Katrina intensity "Fluctuating"?

[otowntiger]

On IR sat. she doesn't seem as impressive as earlier this morning. The eye has filled in and convection appears to have shrunk slightly. I'm no met., just amateur observation. Any professional mets have an opinion?

[wjs3]

Not a prefessional met, but looks like an eyewall repacement cycle. Normal in hurricanes as they ramp up or sustain.

[rainstorm]

god may be answering our prayers today. it looks to me as if dry air is hitting it hard

[otowntiger]

god may be answering our prayers today. it looks to me as if dry air is hitting it hard

That would be great and quite a relief for everyone if that is happening. But once again if it is significanly affected in that way unexpected weakening, isn't it pitiful that the NHC or anyone else for that matter are clueless?

[krysof]

It's really expanding though and the ragged look seems to be filling in now, getting back into gear.

[Dmetal81]

Theres no reasonable explanation for the sudden ragged appearance other than eyewall replacement cycle. Dry air would have caused a weakening and decrease in convection, which has not happene. If anything, she seems to be expanding her outflow still. A few more hours will be telling.....

[wjs3]

Agree Dmetal. Water vapor imagery shows that she's in a nice envelope of moisture. ERC makes the most sense to me too.

[wxmann_91]

EWRC. Look closely on the latest frame and one will see an inner eyewall and an outer eyewall, in between those is the moat.

[djtil]

isn't it pitiful that the NHC or anyone else for that matter are clueless?

lol......speaking of clueless.

[otowntiger]

isn't it pitiful that the NHC or anyone else for that matter are clueless?

lol......speaking of clueless.

I'm speaking of intensity forecasting, which they (NHC) readily admit is still a mystery. I am hardly clueless. I'm a veteran of a number of storms and have been tracking them since I was in the 5th grade in Baton Rouge, thats nearly 30 years of avid storm watching. My comment still stands that IF this storm were to weaken unexpectedly (and that has happenned time and time again with these north gulf coast landfalling hurricanes) it is a shame that the NHC still has no clue as to why storms strengthen suddenly or weaken.

[inotherwords]

I don't think that makes the NHC "clueless," I just think it proves that hurricanes and weather prediction is not an exact science and that there are some things we don't fully understand yet.

"Clueless" insinuates stupidity. I think that's a bad choice of words here, but that you probably didn't mean it that way.

[oneness]

11 AM wind projection

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 29P_sm.gif

[truballer#1]

shows very strong cat.4 close to cat.5

[raynpa]

looking ragged right now

[oneness]

Stagnating a little, though lots of deep convection in the outer bands.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

EDIT: long link removed, shorter link inserted

[txwatcher91]

EWRC. Look closely on the latest frame and one will see an inner eyewall and an outer eyewall, in between those is the moat.

Yep, definately an Eyewall replacement cycle. Look at this visible loop, and you can see the old eye fade away and the new one taking its place.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

A well defined eye is possible by this afternoon IMO.

[oneness]

Looks like there's a well defined eye already under this new outflow pulse emerging from the core and beginning to wisp-off the convective tops around the core. You can see the distinct arc-band of upper-level wispy clouds moving out and radially away from the system, from when this ERC collapse started.

[krysof]

Once its completed expect Katrina to strenghten and look better than ever.

[oneness]

Just building-up and clearing its throat for a new rapid spin cycle. Should get some good images as the shadows get longer again.