Is the turn beginning finally?

[PTrackerLA]

Last 1 hr or so of frames clearly show a WSW movement. I don't think the turn has started at all. She will definately pass 85W before reaching 25N.

[ConvergenceZone]

the thing is, when it turns, it will turn in a heartbeat. The NHC along with the models seem almost certain now that a turn will happen for sure. If you look at the forecasted path, the turn from all of the models is pretty gradual, so it's doing exactly what it suppose to

[mtm4319]

Last 1 hr or so of frames clearly show a WSW movement. I don't think the turn has started at all. She will definately pass 85W before reaching 25N.

Yes, and I'd say SW even:



But NHC says she'll pass 25.0 N at 87.0 W, so your contention isn't very revealing.

[TampaFl]

Last 1 hr or so of frames clearly show a WSW movement. I don't think the turn has started at all. She will definately pass 85W before reaching 25N.

Yes, and I'd say SW even:



But NHC says she'll pass 25.0 N at 87.0 W, so your contention isn't very revealing.

mtm4319, great maps/plots of Katrina. How do you plot the points on Google Earth?. Keep the maps coming!

Robert

[mtm4319]

I refresh the radar overlay every 5-6 minutes, estimate the center at each refresh, then make a new placemark for each one.

Summary of Katrina's motion over the past 5 1/2 hours:



Rather erratic (moving as far north as 24.48, and dipping to 24.36 at one point, the farthest south it's ever been), but generally due west. Starting and ending points are right near 24.4 N.

[TampaFl]

Thanks

Robert

[Mac]

Look at the orientation of her comma. The indent of the comma was pointed to the SW last night, and now it's pointed nearly due west. If you subscribe to the claim that you can tell which direction a hurricane will head by looking at the comma, she looks to be heading west for the time being.

[tampastorm]

Last couple frames just so slightly north of west, can be nothing . Can mean everything wait and see.

[Nimbus]

Take out the trochoidal wobble motion and it looks like Katrina is beginning to come around more to the west.

Where she crosses back over the 25N latitude will be a good model verification point.

There would still be 36 to 48 hours before landfall so the landfall cone should be spot on by then.

[Javlin]

Try using the GHCC site and the pointer for cor.On long range radar things look different you could be as high as 30,000 ft + in the atm. now.Not that your pts are to bad I am getting about 24.46'ish and 84.7'.


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[KatDaddy]

I hate see Katrina effect anyone on the Gulf Coast but I am hoping the turn more N occurs before the Upper TX Coast is in her scope

[CYCLONE MIKE]

No, I still see the wsw movement with a jog to the west once in a while. Bumping against the ridge. Still under the easterly flow. Also notice the flat looking appearance on her north side. Northerly flow from the high pushing down on her from Alabama /Georgia keeping her from turning any appreciable amount to the west.

[Nimbus]

They are forecasting the ridge to migrate west yet there is a trough moving east into northwest Texas?

Guess the NHC will have more information at 11 AM.

If this new trough reaches the Texas coast it might be the final steering element.

[baygirl_1]

From this:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html
Click the -3hr button
It seems that the high was shifted west ever so slightly: AL/GA line to around Montgomery/Auburn/Pensacola line.

[HouTXmetro]

The problem is the H and Katrina are moving in tandem. That High is barely budging. But who knows

[deltadog03]

The problem is the H and Katrina are moving in tandem. That High is barely budging. But who knows

WOW!!!! one of the best points/comments that I have heard in 2 days....IT is moving in tandem...point is the ridge is holding VERY tough....look at the northern quad..and look at the WV over GA, AL...the flow is still very pronounced N-S....GREAT point

[loon]

I believe, however will need to see more frames, but the high had started to move West but gave up, I suspect to see Kat move a tad south again and west, and finally get on the other side of the high, at which point she turns north or rides it out to Mexico if the high starts moving with her again...

just my thoughts
loon

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yep, zoomed in on her eye and looks to have went wsw again within the past hour. I think the models are overpalyng the trough and weakness and underplaying the high. Does not seem to be breaking down in any hurry. Still northerly flow over her.

[skysummit]

Yep, zoomed in on her eye and looks to have went wsw again within the past hour. I think the models are overpalyng the trough and weakness and underplaying the high. Does not seem to be breaking down in any hurry. Still northerly flow over her.

But the radar shows a little north of due west. I realize the radar beam is near 30,000 feet near the eye so that may not be too accurate.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yes skysummit you are correct. It is too far to out to track movement with radar. I got a lesson on that last year from some pros during Ivan. Moving w/wsw per last loop.