And the northward movement has begun.

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
The Expert

#21 Postby The Expert » Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:24 am

linkerweather wrote:this topic is silly, just look at the latitude of the last few advisories. There is a northerly component. Also, the NHC did mention in the discussion that it is moving at 275 degrees which is north of due west.


Thank you, what do you NHC people have to say after that?
Last edited by The Expert on Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

THead
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 790
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:09 pm
Location: Lauderhill, Fla./Jefferson, Ga.

#22 Postby THead » Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:25 am

The Expert wrote:
stormie_skies wrote:I think there are about 15 threads created in the last 6 hours with "northerly" or "turn" in the title. You could have always just contributed to one of them. :wink:

That said, the NHC has Kat moving west at 7 mph in their 11 am update. Perhaps you would like to take your "wobbly" case up with them???


First of all, the NHC advisory is typed sometime around 9:35 central for the 10AM advisory. The movement had not yet begun at that point. Also, if you take the NHC's word for everything, I feel sorry for you.


I would take the NHC's word for alot of things..but....they seem to be very, very careful (read slow) about making direction changes in their advisories. I'm guessing they have their good reasons for that....along with what someone already mentioned, a time lag in the advisories. While we are looking at real time data and analyzing every wobble.
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#23 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:25 am

ivanhater wrote:steve lyons is saying the same thing...so the thread is correct


You misunderstand him. He's showing the storm feeling the influence of the trough getting ready to pick it up. It hasn't really started the north turn yet but it might soon.
0 likes   

jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#24 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:25 am

The Expert wrote:
linkerweather wrote:this topic is silly, just look at the latitude of the last few advisories. There is a northerly component. Also, the NHC did mention in the discussion that it is moving at 275 degrees which is north of due west.


Thank you, what do you NHC whores have to say after that?

NO matter the side of the issue you are on...These comments should not stand on this board.
0 likes   

User avatar
stormie_skies
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3318
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 9:25 pm
Location: League City, TX

#25 Postby stormie_skies » Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:27 am

The Expert wrote:
stormie_skies wrote:I think there are about 15 threads created in the last 6 hours with "northerly" or "turn" in the title. You could have always just contributed to one of them. :wink:

That said, the NHC has Kat moving west at 7 mph in their 11 am update. Perhaps you would like to take your "wobbly" case up with them???


First of all, the NHC advisory is typed sometime around 9:35 central for the 10AM advisory. The movement had not yet begun at that point. Also, if you take the NHC's word for everything, I feel sorry for you.


Silly me for taking the NHC's word over yours (do I know you?), or over that of someone at TWC.... :roll:

I think a thread has been posted every hour for the last 36 hours stating unequivically that "THIS is the turn!!! Its started!!!" And it hasn't. They were wobbles. That's it. So excuse me for being skeptical, but I would like more than 2 radar frames and the word of TWC before I believe that any sort of turn has been made.

And for the record, I hope and pray that the people on the northern Gulf Coast are taking the NHC's word....they (and we) should all be placing our trust in the hands of experts, instead of in the hands of random message board posters... :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11166
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#26 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:27 am

Thunder44 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:steve lyons is saying the same thing...so the thread is correct


You misunderstand him. He's showing the storm feeling the influence of the trough getting ready to pick it up. It hasn't really started the north turn yet but it might soon.


he said "north of due west" and the line on the center clearly showed wnw at the end...whether it will continue, i can not say...but just getting the latest info out
0 likes   

rtd2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1183
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:45 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#27 Postby rtd2 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:28 am

jkt21787 wrote:
The Expert wrote:
linkerweather wrote:this topic is silly, just look at the latitude of the last few advisories. There is a northerly component. Also, the NHC did mention in the discussion that it is moving at 275 degrees which is north of due west.


Thank you, what do you NHC whores have to say after that?

NO matter the side of the issue you are on...These comments should not stand on this board.



Agreed...Just Give the Mods a Minute there is alot of posting going on Now and it will get even more busy.
0 likes   

jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#28 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:29 am

rtd2 wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
The Expert wrote:
linkerweather wrote:this topic is silly, just look at the latitude of the last few advisories. There is a northerly component. Also, the NHC did mention in the discussion that it is moving at 275 degrees which is north of due west.


Thank you, what do you NHC whores have to say after that?

NO matter the side of the issue you are on...These comments should not stand on this board.



Agreed...Just Give the Mods a Minute there is alot of posting going on Now and it will get even more busy.

He edited it but I still have what was orginally posted. That was just so uncalled for and should require some mod action, IMHO.
0 likes   

The Expert

#29 Postby The Expert » Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:29 am

stormie_skies wrote:
The Expert wrote:
stormie_skies wrote:I think there are about 15 threads created in the last 6 hours with "northerly" or "turn" in the title. You could have always just contributed to one of them. :wink:

That said, the NHC has Kat moving west at 7 mph in their 11 am update. Perhaps you would like to take your "wobbly" case up with them???


First of all, the NHC advisory is typed sometime around 9:35 central for the 10AM advisory. The movement had not yet begun at that point. Also, if you take the NHC's word for everything, I feel sorry for you.


Silly me for taking the NHC's word over yours (do I know you?), or over that of someone at TWC.... :roll:

I think a thread has been posted every hour for the last 36 hours stating unequivically that "THIS is the turn!!! Its started!!!" And it hasn't. They were wobbles. That's it. So excuse me for being skeptical, but I would like more than 2 radar frames and the word of TWC before I believe that any sort of turn has been made.

And for the record, I hope and pray that the people on the northern Gulf Coast are taking the NHC's word....they (and we) should all be placing our trust in the hands of experts, instead of in the hands of random message board posters... :wink:


Um... yeah I don't recall me calling it for landfall at certain area... NHC's track is fine.
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#30 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:32 am

ivanhater wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:steve lyons is saying the same thing...so the thread is correct


You misunderstand him. He's showing the storm feeling the influence of the trough getting ready to pick it up. It hasn't really started the north turn yet but it might soon.


he said "north of due west" and the line on the center clearly showed wnw at the end...whether it will continue, i can not say...but just getting the latest info out


Well, we don't know if it's actual motion now, or just a wobble. So to say that the northward turn has begun is premature. And it's going to be a gradual turn to the north, not a sharp one. A WNW motion is forecasted.
0 likes   

The Expert

#31 Postby The Expert » Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:33 am

Thunder44 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:steve lyons is saying the same thing...so the thread is correct


You misunderstand him. He's showing the storm feeling the influence of the trough getting ready to pick it up. It hasn't really started the north turn yet but it might soon.


he said "north of due west" and the line on the center clearly showed wnw at the end...whether it will continue, i can not say...but just getting the latest info out


Well, we don't know if it's actual motion now, or just a wobble. So to say that the northward turn has begun is premature. And it's going to be a gradual turn to the north, not a sharp one. A WNW motion is forecasted.


I'm glad you can tell the future. Go look at some old tracks of Isidore.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11166
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#32 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:33 am

Thunder44 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:steve lyons is saying the same thing...so the thread is correct


You misunderstand him. He's showing the storm feeling the influence of the trough getting ready to pick it up. It hasn't really started the north turn yet but it might soon.


he said "north of due west" and the line on the center clearly showed wnw at the end...whether it will continue, i can not say...but just getting the latest info out


Well, we don't know if it's actual motion now, or just a wobble. So to say that the northward turn has begun is premature. And it's going to be a gradual turn to the north, not a sharp one. A WNW motion is forecasted.



i agree. but the thread is movement, not turn
0 likes   

THead
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 790
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:09 pm
Location: Lauderhill, Fla./Jefferson, Ga.

#33 Postby THead » Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:34 am

jkt21787 wrote:
rtd2 wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
The Expert wrote:
linkerweather wrote:this topic is silly, just look at the latitude of the last few advisories. There is a northerly component. Also, the NHC did mention in the discussion that it is moving at 275 degrees which is north of due west.


Thank you, what do you NHC whores have to say after that?

NO matter the side of the issue you are on...These comments should not stand on this board.



Agreed...Just Give the Mods a Minute there is alot of posting going on Now and it will get even more busy.

He edited it but I still have what was orginally posted. That was just so uncalled for and should require some mod action, IMHO.


I'm sorry, but what he originally posted was just good comedy, best laugh I've had all day.
0 likes   

soonertwister
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1091
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 2:52 pm

#34 Postby soonertwister » Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:35 am

To put the 275 degree movement into perspective, while that is slightly north of due west, for all practical purposes west is an accurate statement for the motion of the storm.

At Katrina's current speed, movement at 275 degrees means a northerly motion of less than 3000 feet per hour, or under 13 miles in 24 hours. If Katrina turned to 295-300, the northerly component would be dramatically larger.

By far, most of the northern movement will likely occur in the second half of the time frame between now and landfall, which is why the previous WSW to W movement has had such a dramatic impact on the official forecast path.
0 likes   

jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#35 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:36 am

THead wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
rtd2 wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
The Expert wrote:
linkerweather wrote:this topic is silly, just look at the latitude of the last few advisories. There is a northerly component. Also, the NHC did mention in the discussion that it is moving at 275 degrees which is north of due west.


Thank you, what do you NHC whores have to say after that?

NO matter the side of the issue you are on...These comments should not stand on this board.



Agreed...Just Give the Mods a Minute there is alot of posting going on Now and it will get even more busy.

He edited it but I still have what was orginally posted. That was just so uncalled for and should require some mod action, IMHO.


I'm sorry, but what he originally posted was just good comedy, best laugh I've had all day.

Maybe so. I've been up for about 10 minutes so I'm still a little cranky and ready to go off anybody! :)
0 likes   

The Expert

#36 Postby The Expert » Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:38 am

Oh, do you guys think I can change it back?
0 likes   

Seadootoo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 36
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Jun 10, 2003 10:07 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, Texas

#37 Postby Seadootoo » Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:05 am

The Expert wrote:Oh, do you guys think I can change it back?




Well........you are The Expert, you should be able to figure it out....
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#38 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:06 am

i give up...im gonna stop posting in here
0 likes   

NorthGaWeather

#39 Postby NorthGaWeather » Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:16 am

The Expert wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:steve lyons is saying the same thing...so the thread is correct


You misunderstand him. He's showing the storm feeling the influence of the trough getting ready to pick it up. It hasn't really started the north turn yet but it might soon.


he said "north of due west" and the line on the center clearly showed wnw at the end...whether it will continue, i can not say...but just getting the latest info out


Well, we don't know if it's actual motion now, or just a wobble. So to say that the northward turn has begun is premature. And it's going to be a gradual turn to the north, not a sharp one. A WNW motion is forecasted.


I'm glad you can tell the future. Go look at some old tracks of Isidore.


When did this storm turn into Isidore?
0 likes   

User avatar
loon
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 655
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 4:50 pm
Location: Downtown Houston

#40 Postby loon » Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:17 am

I know this is against the norm, but it sure looks like everything to her north is still moving south, I don't see what is pulling her north, except a bit of torque movement, but time will tell. I just don't see how it can move into that flow. Time will tell, and I'm not doubting the turn, so save your bashing for someone who will get offended by it =]

cheers,
loon
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Wein and 125 guests