5pm Track???

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gk1
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5pm Track???

#1 Postby gk1 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:08 pm

Any thoughts??? I suspect, not much changes. Maybe a tad more west.
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deltadog03
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#2 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:09 pm

maybe slightly west
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Ixolib
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Re: 5pm Track???

#3 Postby Ixolib » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:09 pm

gk1 wrote:Any thoughts??? I suspect, not much changes. Maybe a tad more west.


Why more west?
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#4 Postby ohiostorm » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:09 pm

Tad west, maybe higher winds and lower pressure.
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#5 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:12 pm

Higher winds, maybe. SHIPS peaks it at 124 per 18Z, so I doubt they will. Maybe a touch west.
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#6 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:13 pm

Same. Models will continue to fluctuate west and east. Intensity will have to be seen.
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AL Chili Pepper
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#7 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:18 pm

It probably won't change. It looks like it's going to hit their next forecast point on the floater.
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#8 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:20 pm

Higher winds, maybe. 18Z SHIPS only carries 124kt peak now, maybe a tad to the west though.
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#9 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:20 pm

It will be interesting to see what they have to say about the ridge to the north of Katrina and the new trough forecast to approach the gulf coast.

I doubt they will shift the track much, maybe west a tad if the ridge is going to squeeze between the trough and Katrina.

NOLA will probably be forecast to be on the strong side of the storm.
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#10 Postby NastyCat4 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:24 pm

NOLA-unless indications that the storm will clearly miss that area, it is necessary to keep forecasts of high probability in that area, for safety's sake. I doubt there will be a West adjustment, unless there are indications that the turn NORTH will be delayed, or more gradual, taking the storm more West.
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AL Chili Pepper
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#11 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:28 pm

Nimbus wrote:It will be interesting to see what they have to say about the ridge to the north of Katrina and the new trough forecast to approach the gulf coast.

I doubt they will shift the track much, maybe west a tad if the ridge is going to squeeze between the trough and Katrina.

NOLA will probably be forecast to be on the strong side of the storm.


The new NAM's slightly east, but it gets the shakes at the coast. I'm not putting much faith in that model.
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#12 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:35 pm

Shifted the watch west and east...

Plus the pressure is down to 945..
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#13 Postby EDR1222 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:54 pm

Models still remain tightly clustered, although maybe just a tad west. Katrina doesn't seem like she is in a hurry to turn just yet.
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#14 Postby Swimdude » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:59 pm

Question... I've been tracking Katrina all day, like everyone else... But is 945 mb our lowest pressure yet? Or was it less earlier?
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#15 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 4:15 pm

Swimdude wrote:Question... I've been tracking Katrina all day, like everyone else... But is 945 mb our lowest pressure yet? Or was it less earlier?


It was 940 early this morning, I believe.
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