecast, then you will quite likely die on the road tomorrow as Cat 4 Katrina heads north toward New Orleans and you're stuck in the biggest traffic jam you've ever seen. Get out now, people! It'll be too late to leave if you wait for Katrina to turn northward during the day on Sunday.

Might be quicker to find a bicycle and try to ride out that way.

Cars might not be moving very quickly.