SHIPS MODEL 127kts (ALL models shift east)

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drezee
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SHIPS MODEL 127kts (ALL models shift east)

#1 Postby drezee » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:38 am

622
WHXX01 KWBC 271228
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE KATRINA (AL122005) ON 20050827 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050827 1200 050828 0000 050828 1200 050829 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.4N 84.6W 24.7N 86.0W 25.2N 87.4W 26.3N 88.6W
BAMM 24.4N 84.6W 24.8N 85.9W 25.6N 87.4W 26.7N 88.7W
A98E 24.4N 84.6W 24.7N 85.8W 25.3N 86.8W 26.8N 87.4W
LBAR 24.4N 84.6W 24.9N 85.9W 25.7N 87.4W 27.2N 88.9W
SHIP 100KTS 108KTS 114KTS 122KTS
DSHP 100KTS 108KTS 114KTS 122KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050829 1200 050830 1200 050831 1200 050901 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.0N 89.4W 33.9N 87.4W 40.7N 80.9W 46.9N 69.8W
BAMM 28.3N 89.4W 33.7N 87.1W 39.9N 80.5W 45.4N 70.1W
A98E 30.0N 87.7W 36.7N 84.1W 45.6N 75.9W 52.3N 66.9W
LBAR 29.0N 89.6W 33.7N 87.8W 39.0N 80.3W 46.3N 67.8W
SHIP 127KTS 119KTS 98KTS 70KTS
DSHP 127KTS 49KTS 29KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.4N LONCUR = 84.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 24.7N LONM12 = 83.3W DIRM12 = 249DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 25.2N LONM24 = 81.9W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 90KT
CENPRS = 940MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 130NM
Last edited by drezee on Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:41 am

whoa...is that a shift east?????
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#3 Postby NorthGaWeather » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:43 am

ivanhater wrote:whoa...is that a shift east?????


I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
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#4 Postby drezee » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:43 am

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#5 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:44 am

NorthGaWeather wrote:
ivanhater wrote:whoa...is that a shift east?????


I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.


me too my friend
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#6 Postby loon » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:44 am

ivanhater wrote:whoa...is that a shift east?????



Yes, its coming right for you, leave town now...right now would be good.

cheers,
loon
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#7 Postby BamaMan » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:46 am

Man,these models are definitely getting a good fix on Katrina it appears. Doesnt look too good for LA-FL Panhandle. I hope everyone is starting their preparations . . . NOW !!!!
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#8 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:46 am

loon wrote:
ivanhater wrote:whoa...is that a shift east?????



Yes, its coming right for you, leave town now...right now would be good.

cheers,
loon



omg are you being sarcastic... if you are its ok
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#9 Postby drezee » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:47 am

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#10 Postby gulfcoastdave » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:49 am

As I said earlier this AM in post. There would be a shift east by models. We all need to be ready on the central gulfcoast from new orleans to destin......... a woobble here and there adds up down the road. Do not follow the line has been told by others but the cone.
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#11 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:50 am

Is it me or is this storm getting huge???
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#12 Postby NorthGaWeather » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:52 am

gulfcoastdave wrote:As I said earlier this AM in post. There would be a shift east by models. We all need to be ready on the central gulfcoast from new orleans to destin......... a woobble here and there adds up down the road. Do not follow the line has been told by others but the cone.


Don't hug one model run either.
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#13 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:54 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Is it me or is this storm getting huge???


No, recon shows that hurricane is getting larger. I'm not suprised at all at the shift east. Models have been changing making shifts like this all season. Of course people are going to start making a big deal out of this.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#14 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:54 am

These forecast models are going to do these funky things.
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#15 Postby Hyperstorm » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:55 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Is it me or is this storm getting huge???


This was started to be seen last evening when the storm was dragging the afternoon thunderstorms from Florida! Wind field is expanding, so the maximum sustained winds have been lagging behind the pressure drop for so long.
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#16 Postby skysummit » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:55 am

I wouldn't be surprised if the models start splitting again and not be so together.
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#17 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:59 am

another thing too....the northern side looks crummy right now...and just looked at the water vapor...the ridge is still supressing this right now..
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#18 Postby gulfcoastdave » Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:59 am

I agree with that NorthGaWeather


I am not stating what I am saying on one model. If we would all remember yesterday we all thought storm would hit big bend area and then the path shifted west by a large degree. All I am just going with a more of a middle path of the two. The area that I posted is in the cone area.

I just hate to see everyone jump and say it's only new orleans thats under the gun.........we all need to remember how the storms can woobble one way or the other and every woobble adds up down the road. Lets all be ready
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#19 Postby drezee » Sat Aug 27, 2005 8:39 am

27/1145 UTC 24.5N 84.6W T6.0/6.0 KATRINA

.1 N
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#20 Postby loon » Sat Aug 27, 2005 8:49 am

I believe the .1N is due to her intensifying...be hard to tell until recon does another Vortex
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