New GFDL and 6z GFS shift east

[rockyman]

New GFDL (dark blue line):



6z GFS:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart.do?username=guest&lat=40.223186&width=800&chartTypeId=chart11&height=600&watch=1125122400000&requestId=1124992704992.1105.7&lon=-109.943695&projection=Mercator&name=NCEP_GFS_6_180%3AGlobal_One_Degree&span=9465245.0&tau=3600[/url]

[Ivanhater]

and so the east shift begins

[TampaFl]

[NorthGaWeather]

Also has it moving WNW at this time, which it isn't. There isn't going to be a huge shift IMO, the models have clearly underestimated the ridge. I wouldn't be surprised to see a landfall further West into LA.

[Big-Iguana]

If it hit Nola it would really slam the economy...more east the better.

[caneman]

Also has it moving WNW at this time, which it isn't. There isn't going to be a huge shift IMO, the models have clearly underestimated the ridge. I wouldn't be surprised to see a landfall further West into LA.

the turn does appear to have begun

[dhweather]

Wait for the 12Z runs, the 06Z and the 18Z runs are based upon the
00Z and 12Z runs, and more subject to errors.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I completely agree with you NorthGaWeather. I think the UKMET at least. The LBAR looks the best to me right now. I just don't see her turning wnw so soon and then have such a sharp turn in the latter period. I think much more gradual like the LBAR is showing.

[Steve]

NHC acknowledges 'west' which is obviously different from WSW. But it's still at 24.4. The key is how Katrina turns

Steve

[Ivanhater]

NHC acknowledges 'west' which is obviously different from WSW. But it's still at 24.4. The key is how Katrina turns

Steve

yes, today is a very key day

[NorthGaWeather]

Also has it moving WNW at this time, which it isn't. There isn't going to be a huge shift IMO, the models have clearly underestimated the ridge. I wouldn't be surprised to see a landfall further West into LA.

the turn does appear to have begun

Appears is the key word. People have been saying the turn has started since last night. For the GFDL to verify Katrina would be moving WNW right now and she isn't.

[caneman]

Also has it moving WNW at this time, which it isn't. There isn't going to be a huge shift IMO, the models have clearly underestimated the ridge. I wouldn't be surprised to see a landfall further West into LA.

the turn does appear to have begun

Appears is the key word. People have been saying the turn has started since last night. For the GFDL to verify Katrina would be moving WNW right now and she isn't.

the gfdl hs been pretty spot on so far. No reason to doubt them now.

[Ivanhater]

well models are not in as good agreement as before...it was a little weird for them to be anyway

[NorthGaWeather]

Also has it moving WNW at this time, which it isn't. There isn't going to be a huge shift IMO, the models have clearly underestimated the ridge. I wouldn't be surprised to see a landfall further West into LA.

the turn does appear to have begun

Appears is the key word. People have been saying the turn has started since last night. For the GFDL to verify Katrina would be moving WNW right now and she isn't.

the gfdl hs been pretty spot on so far. No reason to doubt them now.

Well the Hurricane is moving due West and the GFDL has a solid WNW motion right now. Pretty obvious to me it will pass South of the GFDL track in the short term.

[Dean4Storms]

06 GFS run and track with SST's..........Scroll Down once on page.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 06/10.html

[rockyman]

Also has it moving WNW at this time, which it isn't. There isn't going to be a huge shift IMO, the models have clearly underestimated the ridge. I wouldn't be surprised to see a landfall further West into LA.

the turn does appear to have begun

Appears is the key word. People have been saying the turn has started since last night. For the GFDL to verify Katrina would be moving WNW right now and she isn't.

the gfdl hs been pretty spot on so far. No reason to doubt them now.

Well the Hurricane is moving due West and the GFDL has a solid WNW motion right now. Pretty obvious to me it will pass South of the GFDL track in the short term.

I've noticed that the GFDL seems to catch ideas early, but often stumbles out of the gate (first 12 hours)...Like when it predicted the SW movement before MIA when the other models insisted on turning the system WNW. Katrina did not turn and go south of Miami, but Katrina did turn southwest a little later.

[NorthGaWeather]

Also has it moving WNW at this time, which it isn't. There isn't going to be a huge shift IMO, the models have clearly underestimated the ridge. I wouldn't be surprised to see a landfall further West into LA.

the turn does appear to have begun

Appears is the key word. People have been saying the turn has started since last night. For the GFDL to verify Katrina would be moving WNW right now and she isn't.

the gfdl hs been pretty spot on so far. No reason to doubt them now.

Well the Hurricane is moving due West and the GFDL has a solid WNW motion right now. Pretty obvious to me it will pass South of the GFDL track in the short term.

I've noticed that the GFDL seems to catch ideas early, but often stumbles out of the gate (first 12 hours)...Like when it predicted the SW movement before MIA when the other models insisted on turning the system WNW. Katrina did not turn and go south of Miami, but Katrina did turn southwest a little later.

Well I do agree with the landfall position but your right its a little slow to catch on.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Also remember a 260 degree heading compared to 270 is not what i consider a turn either. As long as she continues west the worse it will be. Lets see when the actual 280 or 285 motion is acknowledged then we can talk about a turn. The NHC say it could be another 24 hours before gradual wnw movement and that would put Katrina on her current speed about 170 miles further west and then still have to curve to the north. I hope everyone west of New Orleans will get prepared for the worse.

[PTPatrick]

well, i can say this...there will be no more major shift east for at least the day regardless of the models. This thing means business for NOLA to Mobile but the hurricane center in a lot of ways has an obligation to create a track that will prompt a REAL evacuation of New Orleans. If all they see is a track over Hancock county mississippi, people will not leave. on the other hand, if they paint a track right into NOLA, then every county from Jefferson parish to mobile county will be evacuated. And "if" a wobble east does happen at the last minute, the cities of gulfport, biloxi, and pascagoula, "should" be ready anyway.

[deltadog03]

ok, looks like the GFDL shows a 290 heading right now....ummmmm no....its still around 265-270 or so, first glance...