katrina derailed?

[Ivanhater]

looks like katrina is pretty far north of the track...again let me stress...this could be a wobble...locate the center then click on the forecast points

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[djtil]

looks pretty close to me...will come very close to next point, any deviation likely just due to reorg.

[skysummit]

Looks pretty much right on the track to me. The center is not that "dead" area that's north.

[Air Force Met]

All this movement speculation is just speculation until the center is reformed into a nice round eyewall. Even fixes from recon are going to be off a little until that happens because the vortex will rotate around and the center will jog north and west as deeper convection moves around the center. Until a center is clear and a closed/non-ragged solid eyewall is formed...expect jogs north and west. I think it will start it's WNW motion once that happens.

[skysummit]

AFM, how many more hours do you think we'll be seeing this "gathering together" before the eye begins to open?

[loon]

nice post AFM..thanks, this cleared it up a little for me too, as I was watching and couldn't really see the center, even where the Vortex said it was. Hopefully the eye fills out by midnight.

cheers,
loon

[Air Force Met]

AFM, how many more hours do you think we'll be seeing this "gathering together" before the eye begins to open?

Before midnight is my guess.

[JamesFromMaine2]

I think the eye is already clearing out! you can see it on WV and IR

[Opal storm]

Katrina is now moving wnw.

[Steve]

Just for fun, check out the shortwave IR. Have you ever seen an entire storm explode like this? It looks like an egg splatting on a window or something.

The still (23:15)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR2/20.jpg

The loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

That's one of the craziest fades to blue I've ever seen on shortwave.

Steve

[joseph01]

That's one of the craziest fades to blue I've ever seen on shortwave.

Steve

Very interesting! Thanks for pointing that out.

[PurdueWx80]

Just for fun, check out the shortwave IR. Have you ever seen an entire storm explode like this? It looks like an egg splatting on a window or something.

The still (23:15)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR2/20.jpg

The loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

That's one of the craziest fades to blue I've ever seen on shortwave.

Steve

It only did that because the sun is setting - has very little to do with the storm itself.

[Steve Cosby]

Just for fun, check out the shortwave IR. Have you ever seen an entire storm explode like this? It looks like an egg splatting on a window or something.

Steve

Is that as ominous as I think it is? Or is this a function of sundown?

EDIT: Thank you PurdueWX - your post got up as I was typing mine.

[Mobile Expat]

Just for fun, check out the shortwave IR. Have you ever seen an entire storm explode like this? It looks like an egg splatting on a window or something.


That's one of the craziest fades to blue I've ever seen on shortwave.

Steve

OK, help me out, guys. What does the blue mean?

[Steve]

>>It only did that because the sun is setting - has very little to do with the storm itself.

Whew. Thanks Purdue. It's always good to learn something new every day and I'll be the first one to say I'm far from a know-it-all. Btw, what causes that effect on shortwave? Is it shadow or reflection? Because you could kind of see a change in depth of feel (for lack of a better word) with the last couple of visible loops.

Thanks bra.

Steve

[PurdueWx80]

>>It only did that because the sun is setting - has very little to do with the storm itself.

Whew. Thanks Purdue. It's always good to learn something new every day and I'll be the first one to say I'm far from a know-it-all. Btw, what causes that effect on shortwave? Is it shadow or reflection? Because you could kind of see a change in depth of feel (for lack of a better word) with the last couple of visible loops.

Thanks bra.

Steve

The sun emits shortwave radiation, some of which bounces back to space (reflection off the clouds/atmosphere/etc). The cloud tops suddenly cool once the sun sets because you have much less radiation bouncing back towards the satellite sensor.

[Steve]

>>The sun emits shortwave radiation, some of which bounces back to space (reflection off the clouds/atmosphere/etc). The cloud tops suddenly cool once the sun sets because you have much less radiation bouncing back towards the satellite sensor.

So does this cooling set off the maixums at night or is it just generally indicative of the cooling? I don't usually use that channel loop but have noticed storms often cooling on IR just around sundown around eastern Mexico and often in Texas.

Glad to have some of you experts participating. I know what I know, but I guarantee what I know doesn't even equal 1% of what I don't know.

Steve

[PurdueWx80]

Shortwave infrared is sort of an oxymoron, because the IR has a much longer wavelength than traditional shortwave energy (as in what's emitted from the sun). To be honest, I'm not entirely sure what s/w IR is useful for (will have to search through old class notes), but I do know it represents some of the energy that's emitted from clouds and some of what's reflected (which is obvious by the fact that clouds appear to suddenly cool at sunset when the shortwave energy from the sun leaves the scene).

Traditional IR imagery - clouds really shouldn't cool off to much at sunset on these images although I guess it's possible..I'll have to think about it more. The ground in clear areas will definitely change since the surface temperature cools off rapidly after sunset and warms up rapidly after sunrise (particularly noticeable in desert areas where diurnal/nocturnal swings in temps are significant).