Residents of New Orleans, Please Read

[Brent]

Here's a slosh inundation map for the greater New Orleans area. I set it for Cat 4 moving to the north through the area. Check out the 20-21 foot deep surge into New Orleans.

WOW...

[johngaltfla]

Just so everyone in New Orleans understands the seriousness of the situation here is a quote from Mark Sudduth at Hurricanetrack.com.

"I am wrapping things up here in Naples and will travel north tomorrow morning. My plans are still up in the air. Let me say this: I will NOT go to New Orleans if Katrina makes landfall there as a category three or four. I am not going to put myself in that kind of danger. There is a chance I could get in and place some equipment- but it is not worth the risk of not being able to get out. So- I will be watching the future track of this potentially historic hurricane very closely."

Now if anyone has ever followed Mark's missions you will know that normally he and his team do whatever they can to get into the eye of the storm to gather research. Just hearing him say that he would not go to New Orleans for the landfall is enough to give me the chills. I have met Mark in person and read many of his reports. He takes his work very seriously. I don't recall a time when I have read his reports that he seemed so concerned.

SouthFLTropics

I do follow his work. And for him to say that is a statement far more impactful than anything TWC or NHC could warn or say. If you live there, get out.

[baygirl_1]

Steve--
Are you leaving with your wife and kids this time? I know in the past you've gotten them out and ridden it out yourself. Please go with them this time.

[dhweather]

Here are the models just so everyone in NOLA realizes the threat that is now apparent...

HOLY SH!@#!@#!@$#!@$!$@#!$%#@$

I'm either taking a direct hit from a cat 4/5 or being in the NE quad of it.

[KatDaddy]

This is a very serious and dangeous situation. Watching very closely along the Upper TX Coast. Another shift or two West could make us a little jittery. Mass evacuations should begin today across SE LA. This could be the worst case scenario

[dhweather]

Here's a slosh inundation map for the greater New Orleans area. I set it for Cat 4 moving to the north through the area. Check out the 20-21 foot deep surge into New Orleans.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sloshnewcat4.gif">

Um, that 21.7 in the top right ofthe picture - Hancock County, MS, well,
that's here!

Now, my place is on the highest elevation on the coast, 60 feet or so,
surge isn't the issue. WIND IS.

[skysummit]

Evacuations NEED to begin soon. Has anyone in SELA heard anything yet? I cannot believe the "Big One" we've been hearing about for so many years may actually be happening.

[cajungal]

I can believe it. There is still a chance of it going east to MS, but still too close for comfort. It could go either way. Models trended a tad bit back to the east again this morning.

[soonertwister]

I don't think most people are even capable of envisioning how bad things would be around NOLA if a cat 4-5 came right through the city. As bad as the hurricane itself would be, things would be infinitely worse after the storm. If you can envision hell, that is what NOLA would be in the worst case scenario. No sane person on the planet would want to be caught there.

[Steve]

The invalid and needy are part of the planning for the Phase I evacuations. They don't really tell you where they take them, but they are accounted for while the low lying areas are told to get out. This is bizarre. I just woke up (planned for 3 hours, only slept two) from dreaming I was living somewhere else, it was Saturday morning. The wife and I surveyed our place and noticed there was nothing but windows in every direction and that were going to have to leave. That was an odd dream.

Steve

[NorthGaWeather]

I can believe it. There is still a chance of it going east to MS, but still too close for comfort. It could go either way. Models trended a tad bit back to the east again this morning.

Yeah, however they have been clearly under-estimating the ridge.

[dhweather]

Much like with terrorism, you only have to be wrong once.


Time to get out of New Orleans.

[flightpath]

sorry, can't leave now. lots of work to do yet
maybe tonight just up to Hammond

[drezee]

good morning:

[storms in NC]

sorry, can't leave now. lots of work to do yet
maybe tonight just up to Hammond

Hammond? that is not to far from NOLA I would go up into Mississippi.

[HurryKane]

sorry, can't leave now. lots of work to do yet
maybe tonight just up to Hammond

Hammond? that is not to far from NOLA I would go up into Mississippi.

The current track takes a strong storm all the way up the state of Mississippi. Evac choices are...well, it's better to be inland, but just which direction is best at this point is unclear.

[storms in NC]

Jackson Miss would be better than Hammond,La Hammond is only 50 mile north by the way the crow flys

[LCfromFL]

Southwest Airlines still has seats available on the morning flight tomorrow from New Orleans to Jacksonville, FL - flight #2493 leaves at 8:50 a.m. I just picked a random return in a week or so - cost $119 each leg.

<exhibiting Southern charm> Y'all over in the potential path of that monster...c'mon over and sit a spell...

...praying for those in her path...

[Weatherboy1]

Here in Jupiter, FL, we got hardly anything from Katrina besides a few 30 mph gusts and a decent amount of rain. Waking up this morning and reading up on the storm and its projected path is leaving me, literally, awestruck. She's gotten bigger, area-wise. Her pressure has dropped rapidly. And everything (SSTs, shear forecasts, etc.) indicates she won't have much in her way at all to keep her from strengthening. Last but not least, the forecast track is now indicating a direct hit on one of the most vulnerable areas on our entire hurricane-prone U.S. coast. IF all these conditions hold, this is going to be a historic storm and unfortunately, potentially a major disaster. Please heed all your local emergency officials and don't take this lightly if you live in the New Orleans area. I've vacationed in your fine city a few times, and I just can't bear the thought of a serious disaster like this.

And while it's secondary to the obvious human impact, I'm also very concerned about the economic impact, particularly to the oil infrastructure in the area. Damage from Ivan helped drive oil prices up several dollars last fall and knocked thousands of barrels of production capacity off-line. This looks like it will affect a broader array of the rigs and transport facilities in the Northern Gulf -- if the path verifies -- turning a human catastrophe into potentially an economic one as well.

Please take care of you and your family in the region. We'll be pulling for you here in FL.

-Mike

[LCfromFL]

Southwest Airlines still has seats available on the morning flight tomorrow from New Orleans to Jacksonville, FL - flight #2493 leaves at 8:50 a.m. I just picked a random return in a week or so - cost $119 each leg.

<exhibiting Southern charm> Y'all over in the potential path of that monster...c'mon over and sit a spell...

...praying for those in her path...

There are also a few flights from New Orleans to Orlando, FL tomorrow - that cost is $124 for each leg. Take the family to hang out with Mickey for a couple of days. That will certainly keep your mind off things back home...and will provide great entertainment for the wee ones.