Should the folks on the Yucatan or Eastern Mexico prepare?

[JTD]

One thing I've been wondering all day:

What is to say that this WSW/SW movement will stop. So far it shows no signs of doing so. Is it possible that Katrina might just make landfall on the Yucatan or Eastern Mexico and avoid the U.S. all together?

I heard one opinion on this earlier this evening and agree but I just thought I'd get other thoughts.

[Ixolib]

One thing I've been wondering all day:

What is to say that this WSW/SW movement will stop. So far it shows no signs of doing so. Is it possible that Katrina might just make landfall on the Yucatan or Eastern Mexico and avoid the U.S. all together?

I heard one opinion on this earlier this evening and agree but I just thought I'd get other thoughts.

Well, the NHC must have pretty good reason for their outlook. No mention in the 11pm for a track anywhere but wsw then w then nw then n.

[Mac]

Nawwww. Katrina is heading SW because the ridge is stronger than originally anticipated. But she will feel her way along the ridge and eventually recurve north. I do not believe Mexico is in any immediate danger.

[wxmann_91]

From the latest intermediate advisory:

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

Hmmm, I don't know.

[ConvergenceZone]

I was wondering the same thing. I heard on a weather report just a few minutes ago from one of the news stations that it continues to track west-south-west and isn't making the predicted turn. It suppose to be going west by now. Is there a chance that the ridge may not weaken afterall, steering the cane into Mexico? I mean, I've heard forecasters forecast weakening ridges many times only find out that it didn't happen after all. Hmmmm, may wake up to a different forecast tomorrow morning, but everyone should still watch the updates nonetheless, because you never know.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, I heard them just mention on the weather channel "IF the high pressure weakens" regarding the predicted turn. I know it's not the expected track at the moment, but folks in Mexico just need to keep their eye out just in case the high pressure doesn't weaken and the hurricane heads towards them instead of the USA , just a thought.

[JTD]

Just to clarify, I don't live on the Yucatan or in Eastern Mexico

Looks more due west now than earlier so we'll see but yeah I'm inclined to go with the NHC track.

[mtm4319]

The net motion has been pretty close to due west for the past 2 hours. Of course, we don't know whether that's a wobble or not, but it's the first noteworthy (lasting more than maybe 30 minutes) due-west movement I've seen in at least 24 hours.

[JTD]

The net motion has been pretty close to due west for the past 2 hours. Of course, we don't know whether that's a wobble or not, but it's the first noteworthy (lasting more than maybe 30 minutes) due-west movement I've seen in at least 24 hours.

Yeah, I was grasping at straws here, I think. It's just that the New Orleans hit is uminaginable.

[ConvergenceZone]

well, no place this monster goes will be good news, whether it's Mexico or the USA. Sometimes I wonder though if the NHC chooses to be extra-cautious and to learn towards the USA landfall even if they think there's only small chancel chance it might happen. I can only imagine the kind of heat they would take if they predicted the storm to go to straight to Mexico and totally neglected the outside chance of it turning north and heading towards the USA, and then having the storm do just what they said it wouldn't do. ...makes me wonder.

[ConvergenceZone]

well, I'm more than likely wrong. I just hate to see anyone caught off guard in the gulf is all.

[wayoutfront]

No you can't dismiss all the models, and they are pretty much in agreement now

[HouTXmetro]

What radars/satellites are you guys looking at? I still see a WSW movement. The NHC also says it is still moving WSW right?

[wayoutfront]

No you can't dismiss all the models, and they are pretty much in agreement now..

kinda of like the SW jog... after making landfall

[wayoutfront]

What radars/satellites are you guys looking at? I still see a WSW movement. The NHC also says it is still moving WSW right?

24 deg 48 min 8pm
24.4°N 2am
pretty much due west

[ConvergenceZone]

wayoutfront. Yea, perhaps it's just wishful thinking on my part(no disrepect to the populated areas of Mexico), but it would have more of a chance of hitting an unpopulated area there in Mexico than in the USA. I just hate to see this. I have friends and relatives along the gulf coast and can deal with a cat 1 or minimal 2 hitting, but not the monster they are predicting.

[skysummit]

What radars/satellites are you guys looking at? I still see a WSW movement. The NHC also says it is still moving WSW right?

Long range Key West is showing a west movement...maybe slightly north of west.

[ConvergenceZone]

looks like that radar is starting to move out of range. Wish we had another radar to look to.

[wayoutfront]

wayoutfront. Yea, perhaps it's just wishful thinking on my part(no disrepect to the populated areas of Mexico), but it would have more of a chance of hitting an unpopulated area there in Mexico than in the USA. I just hate to see this. I have friends and relatives along the gulf coast and can deal with a cat 1 or minimal 2 hitting, but not the monster they are predicting.

yeah i know...

TWC is still reporting WSW , but they don't change their forecast until the NHC updates...

at 0500 you will see them go hyper

[emevezeta]

In my city (Mérida Yucatan Mexico) there are no alarming news of katrina; Reason why? All storm come from SW and people are enjoying a pretty weekend beach. If katrina track does not change, we will have single 24 hours to evacuate 500000 people off the coast, and other 500000 would prepare to recive Ms Katrina inland 48 hours... right now (08:45 Z) a little rain it begins.. so as always, single I can trust in NWS and oficial models... (but this one is uncertain!!) ...Greetings.