UNOFFICIAL..Katrina #9; 125kts in Louisiana in 48 hours

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 9:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... trina.html

Forecast does happen to take the system directly over New Orleans, but don't focus on the exact forecast line...landfall in LA seeming quite likely now, of course, if Katrina keeps outrunning the forecast points to the west (if you want to see out of curiosity compare the NHC 11AM 12 hour position to the current position) then Texas will end up in the cone before the day is over. Therefore, I'm afraid I may still be a little too far right with this forecast. Nonetheless, a powerful hurricane is likely somewhere, and that is the bottom line; all of the northern Gulf Coast should watch this carefully.

Track graphic coming in the next half hour.

Scott

[canegrl04]

125knots = 144 mph Poor folks in New Orleans

[ncweatherwizard]

Track graphics up for 1:30PM.

[gatorcane]

Won't be NOLA, SW LA or NE Texas area...

[jasons2k]

NE Texas = Texarkana, Tyler, Longview

SE Texas = Beamont, Port Arthur, Galveston aka Upper Texas Coast

[gatorcane]

SW LA or SE Texas northern coast.

[Scorpion]

Why boca_chris?

[gatorcane]

Why boca_chris?

The storm is still feeling the strong ridge to the north. You can see this because it still appears to be getting "squished" where more of the convection is on the lower half of the storm.

In addition, the type of turn the NHC predicts usually happens a little after the storm starts to elongate on a NW/SE axis. That is clearly not happening yet....when you start to see this then the turn should be happening..

I expect the forecast track to shift about 50-100 miles left of the 11am advisory.

[shaggy]

I have to agree with boca_chris the more westward track this storm has taken and is continuing to take is west and south of the forecast track so you have to go with what the storm is doing not what it is suppose to do and that means the track should shift left as the storm continues to go more west of the NHC track which ( Thur 5 p.m. the NHC 48hr plot was 27.0 N and 83.7 W current position is 24.5 N and 85.4W well south) has been pretty off on where and when the "turn" will happen. Also while this storm appears to be very powerful I would think the chances of a landfalling strong cat 4 or cat 5 is unlikely as there is a reason there have only been a handfull over the years. It is hard for a storm to maintain that kind of intensity while this is not to say this storm will not hit as a cat 5 look at Ivan, Lili, Opal, Dennis all cat 4 or 5 storms that came in Cat 3 or lower.