Katrina Northern movement??

[The Sum of all fears]

Did anyone see what i just seen. NHC show's a Jump to the North... thats not good

[skysummit]

At this point, nothings good.

[djtil]

why is that not good? necessarily?

[joseph01]

Link to what you saw, please?

[loon]

dont see it, I see convection firing off to the north, but I've looked at all the floaters and see nothing moving north...new vortex will tell the tale I suppose...

cheers,
loon

[skysummit]

They probably saw the 2140UTC sat image. It showed a "northern jog", but looking at the 2145UTC image, it looks like it's the eye getting defined.

[The Sum of all fears]

Make sure to Check the Trop Fcst Pts on the top right:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Ivanhater]

wobbles will mean EVERYTHING tomorrow

[loon]

Again, forecast points to me appear to look like its still on the mark , but, again, I for one wait for Vortex, as these (repeated, over and over and over, new ones started every hour atleast) threads about north movement, sw movement, west movement, stalls, or anything else are PURELY someones eyes vs someone elses eyes. The vortex knows, we do not, at 7mph, a fluctuatition of eyesize would give the appearance of a movement whichever way you think its going...

cheers,
loon

[djtil]

right on loon...especially when there is no distinct eye on IR to even make a visual with to begin with.

[The Sum of all fears]

Loon,

All Forecasting is Based on the MET Eye and what he see's and think's.

Also you drinking your Special Mix???

[Stormcenter]

Here is a pretty good loop.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[wlfpack81]

Loon,

All Forecasting is Based on the MET Eye and what he see's and think's.

Also you drinking your Special Mix???

Umm little harsh there eh? Expect Katrina to wobble from time to time as it nears the coast. I agree with Loon and others who say go by the vortex messages that come out from the Hurricane Hunters. Uses the fixes from those to get the general heading of the storm.

[loon]

Loon,

All Forecasting is Based on the MET Eye and what he see's and think's.

Also you drinking your Special Mix???

Umm little harsh there eh? Expect Katrina to wobble from time to time as it nears the coast. I agree with Loon and others who say go by the vortex messages that come out from the Hurricane Hunters. Uses the fixes from those to get the general heading of the storm.

Not rude, in another thread I took a shot at guessing the movement since it was the purpose of the thread, to guess, so I mixed up a special brew and guessed.

That said, Sum of all fears, are you a MET? If so, then what you see and think is relative. If not, then it is not.

[loon]

NOW with vortex out, you can say she is moving north for now, possible turn started. However, with the ERC not complete, and I'd like to see how she is headed after this large torque is over with, its pulling up on the NE side right now, which to me explains the Northern component quite a bit.

cheers,
loon

[The Sum of all fears]

not trying be rude and if i came off that way sorry..

I was right, No im not a met but i know a few, I just do this so i stay safe, im not even a wanna be, i rather not be a wanna be but sadly i am...


Loon, i loved that post with the mix i still laughing.... lol

[mvtrucking]

Loon,

All Forecasting is Based on the MET Eye and what he see's and think's.

Also you drinking your Special Mix???

Umm little harsh there eh? Expect Katrina to wobble from time to time as it nears the coast. I agree with Loon and others who say go by the vortex messages that come out from the Hurricane Hunters. Uses the fixes from those to get the general heading of the storm.

What heading do you have it fixed at wlfpack81? It seems WNW.(Rookie though here)

[tw861]

Hard to say if this is a true NW movement or not. For now I'm leaning to this being more of a function of the ERC and when this is finally complete we will get a better idea of the true motion.

FWIW, she doesn't seem to have moved much the last few hours.

[skysummit]

It still looks pretty much due west to me. The blowing up of convection around the center makes it looks like it's heading NW. We really need that eye to clear out so we can tell for sure.

[The Sum of all fears]

I did a Computer modol if it did shift north, FL is in the Range once more.

if its a north jump then all the models will move East,, lol back from west to east ....... o what a world... we could write a book on this one