Not far enough south, track will again shift east.

[Javlin]

Just curious, for you folks thinking it might head into Miss/AL, why do you think this is the case? If the tropical models shift east, do you think they'll stop, and if so, why? What's to say they won't shift all the way back to Panama City? I admit, I am not brave enough to speculate where it will go, just wondering what some of the reasoning is here.

If it was five days out I would whole heartly agree just like the APP, thing FL when it was still oh the E.Coast.But friend time is running out and deviations become smaller.

[gulfcoastdave]

Huckster wrote:
Just curious, for you folks thinking it might head into Miss/AL, why do you think this is the case? If the tropical models shift east, do you think they'll stop, and if so, why? What's to say they won't shift all the way back to Panama City? I admit, I am not brave enough to speculate where it will go, just wondering what some of the reasoning is here.




If it was five days out I would whole heartly agree just like the APP, thing FL when it was still oh the E.Coast.But friend time is running out and deviations become smaller.


What I am looking at is the information posted on this site , the models and old forecast on this storm. aAlso , I looka t the recent storm history in this area. I am not an expert but look at all the data. I do not think anyone can say right now that the storm will hit city x on monday and be 100% correct.......we can not predict where a cane will hit just hours beofre landfall.......we have a good general area but not 100%.

I just do not want people east of LA to let their guard down. This storm can brush the outter area of LA and still hit AL/MS boder. Everyone here on the central gulfcoast needs to be ready. I would not be surprised to see the track shift east then west some over the next two days......if landfall was today i would agree more with LA but we are 48 hrs at least away from landfall if not longer.

Thus , I say we all need to be ready from destin to central LA

[tropicsgal05]

I know when Dennis came through he was suppose to go to Alabama and came into Navarre Beach. Everyone should keep a close eye on Katrina.

[chrisnnavarre]

8AM Advisory still 24.4N 84.6W--- No movement north still due west....

Models are beginning to respond...

Maybe she's going to hit in the most strategically significant place to do the most economic damage...

1. direct hit on Miss./Ala destroys the casino industry in Miss.
2. takes out most of the oil rigs on the way in...and shuts down the port of New Orleans.
3. Finishes off Pensacola, because she knows Ivan and Dennis have done a job on her....

[chrisnnavarre]

.1 degree in 3 hours at the 11am 24.5N....

if this keeps up....

24.6 at the 2pm...

24.7 at the 5pm

24.8 at the 8pm

24.9 at the 11pm

Almost on track for a NOLA hit...... in accordance with NHC post track from 11PM yesterday...

[TS Zack]

12z GFS has shifted back West. Just west of New Orleans.

Models look like they are agreeing on New Orleans.

[jkt21787]

Yes, everyone was predicting huge east shifts with the 12z GFS after the 12z tropicals. Not happening. Expect the 18z tropicals to shift back west. NOLA to still perhaps MS is the target.

[Opal storm]

I know when Dennis came through he was suppose to go to Alabama and came into Navarre Beach. Everyone should keep a close eye on Katrina.

Once the trough starts to pull on Katrina we could see those jogs to the due north and maybe east just like we saw with Dennis.

[artist]

anyone within the cone is a target -
PLEASE DON"T FORGET
THAT!

[JTD]

Yes, everyone was predicting huge east shifts with the 12z GFS after the 12z tropicals. Not happening. Expect the 18z tropicals to shift back west. NOLA to still perhaps MS is the target.

Agree 110%

[Sanibel]

Storm is in SW wobble...

[EDR1222]

The models look to be in very good agreement right now. Lets see if it remains that way.

[chrisnnavarre]

24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 West....

I was expecting 24.6 so she is still basically due west....

No apparent right drift of the track..... NOLA under the gun still...

[wayoutfront]

URNT12 KNHC 271745
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/1759Z
B. 24 DEG 27 MIN N
85 DEG 19 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2646 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 340 DEG 89 KT
G. 255 DEG 31 NM
H. 948 MB



Forecast
INITIAL 27/1500Z 24.5N 85.0W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 24.6N 86.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 25.3N 87.6W 115 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 26.7N 89.0W 120 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W 125 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 33.0N 89.5W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 31/1200Z 37.5N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1200Z 41.5N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


when the NHC forecast stops verifying, I will think NOLA is out of the woods

[wayoutfront]

URNT12 KNHC 271745
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/1759Z
B. 24 DEG 27 MIN N
85 DEG 19 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2646 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 340 DEG 89 KT
G. 255 DEG 31 NM
H. 948 MB



Forecast
INITIAL 27/1500Z 24.5N 85.0W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 24.6N 86.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 25.3N 87.6W 115 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 26.7N 89.0W 120 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W 125 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 33.0N 89.5W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 31/1200Z 37.5N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1200Z 41.5N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


when the NHC forecast stops verifying,, oh welll ....