New Model runs..More AGREEMENT!

[Rainband]

Time will tell. LOL Bron

[stormspotter]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_model.html


Mississippi looks like the target.

I agree

[deltadog03]

nogaps is now near lake charles? is that right? where was it at 00z?

[PTrackerLA]

nogaps is now near lake charles? is that right? where was it at 00z?

Where did you see that?!

[wxman57]

I wouldn't necessarily trust those non-dynamic models like BAMM/BAMS/BAMD or LBAR and AH98 on those 6-hour reports. Take a look at the dynamic models:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/katrina39.gif">

[TXWXGAL]

Please post a link to the model runs that you have just posted.
Thanks,

[Rainband]

I wouldn't necessarily trust those non-dynamic models like BAMM/BAMS/BAMD or LBAR and AH98 on those 6-hour reports. Take a look at the dynamic models:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/katrina39.gif">

To be honest Chris. I don't trust anything with this storm. It could wind up anywhere. I am no pro but this has got to be the hardest to forecast storm I have seen since elena. Guess thats what weak steering currents do. Anyone of the North GOM and Texas for that matter should be watching Kat. She seems to have a mind of her own.

[Air Force Met]

I wouldn't necessarily trust those non-dynamic models like BAMM/BAMS/BAMD or LBAR and AH98 on those 6-hour reports. Take a look at the dynamic models:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/katrina39.gif">

Thanks for posting that...I was just about to comment.

For the amatuers: Remember...those models that always get posted ...like on this new thread...are usually the ones that are less reliable in these situations...like the BAM(S)....LBAR...AH98. Just must look at the dynamic models. The models that are pointing towards MS right now are the LEAST reliable of the models. For instance...the 12z GFS has it moving right over NOLA...

And yes...the 12z run of NOGAPS has it a lot further west.

[Stratosphere747]

Question for AFM or 57....

Is there any chance that the trough does not pick up Katrina and she continues to move west or even slows and begins to stall?

[wxman57]

12Z GFDL just out. Tracks inland across western New Orleans:

HURRICANE KATRINA 12L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 24.4 84.6 270./ 6.0
6 24.6 85.4 282./ 7.0
12 24.9 86.2 294./ 8.4
18 25.5 87.0 306./ 8.9
24 26.2 88.2 303./13.1
30 27.0 89.0 309./10.6
36 27.6 89.6 319./ 8.7
42 28.5 90.1 332./ 9.4
48 29.6 90.3 349./11.6
54 30.7 90.5 348./10.9
60 31.7 90.5 3./10.0
66 32.5 90.3 8./ 8.4
72 33.8 90.0 14./13.3
78 35.1 89.6 20./13.4
84 36.3 89.2 18./12.0
90 37.3 88.8 19./10.0
96 38.5 88.1 33./13.7
102 39.5 87.4 35./11.3
108 40.5 86.1 52./13.5
114 41.5 84.6 55./15.8
120 43.0 82.6 54./20.6
126 44.0 81.1 57./14.8

[wxman57]

Question for AFM or 57....

Is there any chance that the trough does not pick up Katrina and she continues to move west or even slows and begins to stall?

We talked about that in the office yesterday. If the window shuts and Katrina is left adrift, the ridge could build to the north and it could continue westward. But I think with such strong model agreement that such a scenario is unlikely.

It's amazing that the New Orleans folks always get so excited and evacuate for hurricanes that are not predicted to hit them, and when faced with a true catastrophe, they act like nothing is happening.

[Rainband]

I wouldn't necessarily trust those non-dynamic models like BAMM/BAMS/BAMD or LBAR and AH98 on those 6-hour reports. Take a look at the dynamic models:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/katrina39.gif">

Thanks for posting that...I was just about to comment.

For the amatuers: Remember...those models that always get posted ...like on this new thread...are usually the ones that are less reliable in these situations...like the BAM(S)....LBAR...AH98. Just must look at the dynamic models. The models that are pointing towards MS right now are the LEAST reliable of the models. For instance...the 12z GFS has it moving right over NOLA...

And yes...the 12z run of NOGAPS has it a lot further west.

I keep hearing how useless the bam(s) LBAR and AH98 are. Why are they included in the runs and have they ever been right. I guess I am just wondering why they are in the package if they are useless. I have never read a good post about them. Maybe they shouldn't even include them in the runs?? Do they have a different purpose other than movement?? Thanks. I know you guys are busy but I was just curious.

[Derecho]

I keep hearing how useless the bam(s) LBAR and AH98 are. Why are they included in the runs and have they ever been right. I guess I am just wondering why they are in the package if they are useless. I have never read a good post about them. Maybe they shouldn't even include them in the runs?? Do they have a different purpose other than movement?? Thanks. I know you guys are busy but I was just curious.

Eh, I wonder why they're still run myself.

They exist because they're very, very, very, very old; During the 70s and 80s their predecessors were about all NHC had. And they use minimal computer resources to run since they're so simplistic.

[Rainband]

[quote="RainbandI keep hearing how useless the bam(s) LBAR and AH98 are. Why are they included in the runs and have they ever been right. I guess I am just wondering why they are in the package if they are useless. I have never read a good post about them. Maybe they shouldn't even include them in the runs?? Do they have a different purpose other than movement?? Thanks. I know you guys are busy but I was just curious.

Eh, I wonder why they're still run myself.

They exist because they're very, very, very, very old; During the 70s and 80s their predecessors were about all NHC had. And they use minimal computer resources to run since they're so simplistic.[/quote]They should remove them or update them. They are confusing to the track when looking at the spag model plots.If someone doesn't know they are useless they may put more faith in them then need be. Thanks for the response derecho

[WindRunner]

[quote=Amanzi]Someone wants a Taco... really bad. LOL.[/quote]

That just made my day.

[wxman57]

I keep hearing how useless the bam(s) LBAR and AH98 are. Why are they included in the runs and have they ever been right. I guess I am just wondering why they are in the package if they are useless. I have never read a good post about them. Maybe they shouldn't even include them in the runs?? Do they have a different purpose other than movement?? Thanks. I know you guys are busy but I was just curious.

The BAMs are designed as just basic flow pattern models that are useful as a first guess for tropical disturbances south of 20N in the deep tropical Atlantic, where the flow is relatively homogeneous. Once north of 18N-20N, there are moving fronts/trofs/ridges that the BAMs do not take into consideration. They should not be used north of the deep tropics, out from beneath the Bermuda high.


Thanks Chris. Thats what I was looking for

[AL Chili Pepper]

From the UKMet 12Z, intensifying rapidly near the coast.

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 27.08.2005 24.5N 84.4W STRONG

00UTC 28.08.2005 24.8N 85.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.08.2005 25.5N 87.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 29.08.2005 26.5N 89.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.08.2005 28.5N 89.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 30.08.2005 30.4N 89.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 30.08.2005 33.1N 88.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.08.2005 35.6N 85.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 31.08.2005 38.5N 82.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPDILY

00UTC 01.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[Steve]

You'd be surprised 57. The governor is on with all the Jefferson Parish and state officials. They're trying to get as many people out before they kick in contraflow around 4 o'clock. The I-10 in Jefferson is jam packed and has been. I think most people are taking the threat very seriously and certainly moreso now than they were this morning or yesterday. It was all a matter of when the officials came out with the press conferences and information. FWIW, they seem to have their ducks in a row and are coordinating with MS and AL officials (State Police, National Guard) and also have been in contact with the White House. Governor Blanco said the President has pledged assistance as it is required and requested.

So things are on stand-by with some people already out, more to follow later, others to head out tonight or tomorrow or even tomorrow evening. Based on timing, that should allow everyone who wants to get out to do so. There will be inconveniences but people have to be responsible for themselves too.

Steve

[Steve]

Also, here is a link to traffic cams if anyone is interested.

http://www.dotd.state.la.us/press/traff ... no_cameras

Check out the I-10 in Metairie. It's bumper to bumper so either we're getting a good response from the low-lying areas or people here in Jefferson are taking the opportunity to get out now.

Steve

[goodlife]

It's amazing that the New Orleans folks always get so excited and evacuate for hurricanes that are not predicted to hit them, and when faced with a true catastrophe, they act like nothing is happening.[/quote]x

Exactly.....the local news channels haven't helped the situation any. It's been very frustrating listening to some of our local mets today.