Is the turn beginning finally?

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mtm4319
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#21 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:03 am

I'll defer to those with more knowledge on the accuracy of the long-range radar, but here are the very rough estimates of the eye from radar during the past three hours:

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#22 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:08 am

The symmetry is centered now because the ridge probably weakened.


All depends how much further west the ridge sends it before turning for the coast.

I think the ridge is weakening due to Katrina and the CONUS synoptic. The GOM synoptic is weak, so Katrina could be more sensitive to the CONUS synoptic.
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#23 Postby rtd2 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:09 am

Sanibel wrote:The symmetry is centered now because the ridge probably weakened.


All depends how much further west the ridge sends it before turning for the coast.

I think the ridge is weakening due to Katrina and the CONUS synoptic. The GOM synoptic is weak, so Katrina could be more sensitive to the CONUS synoptic.


alright Sanibel I always enjoy your insight but ENGLISH please on this ?
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wayoutfront

#24 Postby wayoutfront » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:13 am

The models really don't call for a turn until it passes 85 degrees w

its getting close to time
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#25 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:18 am

Katrina's becoming strong has probably sent upper outflow towards the ridge and weakened it. Katrina reacted by centering its eye.

The weather pattern over the US is stronger than that of the Gulf, so Katrina is now bumping in reaction to the features it is now feeling over the US.

It is now a question of how much further west the ridge can send Katrina before permanent recurve takes place. The trough over Texas is creeping forward, but forward enough to check the Gulf ridge and allow a slot in which Katrina will follow. Landfall will depend on how much each feature affects this scenario...
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#26 Postby Ixolib » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:19 am

Looks like a more right trend might be occurring...

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#27 Postby jopatura » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:22 am

You know, if Katrina is expanding width wise, which it is, while moving south, it's going to be a lot harder by the naked eye to tell what's moving south and what's moving outward. It might not be moving due west, but our eyes are thinking it is due to expanision. There just seems to be a southerly pull to it still.
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#28 Postby Huckster » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:26 am

Wobble Update: my bloodshot eye analysis (3:26 am) of the radar loop I was looking at earlier seems to indicate that the "turn" I saw may indeed have been a wobble. This thing will have to turn eventually, but remember it has wobbled to the right before during it's WSW/SW journey before. No matter when it turns, someone is going to get nailed.
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God lufode middaneard swa þæt he sealde his ancennedan Sunu, þæt nan ne forwurðe þe on hine gelyfð, ac hæbbe þæt ece lif. - Old English/Anglo-Saxon, John 3:16
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#29 Postby mobilebay » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:27 am

From one Vortex message to another. katrina moved 4 minutes north, and 8 minutes west. That is confirmed data.
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#30 Postby Ixolib » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:28 am

mobilebay wrote:From one Vortex message to another. katrina moved 4 minutes north, and 8 minutes west. That is confirmed data.


...and no minutes south!!
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#31 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:28 am

SW for the past 40 minutes now.
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#32 Postby rtd2 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:30 am

mobilebay wrote:From one Vortex message to another. katrina moved 4 minutes north, and 8 minutes west. That is confirmed data.



Translated =WNW
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#33 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:33 am

mobilebay wrote:From one Vortex message to another. katrina moved 4 minutes north, and 8 minutes west. That is confirmed data.


What were the times on the vortexes? It's probably somewhere between 5:57 and 7:15 UTC, as the eye was moving WNW on radar. But since then it's been going SW again.

Image

Estimated position of eye:

0458 UTC: 24.4117 N
0830 UTC: 24.4112 N
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#34 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:35 am

Big wobble back SW last few radar frames.

I'm afraid what you are seeing is intensification wobbles.

Have to get some sleep. I fully expect at least 125mph tomorrow.

The perfect CDO symmetry is telling you the ridge has slacked. It should go west from these wobbles and start to turn...
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#35 Postby mobilebay » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:35 am

Extrap that and you have a due west movement.
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#36 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:35 am

They just said on the weather channel that the turn very well may be underway. Based on the last couple of Sat frames, I"m inclined to agree.
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#37 Postby rtd2 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:59 am

Sanibel wrote:Big wobble back SW last few radar frames.

I'm afraid what you are seeing is intensification wobbles.

Have to get some sleep. I fully expect at least 125mph tomorrow.

The perfect CDO symmetry is telling you the ridge has slacked. It should go west from these wobbles and start to turn...




5AM Now Officaily Moving WEST.
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#38 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 4:17 am

WSR-88D radar imagery from Key West... and the series of aircraft
fixes... indicate that Katrina is wobbling about a heading just
south of due west... so the long-anticipated turn to the west might
be starting.


"Long-anticipated turn to the west might be starting"???

Hello?? I thought this was supposed to start turning to the north sometime soon!!

Still seeing a motion to the WSW ever so slightly...
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#39 Postby rtd2 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 4:19 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:WSR-88D radar imagery from Key West... and the series of aircraft
fixes... indicate that Katrina is wobbling about a heading just
south of due west... so the long-anticipated turn to the west might
be starting.


"Long-anticipated turn to the west might be starting"???

Hello?? I thought this was supposed to start turning to the north sometime soon!!

Still seeing a motion to the WSW ever so slightly...



NHC forecasted WSW for All friday night with a GRADUAL turn to the W the WNW on SATURDAY! Looks like they are ON TIME!
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#40 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 4:25 am

rtd2 wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:WSR-88D radar imagery from Key West... and the series of aircraft
fixes... indicate that Katrina is wobbling about a heading just
south of due west... so the long-anticipated turn to the west might
be starting.


"Long-anticipated turn to the west might be starting"???

Hello?? I thought this was supposed to start turning to the north sometime soon!!

Still seeing a motion to the WSW ever so slightly...





NHC forecasted WSW for All friday night with a GRADUAL turn to the W the WNW on SATURDAY! Looks like they are ON TIME!


IMO there is no "gradual" turn as of yet... Kat seems to still be losing lat...
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